And so...the "recession" begins

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JustDave said:
Is this what they call a whipsaw in market talk? An upward spike in a downward trend that draws those still waiting for a bottom back into the market, and then it plunges the next day? I don't know which way we are going.
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I'm not in the stock market, but I've always heard the common phrase, "the stock market doesn't like uncertainty." A 90 day reprieve on tariffs to some countries, while at the same time increasing tariffs on China (the one country we import the most from) didn't do much to dispel uncertainty.
 
gruntlabor said:
China has two choices: It can adapt itself to the current state of affairs or move toward war. To lose face is not amusing but war does not agree with its long-term plans. What to do? :unsure:
I would guess Option One: do nothing but continue to bite back with words and small tantalizing actions.
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Everything is speculation at this point, and events could still unfold in any number of directions -- perhaps even in ways few would expect. I’d agree that war doesn’t appear to align with China’s long term strategic aims, but in truth how much do we really know about the full scope of those aims?

Nations under pressure don’t always act rationally, and what we see on the surface often doesn’t reflect the discussions taking place behind government closed doors, in backrooms and corridors of power. We’re not privy to those conversations or the battle they might be in in containing any hawks. History is full of moments that caught the world off guard, despite what many believed they understood at the time.

Just off the top of my head, Britain and Suez in 1956. The Falklands in ’82. Russia and Ukraine -- even when troops were massing on the border, there were still those convinced an invasion wouldn’t happen. And Japan before WWII -- the attack on Pearl Harbor was either a complete shock and huge surprise to the US or it wasn’t.

Whatever we might think with our individual thoughts, it's not necessarily what others in power might think of the same situation. No one is in possession of a crystal ball that can shed light on what the true reality might be and might turn into and become.
 
JustDave said:
Is this what they call a whipsaw in market talk? An upward spike in a downward trend that draws those still waiting for a bottom back into the market, and then it plunges the next day? I don't know which way we are going.
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It's known as profit taking. When there is such a steep rise, as there was yesterday, it was almost guaranteed there would be a selloff today. The only thing not known is how much of a selloff there would be.

Where it goes from here will probably largely depend on news, rumors, and speculation regarding a recession. We are a long way from assessing all the damage done by the economic folly of this move.

In addition to new car imports backing up at ports, some car companies are moving them to U.S. bonded warehouses where they can sit for a time without tariffs, and hope something will get resolved before they have to pay the huge amounts of money. Others have cancelled orders and will try to wait this out.

Lumber prices and hardware to build homes are also significantly impacted, and supply chains too numerous to mention are going to affect businesses both large and small (Some won't survive).

The ripple effects from this policy disaster will be felt for quite some time. No one knows quite how bad it will be, but as those ripples are experienced, I expect it will be met with significant swings in the market hoping to find solid ground again.
 
I thought stores like Dollar Tree could be forced out of business with tariffs, but was surprised to find an opposite view here, but it goes on to say "current trade policies may get the chain to a $1.50 or $1.75 price point,"

And this was found in the closing remarks: "Dollar Tree shares rose nearly 8% in trading Monday. Still, the shares are more than 40% below their levels seen a year ago."
 
Magna-Carta said:
Everything is speculation at this point, and events could still unfold in any number of directions -- perhaps even in ways few would expect. I’d agree that war doesn’t appear to align with China’s long term strategic aims, but in truth how much do we really know about the full scope of those aims?
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Worldwide cooperation and peace by means of total surveillance and control?
 
Magna-Carta said:
Nations under pressure don’t always act rationally, and what we see on the surface often doesn’t reflect the discussions taking place behind government closed doors, in backrooms and corridors of power. We’re not privy to those conversations or the battle they might be in in containing any hawks. History is full of moments that caught the world off guard, despite what many believed they understood at the time.
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Even some nations who are NOT under pressure don't always act rationally, which is what started this thread. ;)
 
bobcat said:
In addition to new car imports backing up at ports, some car companies are moving them to U.S. bonded warehouses where they can sit for a time without tariffs, and hope something will get resolved before they have to pay the huge amounts of money. Others have cancelled orders and will try to wait this out.
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Yep. Audi is already holding their new cars at ports. They have a brand new compact sedan that should have reached dealerships this month. People already have orders in for them. Couldn't be happier that I traded for an existing model back in March.

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...ng-cars-us-ports-due-autos-tariff-2025-04-07/
 
MACKTEXAS said:
I thought stores like Dollar Tree could be forced out of business with tariffs, but was surprised to find an opposite view here, but it goes on to say "current trade policies may get the chain to a $1.50 or $1.75 price point,"

And this was found in the closing remarks: "Dollar Tree shares rose nearly 8% in trading Monday. Still, the shares are more than 40% below their levels seen a year ago."
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I thought the purpose of tariffs is to move manufacturing back to the U.S., but I can't imagine how any manufacturers can produce $1.50 products in the U.S. and be profitable.
 
OldOld said:
I thought we were talking about affordability.
But, let me tell you about my sister. After her first surgery for ovarian cancer, She went through a series of chemotherapy. Then, on her last blood test and other tests, they told my sister that they would notify her if there was any abnormalities, and there is no need for her to call them. No phone calls no nothing from them. Then, 3 months later, my sister started having constant fever so she went back to the hospital to seek help. It turned out her last test result 3 month prior came out badly (but nobody followed up). My sister passed away 3 months afterwards. This was in California, U.S.of A.
Of course nobody could say she would have had a different outcome if the hospital had notified her of the test results.
But... the hospital did not call.
Now, my recent experience with my primary care provider (a practicing nurse, not even a doctor), she told me she would give me a referral to see a ear doctor for hearing test. One month later, nothing happened, I had to call this primary care provider office to make them send out such referral. And during Covid, we could do the visit to this provider thing online or via the phone. I made an appointment with her office on this date, they said this nurse provider would call in the PM between 1pm and 5pm. At 4:50pm, still nobody called, so I called them, the nurse came picked up my call. What on earth?
I don't know if I want to wait on these healthcare providers or better just die fast.
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These stories about medical incompetence really irk me! I'm sorry you've had the experiences you did. It is a shame what happened in your sister's case.
 
OneEyedDiva said:
When the market crashes, that's the time to jump back in!
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let me know when they ring the all clear bell .

we never know if it is another lost decade for stocks or 20 years of flat markets like we had in the 1960’s

more money is lost than made trying to buy low and sell high

we thought it as a good time to go back in when markets fell 2000 points in 2008 .

no one imagined we had 4,000 more to go .

actually despite the myth above the most money is made buying high and selling higher as the trend is your friend .

most who sit on cash don’t throw it all back in the same amount they pulled out day one , rather they dip their toes.

so the biggest gains come when it looks like a suckers rally and nothing changed economically.

staying invested and just riding the cycle has always produced the best results as opposed to thinking you are going to time your way back in .
 
OldOld said:
Dear senior, how many cycles can you still ride?
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so far all of them .

even at 65 we have money for eating one to two decades out or maybe never need it . even the 4% safe withdrawal rate has had you when using 50/50 end with more money then you started with 30 years later 90% of the 123 rolling 30 year cycles to date

67% of the time you ended with 2x what you started with

that is still long term money and should still be in it for growth.

top retirement researchers have found seniors. can use more equities as they age not less .

i suggest reading about the red zone by famous retirement planning researchers michael kitces and dr. wade pfau

The Portfolio Size Effect And Optimal Equity Glidepaths
 

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