An Interesting Paper On Texas' Reopening

[JonDouglas]

There is An National Bureau Of Economic Research working paper entitled STATEWIDE REOPENING DURING MASS VACCINATION:EVIDENCE ON MOBILITY, PUBLIC HEALTH AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY FROM TEXAS. The paper has substantive references and data. Below is a snippet from the conclusions.

Texas became the first state to entirely repeal its central NPIs — in-person capacity constraints on business and a mask-wearing mandate in public spaces — following their 30 implementation in 2020. We document that the Texas reopening had, at most, a small effect on stay-at-home behavior and had no impact on foot traffic at restaurants, bars, retail establishments, entertainment venues, business services, personal care services, or grocery stores. We also find no evidence of increased COVID-19 case growth following the reopening, consistent with (i) this being a period of mass vaccination, and (ii) the reopening having little impact on net social mobility. These null results generally persisted among more urbanized and less urbanized counties, as well as counties that supported Donald Trump or Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. Finally, we fail to detect evidence that the reopening affected short-run state-level employment, as measured by UI claims filed, the overall state unemployment rate, and the employment-to-population ratio. Together, this study’s findings suggest that the predictions of reopening advocates and opponents failed to materialize. The policy appears to have had little impact on social mobility, COVID-19 spread, or on short-run economic activity​

 

[Lethe200]

One needs to consider that the rates of infection, hospitalization, and deaths among the unvaccinated remain at very high levels, equal to the alarming #s seen this past winter. (see separate post that follows)

Also, although infections etc. have dropped in TX and FLA, just as they have in CA (where restrictions have continued), CA saw a larger surge yet a faster and more lasting drop as the pace of vaccination programs increased, and tourism dropped*.

* It's a reminder that spreader events that occur in one place, and then participants disperse to go back home, are NOT counted by the state where a spreader event took place. And of course, those who are asymptomatic but can infect others in varying degrees of severity, are difficult to track.

I'm personally comfortable with the need for lockdown. The greater good is meaningful to me as we have a number of immuno-compromised friends. YMMV, of course.

California has lowest COVID-19 rate in America: Here’s why
Big turnaround due to continued vaccine rollout, masks and immunity from past surges, experts say
Bay Area News Group: April 28, 2021
https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2021/04/28/california-has-lowest-covid-rate-in-america-heres-why/

(excerpt)
After a winter of misery during the worst pandemic in a century, California is now seeing a major surge of hope this spring. Buoyed by a steady pace of vaccinations and the immunity of people who already have had the disease, California now has the lowest rate of COVID-19 cases anywhere in the United States. “The worst of it is behind us,” said Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at UC San Francisco.

California’s rate of 33 cases per 100,000 people Wednesday morning was less than a third of the U.S. average of 116 cases. By comparison, Texas had more than double California’s rate, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, while Illinois and New York were four times higher, Florida five times and Michigan 10 times.

Meanwhile, California’s positive test rate also is the lowest of any state — just 0.9% of people, or fewer than 1 in 100 who were tested for COVID-19 in the past week, had the disease. That’s a quarter of the national average and down from 14% statewide four months ago. “It’s fabulous. It’s just outstanding,” said Dr. John Swartzberg, a professor emeritus of public health at UC Berkeley. “It’s been a remarkable few weeks.”

Deaths and serious illness, which once overwhelmed hospitals, are in sustained retreat. The number of people who are dying each day in California from COVID-19 has fallen 90% since the peak in January.

 

[Lethe200]

The unseen covid-19 risk for unvaccinated people
Washington Post May 21, 2021
(excerpt)
The country’s declining covid-19 case rates present an unrealistically optimistic perspective for half of the nation — the half that is still not vaccinated.

As more people receive vaccines, covid-19 cases are occurring mostly in the increasingly narrow slice of the unprotected population. So The Washington Post adjusted its case, death and hospitalization rates to account for that — and found that in some places, the virus continues to rage among those who haven’t received a shot.

The rosy national figures showing declining case numbers led the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to loosen mask recommendations last week and President Biden to advise people to take off their masks and smile.

But adjustments for vaccinations show the rate among susceptible, unvaccinated people is 69 percent higher than the standard figures being publicized. With that adjustment, the national death rate is roughly the same as it was two months ago and is barely inching down. The adjusted hospitalization rate is as high as it was three months ago. The case rate is still declining after the adjustment.

Unvaccinated people are getting the wrong message, experts said.

“They think it’s safe to take off the mask. It’s not,” said Lynn Goldman, dean of the Milken Institute School of Public Health at George Washington University. “It looks like fewer numbers, looks like it’s getting better, but it’s not necessarily better for those who aren’t vaccinated.”

States with high rates among unvaccinated people

The adjusted rates in several states show the pandemic is spreading as fast among the unvaccinated as it did during the winter surge. Maine, Colorado, Michigan and Washington state all have covid-19 case spikes among the unvaccinated, with adjusted rates about double the adjusted national rate. The adjusted rates of Minnesota, Oregon and Pennsylvania are slightly lower.

Note: Washington Post is subscriber only, but here is the URL in case you are a subscriber but missed reading it: https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...e4e276b32a1956/15/70/60a7dd019d2fdae302596ac3