This is a long long read, but worth the time.
https://www.bluezones.com/2020/06/c...op-epidemiologist-who-predicted-the-pandemic/
https://www.bluezones.com/2020/06/c...op-epidemiologist-who-predicted-the-pandemic/
Answers from Top Epidemiologist Who Predicted the Pandemic
- Thread starter Becky1951
- Start date
Em in Ohio
Senior Member
- Location
- OH HI OH
Sobering stuff:
"We can expect COVID-19 to infect 60% ā 70% of Americans. Thatās around 200 million Americans...We can expect between 800,000 and 1.6 million Americans to die in the next 18 months if we donāt have a successful vaccine."
"But I can say with certainty, what I call the laws of virus physics, is that this is going to continue to transmit until we see a large part of the population infected. When you think about only 5% of this countryās been infected to date, and you understand the pain, the suffering, the death, and economic disruption thatās occurred with just 5%, then you can imagine what itās going to take for us to get to 60 or 70%. "
Haven't read the whole article, but saving it for when my eyes are rested. Thanks for providing this excellent information!
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Aunt Bea
SF VIP
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- Near Mount Pilot
Dr. Michael Osterholm was on Fox News Sunday this morning.
The link to the interview is below.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/scientists-coronavirus-cases-surge-some-states
The link to the interview is below.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/scientists-coronavirus-cases-surge-some-states
AnnieA
Well-known Member
- Location
- Down South
Excellent information. Thank you!
Lakeland living
Life is good
- Location
- Ontario Canada
Straight forward as far as I can tell
Thank you Beck1951
Thank you Beck1951
AnnieA
Well-known Member
- Location
- Down South
From the OP article:
That--along with recent stories in the news that there's a potentially more infectious mutation--got me interested in the mutability of coronaviruses and I found this article from Science News. I'd read that coronaviruse mutations are not nearly so dramatic as influenza which undergoes shifting antigen mutations that can cause epidemics quickly blow up in severity or to quickly burn out.
Is the coronavirus mutating? Yes. But hereās why you donāt need to panic
Excerpts:
That--along with recent stories in the news that there's a potentially more infectious mutation--got me interested in the mutability of coronaviruses and I found this article from Science News. I'd read that coronaviruse mutations are not nearly so dramatic as influenza which undergoes shifting antigen mutations that can cause epidemics quickly blow up in severity or to quickly burn out.
Is the coronavirus mutating? Yes. But hereās why you donāt need to panic
Excerpts:
Viruses are always changing. When a virus infects a cell, it begins making copies of its genetic instructions. Most viruses donāt have the necessary tools to proofread each string of RNA for mistakes, so the process is error-prone and differences build up over time.
Coronaviruses like SARS-CoV-2, on the other hand, do have a proofreading enzyme ā a rarity for RNA viruses. But that doesnāt mean their genomes donāt have errors. Changes still accumulate, just more slowly than in other RNA viruses such as influenza. āStrains,ā āvariantsā or ālineagesā are all terms researchers might use to describe viruses that have identical or closely related strings of RNA.
But for the general public, a word like āstrainā is often interpreted to mean a whole new scourge. āI think the use of the term āstrainā does little more than cause panic,ā says Jeremy Luban, a virologist at the University of Massachusetts Medical School in Worcester.
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