Best Investment for Today?

Gardenlover

Gardenlover

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The world is changing and I need a little help from my friends.

What is the best investment for today's volatile world? Granted this isn't an investment forum, but I'd still like to hear what others have to say on the topic.

Stocks? They rise and fall like the tide. A somewhat educated throw of the dice in the best of times.

Bonds? Governments and corporations become over extended and the issuer fails to meet its obligations.

Fiat money? Banks fail, inflation, etc. then a wheelbarrow full might buy you a loaf a bread as it becomes worthless overnight. I look at Zimbabwe currency as a lose example.

Gold? Holds it's value, but hard to purchase items unless you buy in bulk and then how is the gold verified to be indeed real gold?

Property? Not very liquid, although you could barter crops you grow, livestock you raise, etc.

[edit] A friend's thoughts - Inflation in food and probably daily used items is coming one way or another. The best investment may be to invest in yourself. Learning something that you can use to help yourself, your family or even to take advantage of any opportunities that come your way. I think the days of plunking down dollars on an investment and sitting back collecting revenue are are gone for a good while.
 

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A friend's thoughts - Inflation in food and probably daily used items is coming one way or another. The best investment may be to invest in yourself. Learning something that you can use to help yourself, your family or even to take advantage of any opportunities that come your way. I think the days of plunking down dollars on an investment and sitting back collecting revenue are are gone for a good while.
 
Gardenlover said:
Property? Not very liquid, although you could barter crops you grow, livestock you raise, etc.
Click to expand...
Property out a ways is hot right now.
It's always been a good investment, especially if yer handy enough to throw up a cabin.
But a lot of folks are turning bare property
I've had several offers on some property of mine, but later this summer I'll build on it, then sell
 
At this point, I don't see Any good near term investments. This virus is affecting Everything, and until a cure is found, the entire economy is going to be in a major state of flux. It looks like the Stay Home directives might be lifted in the near future, but that could easily cause a 2nd wave of this illness, which might be even worse. Even though the stock markets have recovered a portion of their losses, there is a lot of consensus among the "experts" that another, even worse, dip is quite likely in coming months.

Real estate is always in demand, but with this current economy, I don't see many people rushing to take on mortgage debt. If there is any upturn in property, it might be in suburban or rural properties, as many city dwellers begin to recognize the hazards of living in such crowded conditions. Precious metals have not risen during this crisis...in fact, Silver is still only about 75% of where it was earlier this year.

Government and Municipal bonds might be fairly safe, but as the government and cities/states take on more and more debt with decreased revenues due to lack of sales taxes, etc., their returns may be little more than money in a bank. There are some good stocks with excellent dividend returns, but they, too, may take a hit the longer this economy lags.

There will be a few....very few....who manage to pad their wallets in coming months, but losses for most is a more likely scenario.

Personally, I am watching the CBOE VIX numbers for a sign of when the economy and markets may be ready to show signs of recovery.
 
i would go with a long time proven portfolio that allows for unceratinty and does not rule it out

25% in a total market or s&p fund DOWN 2.74% THE LAST YEAR ...DOWN 13% YTD

25% in long term treasuries ... these are up 42% over the last year, UP 27% YTD

25% gold in GLD OR IAU ...UP 30% THE LAST YEAR. UP 15% YTD

25% SHORT TERM TREASURIES IN BIL OR SHV UP 2.41 THE LAST YEAR , UP .80 YTD

it covers all the bases and can make money up or down ...it has been in use now for more than 40 years.


as we see over and over happen what we see and think is not what markets see and think .... markets flip up or do the unexpected way before there is even a hint to our eyes anything is better ....

in fact markets see the best gains when profits are down

(-10%) to (-25%) drop in profits saw an average of 28.6% gains in malkiel's legendary book a random walk down wall street. the data was later reconfirmed by ned davis research .

personally i think those sitting on all cash waiting for the proverbial low will once again have missed it. i think that ship sailed without them .

if markets wanted to sell off thousands more points it would have likely done so already in my opinion .

i wouldn't bet the ranch on equities at this stage but i certainly would be invested at a modest level and not think the low is yet to come ....it may be to late for that to play out .

if it does, keep some powder dry , but i wouldn't plan around that fact.

i like planning around making money up or down at times like this which is why i like the above portfolio .... but that does not mean one has to put every penny in it .. usually investors keep the money they want to bullet-proof in it , while they swing for the fences with money outside the portfolio ....

i would not use that model if i was in my growth stages .... 100% equity and let it ride would be my choice , but for retirement it works very well
 
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here are some more ALL WEATHER PORTFOLIOS .


ray dalio's all weather portfolio

Asset Allocation

30% Total Stock Market
40% Long Term Bonds
15% Intermediate Bonds
7.5% Commodities
7.5% Gold
---------------------------------------------------------
the golden butterfly

Asset Allocation

20% Total Stock Market
20% Small Cap Value
20% Long Term Bonds
20% Short Term Bonds
20% Gold
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

the pin wheel portfolio

Asset Allocation

15% Total Stock Market
10% Small Cap Value
15% International
10% Emerging Markets
15% Intermediate Bonds
10% Cash
15% REITs
10% Gold
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
the desert portfolio

Asset Allocation

Stocks
30% Domestic Total Stock Market
Bonds
60% Intermediate Term
Real Assets
10% Gold
--------------------------------------------------------------------
the permanent portfolio

Asset Allocation

25% Total Stock Market
25% Long Term Bonds
25% Cash
25% Gold


pinwheel variations

15% Total US Stock Market ITOT
10% Small Cap Value IJS
15% Total World Stock Market VT
10% Emerging Markets SCHE
15% Intermediate US Treasuries just buy the underlying
10% T-Bills / Cash just buy the underlying and/or use an online bank
15% REIT SCHH
10% Gold physical or GLDM


lastly THE BLACK SWAN ETF

SWANX
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here are the details and comparisons of the models . tyler , who created portfolio charts is the founder of the golden butterfly and pinwheel portfolios

https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolios/
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I have been giving some serious thought and research into this....
I have stopped my 401 contributions before tax and applying it all to my loan balance... will be paid off in under 6 months..
The money is still going into my fund, buying in at lower general stock prices... Let them handle the investing...
once paid off then I may just retire debt free... except for my tractor.... And it can make its own money...
 

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