California & Florida Covid-19 stats are close despite very different restrictions.

[AnnieA]

Newsweek article: Florida Sees Same COVID Case Rate as California, Despite No Statewide Restictions

Excerpt:

According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Florida has a COVID-19 case count of around 9,018 per 100,000 residents and around 150 deaths per 100,000 residents.​

​

On the other hand, California, which has continue to impose much stricter restrictions on businesses and has a statewide mask mandate, the data shows similar case and death counts. According to the CDC data, California has around 8,918 COVID-19 cases and at least 139 deaths per 100,000 residents.​

 

[StarSong]

With so many variables it's hard to know exactly what to make of this.

 

[asp3]

Here are some of the variables which might explain some of the differences.

1. Florida has a much higher percentage of people 65 and older. According to the map below Florida has 20-21% of it's population over 65 whereas California has between 13 and 15% (I can't tell which range California falls into.)

https://insurify.com/insights/states-with-oldest-population-2020/

So although Florida would have a chance at higher death rates per 100,000 they may also have a higher percentage of people who are more cautious even though their restrictions are lower. We would need good reporting on that to determine how likely that is.

Another thing about such a higher percentage of those over 65 is there will be less people who are employed so who won't potentially have to increase their chances of exposure due to working. I don't think we need any reporting to agree that's a very likely consequence of an older population.

I'm fairly sure that there are more retirement communities in Florida than here in California so there may be less chance of exposure due to living around people who are more cautious. This is another one where better reporting would be needed to verify if this is a good reason.

Another variable that's different between the two is average household size. Florida is at 2.65 and California at 2.96. So California households are on average 11% larger than those in Florida. The more people who live together the higher chance of infecting others within the same household.

https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/united-states/quick-facts/all-states/average-household-size#map

So there are a few potential reasons to explain the differences.

 

[AnnieA]

Good points, @asp3 but it still seems much closer than would be expected given drastic differences in restrictions. Vaccination rates are almost identical.

 

[asp3]

Good points, @asp3 but it still seems much closer than would be expected given drastic differences in restrictions. Vaccination rates are almost identical.

I'm fairly sure the numbers given in the OP are cumulative which include many months without any vaccinations.

There are other things I was looking for especially the average county household populations and county age distributions for the most affected counties in each state but I wasn't able to find enough about those to report any numbers yet.