Covid Predictions - How good are the experts?

Brookswood

Brookswood

Senior Member
Since this this corona virus problem started, there have been many experts making predictions about what will happen next. The ones I have listed to are those with usually more than one solid credential - advanced degrees, working in the medical field, researchers, well regarded by peers, etc.

As of today, I am tracking four predictions:

#1 - We will hit herd immunity by April of this year. Yea!

#2 - We will have a good Spring and Summer. One or more of the variances may cause outbreaks here and there in the USA. The Covid variances might cause new problems in late Fall and Winter as people crowd together indoors more, if one or more of these variances is very vigorous and can outwit the vaccine.

#3 - Things are already starting to turn down now (end of March 2021) and if we don't tighten up restrictions for a few more months until we have many more people vaccinated, Summer and beyond could see another big surge of the virus.

#4 - We are going to be hit by a Covid Hurricane in April. We are only 4-6 weeks behind Europe. It's coming. It will be worse than the other peaks, and we can't stop it.

The above are all predictions I have heard in this month of March. It will be interesting to see who is the most accurate.
 

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SetWave said:
Even for the experienced, well educated, well intentioned, credentialed experts predicting the unpredictable is difficult. As for myself, I'm just hoping for the best.
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Very true. Still, I think it's worthwhile to see who hits the mark more often and who misses it more often.
 

It's my understanding that African variant is worse. It spreads way faster & is more deadly? I don't recall the link. I believe I read it in Huffington post a few weeks back. I've just been waiting for us to get hit. I feel like this is the calm before the storm. Soon as they open back up & the masks & distancing disappear we're in trouble. JMO
 
Predicting the "future" of this virus is almost like predicting the stock market. There are so many unknows about this illness that any accurate forecasts about weeks/months from now are anyone's guess. However, it's a pretty safe bet that getting vaccinated, wearing masks, and avoiding crowds are the best ways to avoid infection. So far, it looks like the current vaccinations substantially lessen the chances of having issues with these "variants", but I kind of expect to see "booster" shots needed in the future.

If this virus continues to spike, largely due to a large number of people failing to take it seriously, I would Not object to those people having to isolate themselves, or being subjected to heavy fines if they fail to do so.
 
Don M. said:
Predicting the "future" of this virus is almost like predicting the stock market. There are so many unknows about this illness that any accurate forecasts about weeks/months from now are anyone's guess. However, it's a pretty safe bet that getting vaccinated, wearing masks, and avoiding crowds are the best ways to avoid infection. So far, it looks like the current vaccinations substantially lessen the chances of having issues with these "variants", but I kind of expect to see "booster" shots needed in the future.

If this virus continues to spike, largely due to a large number of people failing to take it seriously, I would Not object to those people having to isolate themselves, or being subjected to heavy fines if they fail to do so.
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I won't be surprised if there's a booster.
 
Most of the expert wuhan flu prognosticators are about as accurate as Jeane Dixon used to be. If you make a prediction on every possible outcome, then your chances of one of them being close is high. Right now, Dr Fauci's ego is flying high on the wings of his current temporary celebrity status. While he's very well educated, usually good at what he does, and probably a smart person, I personally don't trust his forecasts regarding the current pandemic. IMO the worldometer has pretty accurate data that lets you see which way the "curve" is going at any given time, and with that, you can make your own predictions and be as close as the Jeane Dixon imitators.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

image_2021-03-25_190326.jpeg
 
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The Covid "Experts" are as good as the earthquake "Experts" who rant on & on after each earthquake to dazzle us with their incredible knowledge & gloom & doom about the big one.
In fact, I'm just as good & I don't have a whole bunch of capital letters after my name:
"I know that we are going to have an earthquake in the next 25 years."
 
Prediction: In all probability, the truth will be somewhere between the extremes (e.g. it will go away vs we're all gonna die). The reality is that perception of this will have a lot to do with politics and economics. You will recall the words of one "expert" who initally said it's just like a cold or flu (which for most people is true) to saying something like double-masking lockdowns were needed in the face of the most virulent and deadly problem ever. It's always good to remember that politicians never like to waste a good crisis, which is what often gets them elected.
 
Lacking any other choices, I'll stick with the medical folks rather than the political hacks, who surprisingly have developed a solid base?? Same with any other disease that comes along.

I've had a few health bumps along the way and the medical folks have eased me past them. If you think that your senator or rep can do a better job, so-be-it . Our politicians started out telling us that this was nothing to be concerned about and now, 500,000 dead folks later, some people continue to try and belittle the problem.
 
I just don't know who to listen to or trust anymore.. I am happy I will have my second vaccine in a week and 2 weeks after I am supposed to be fairly safe?? But I will still wear a mask and avoid crowds
 
The so-called experts seem to be going back and forth over whether it originated in a lab or in nature. All I know is it's a goddamned virus that should have been contained immediately upon discovery. We're well into the 21st century aren't we? Hmmmmm, yeah, it's the future when diseases will run rampant and I'm just waiting for the zombie apocalypse. :oops:
 
Epidemiologists, virologists, communicable disease specialists: Weed out the ones with political or financial interests and seriously consider the opinions of the rest.

Medical doctors: Not so much. Their training in this area is usually extremely limited but there may be a few with worthwhile input.

Head of the Department of <something that sounds relevant> at Such and Such University: Check out their credentials, but probably not particularly knowledgable.

Politicians and bureaucrats: "I have this piece of swamp land that is REALLY valuable. You should buy it. Trust me!!" :rolleyes:

The "news" (TV, print, internet): Really? You have to be kidding! :rolleyes:

Entertainers (actors, singers, athletes, media personalities): :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
 
The problem with expertise today is that there's too much of it that isn't. Instead we have an avalanche of virtue signaling, agenda pushing, narrative engineering, political pandering and worse. This makes it more difficult separate the wheat from the chaff regarding dovid information. Bottom line: Don't automatically believe what you read or hear. Use judgement and common sense in the process (e.g., has any previous flu vaccine managed to eradicate seasonal influenza?)
 
I have found Dr. Fauci to be reasonably accurate. However, the reporting of what he says has been very poor.

The standards of modern journalism are very low, perhaps to the point of being negative. I have heard people on both sides of the political divide mention how they were misquoted or misrepresented, and despite their efforts to correct the problem, the major news organizations just move on and never mention their own errors. They really don't seem to care as long as they are provoking outrage and division that keeps their ratings up.
 
For me, it's mostly local news media that gets things wrong. They have small budgets and probably don't pay their reporters very much, and their quality suffers. There are some big city news text media outlets that still do a pretty good job.

What's another word for news text media? I'm talking about media outlets that are primarily text based as apposed to video. We used to call them "print media," but many of them are primarily web-based now, so they're not printed, unless being written to the screen is still called "print."
 
Here in Minnesota, if the weather people predict snow every day during the winter, sometimes they will be right. If there are enough "expert" predictions to cover most of the possible outcomes of COVID, somebody will probably be either right or "close enough for government work".

Everybody seems to want to predict something for some reason, but only hindsight is always 20/20.

Edit: In other words...patience, grasshopper, just wait and see.

Tony
 
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In mid-January 2020 Dr Fauci said Americans had nothing to fear from the Corona virus. Shortly after he advised against wearing a face mask saying that would only give people a false sense of security. He now says that he only advised against wearing a mask because PPE was in short supply at that time BUT that's not what he said at the time. Hindsight is always nice. He's a smart doctor, but he has been too eager to be on TV since the beginning of this pandemic. He would be a better fit on the Chicago Med TV series IMO.
 

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