How far can the stock market fall?

You got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
Know when to run

You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done
 

The volatility in the markets is just getting started. It will probably be months....maybe well over a year....before anything resembling stability returns to the markets. It all depends upon what kind of long term effects this virus has on global economies....and, of course, this oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia isn't helping the oil industries. Estimates from the "experts" are all over the place, with most saying the markets my drop several percentage points more, from today's levels, and any recovery will probably not occur before well into the latter half of this year.
 
The volatility in the markets is just getting started. It will probably be months....maybe well over a year....before anything resembling stability returns to the markets. It all depends upon what kind of long term effects this virus has on global economies....and, of course, this oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia isn't helping the oil industries. Estimates from the "experts" are all over the place, with most saying the markets my drop several percentage points more, from today's levels, and any recovery will probably not occur before well into the latter half of this year.
When it comes to oil, the U.S. is lucky to have Canada as their major supplier.
Many Americans don't realize that Canada is the major supplier to the United States.
And because of the free trade agreement with Canada and the exchange rate, Americans are getting a real bargain including stability.
 
The market does not like bad news. So is there more bad news in the near future or good news? It has always made a come back but that is good or bad depending on one's time frame. If you are 30 years old this is a grand time to start some buying. If you are a senior things don't look so good. The Dow has lost around 8,000 points since the start of 2020. Your guess is as good as mine. Another piece of bad new yet to come will be the jobs report. The number of jobs lost could be 1-2 million. Fast food giants cannot open their door and who then will wait in very long lines in the drive-thru to buy a burger? What about shopping malls? Oil is at an all time low. This virus will change many nations forever.
 
Friend of mine said his broker told him we could have a major melt down by the end of year if the government doesn't find a cure for this virus.

This is a major meltdown. Stocks down by 30 percent, and the real economic impact hasn't even hit yet. When 1q earnings come out...when layoffs begin at United, Boeing, ExxonMobil, many other companies, not to mention every retailer, restaurant, cruise ship operator, etc., you will see some real consternation.

One nice thing about having been in the markets for the last 30 years, however, is that I've learned never to pay attention to what anyone's broker says.

By the way, governments don't find cures for viruses, private companies do.
 
One nice thing about having been in the markets for the last 30 years, however, is that I've learned never to pay attention to what anyone's broker says.

That's For Sure! 3 weeks ago, all the "experts" were telling people to "Stay Put". Anyone with a 401K, etc., has quickly lost a bunch by following this advice. I'm of the opinion that a brokers highest priority is their fees and commissions.
 
When it comes to oil, the U.S. is lucky to have Canada as their major supplier.
Many Americans don't realize that Canada is the major supplier to the United States.
And because of the free trade agreement with Canada and the exchange rate, Americans are getting a real bargain including stability.
Does your stock when it get's to zero still have value?
Its value at zero is...zero.

However stocks usually don't go to zero. My stocks went down by more than 50 percent in 2008-2009. They came back over time. They took off under Trump, dropped sharply in late 2018, went up by 35 percent over the last 14 months, then down by 30 percent in the last three weeks.

My bet on COVID-19 is another 10 percentage point decrease, then a fairly rapid recovery in late summer.
 
That's For Sure! 3 weeks ago, all the "experts" were telling people to "Stay Put". Anyone with a 401K, etc., has quickly lost a bunch by following this advice. I'm of the opinion that a brokers highest priority is their fees and commissions.
I believe staying put was good advice. Anyone in the market knows that you have to be willing to ride things out, and it will come back sooner or (usually) later. I certainly would not be selling at today's prices but we are positioned for the long haul.
 
This is a major meltdown. Stocks down by 30 percent, and the real economic impact hasn't even hit yet. When 1q earnings come out...when layoffs begin at United, Boeing, ExxonMobil, many other companies, not to mention every retailer, restaurant, cruise ship operator, etc., you will see some real consternation.

One nice thing about having been in the markets for the last 30 years, however, is that I've learned never to pay attention to what anyone's broker says.

By the way, governments don't find cures for viruses, private companies do.
ExxonMobil is cutting contractors this week. I have never known them to lay off direct employees but we are seeing a lot of "this has never happened before" situations.
 
Right about the vaccine. And I was talking about the US in regard to cures. Although I'm not aware of a lot of innovative pharmaceuticals created by governments anywhere.
 
Just remember, y'all: gains or losses are just on paper until you sell. Then they become real. If you don't have to sell securities to survive right now, don't.
True however insert your calendar life expectancy in and you come up bruised and battered. No matter how you view it we have lost money. "I will make it back in time" is sticking one's head in the sand. The fact is if we did not take this very big hit we would be enjoying a long run of profit. This dive ate those profits up sending us back to square one. If one had 250,000 before the dive and 210,000 when it ended you have lost money because what you can buy is less than what you could have been able to buy. If a person is a few years from death they are worse off than a 30 year old but both have suffered a reduction in their portfolios.
 
I will not be surprised if the major stock indexes show a decline of nearly 50% from their recent highs, before the markets begin to stabilize....and I suspect that this instability will be the norm well into the Summer months.
 
i think 40-50% are a do for these conditions ....but huge rally's are likely at only the hint of a peak in cases .....so if i wanted to do some bottom fishing and add i would pace myself and not try to catch a low ... say some now , some another 5% drop , some another 5% drop , etc
timing a bottom is in possible but if you have enough to add the ride back should be quite nice eventually.

markets spend 80% of all their time somewhere between the last low and last high so bench marking to a peak is very foolish . it is like trying to sell a stock at the exact high .

in the end we always have a reversion to the mean and 9% or so is the norm long term
 
When it comes to oil, the U.S. is lucky to have Canada as their major supplier.
Many Americans don't realize that Canada is the major supplier to the United States.
And because of the free trade agreement with Canada and the exchange rate, Americans are getting a real bargain including stability.
Actually, the U.S. produces more oil than Canada and is very close to being self sufficient. But, for now, Canada is our main importer for the oil that is needed in addition to our own. That’s well known. Geo-politics has a lot to do with the reasoning. The U.S. is the largest oil producing country in the world and Canada, I believe, is either 4th or 5th.
 
Well it depends. How much can you sell it for? That's the value of anything you own.
I think perhaps you don’t understand how the market works. Take a large cap stock and as it declines, it will be removed from the large cap sector to the mid-cap sector. If it continues to decline, it was again be removed from the mid-cap sector to the small-cap sector. If it still declines, it could be de-listed and end up being traded on the OTC or as some call it, the pink sheet.

What the company’s value is when their assets, including cash and outstanding debts are tallied and then their liabilities, including their accounts payable is deducted to get a net value is different from what the stock is worth.

A company can have a billion dollars in assets, but if it isn’t bringing in any money with what they produce or products or services they supply, the stock isn’t worth much, if anything at all to investors.
 


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