How to know when it's time to re-open the Nation?

[Ronni]

I read a fascinating article in the New York Times this morning. The burning question on everyone's mind seems to be when things can go back to normal. The Article suggest that the better question to ask is HOW we will know when it's time to re-open the country?

The author posited 4 criteria that should be dermining factors in answering the questions of HOW TO KNOW. Some cities or states will recover sooner than others. It’s helpful to have criteria by which cities or states could determine they’re ready. A recent report by Scott Gottlieb, Caitlin Rivers, Mark B. McClellan, Lauren Silvis and Crystal Watson staked out some goal posts.

1. Hospitals in the state must be able to safely treat all patients requiring hospitalization, without resorting to crisis standards of care.

2. A state needs to be able to at least test everyone who has symptoms.

3. The state is able to conduct monitoring of confirmed cases and contacts.

4. There must be a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days.

That last one #4 I find particularly interesting.
Because it can take up to two weeks for symptoms to emerge, any infections that have already happened can take that long to appear. If the number of cases in an area is dropping steadily for that much time, however, public health officials can be reasonably comfortable that suppression has been achieved, defined by every infected person infecting fewer than one other. In suppression, cases will dwindle at an exponential fashion, just as they rose. It’s not possible to set a benchmark number for every state because the number of infections that will be manageable in any area depends on the local population and the public health system’s ability to handle sporadic cases.

In the case of Tennessee where I live, we currently have 4862 cases, 92 deaths, 505 hospitalizations, 921 recovered, 59,849 tests. As of yesterday, the # of confirmed cases is still up trending, not dropping, suggesting that now is NOT a good time to end our particular quarantine. But right now, our Governor who issued a Stay At Home Order through April 14th, and school closures through April 24th, shows no signs of extending that order. In his last press conference yesterday, when asked if he intended to extend these orders, he stated: "What we’re most interested in is making the right decision at the right time,” and would not comment any further.

I don't think this is the time to reopen everything. I don't think it's wise to lift the stay at home order while the graph of cases is still up trending. I am not confident about this decision at all.

 

[WhatInThe]

Setting aside basic criteria there will now be a bunch of potential legal issues in that many businesses, organizations etc will be worried about just one person getting sick and suing them saying they should've waited to open especially if the competition, peers or location did not fully endorse back to normal. If the individual goes back to business as usual back in public they should accept the chance they might get sick with this or anything else. Beyond a certain point the individual at risk or scared should be the ones protecting themselves.

 

[Aunt Bea]

I think that if those four criteria are met they should be able to reopen things gradually.

IMO big businesses should monitor employee's temperature at the entrance to the workplace each day and send people with a temperature home or have them tested.

I also think that those people that can work from home should continue to do so.

We should continue to restrict non-essential gatherings like religious services, sports, entertainment, etc...

I think that reducing the capacity of a business or school classroom to help with social distancing should be done. In this area, the fire department sets the seating/occupancy capacity and perhaps those numbers could be reduced by 25-50% in an effort to help manage the risk.

I also think that geezers like most of us here and any other folks that don't have to go out should continue to limit exposure until a vaccine is developed.

I am concerned that if we go too fast or become complacent we could see a resurgence of the disease and a double-dip recession for the economy.

It's definitely a tough call.

 

[Don M.]

Until a vaccine is found, and widely implemented, I see the potential for a resurgence of this disease, if everyone tries to return to a more normal routine, too quickly. I fully expect this social distancing, and substantial interruption to our "normal" to continue through the remainder of this year, and perhaps well into next year.

We're taking it seriously, and expect to limit our exposure to others for the foreseeable future. The hardest part, for us, will be the limited time spent with the kids....and, of course, the visits to the casinos....IF they reopen.