Is High Inflation Back?

JonDouglas

JonDouglas

Senior Member
Location
New England
According to the folks at the Mises Institute, it is. From their article entitled The Worst-Kept Secret in America: High Inflation Is Back:

To most people, “inflation” signifies widespread rising prices. Economists have long argued, as a matter of technical accuracy, that “inflation” denotes an increasing money supply. Frankly, though, most people don’t care what happens to the supply of money, but they care a lot about the prices they pay, so I’ll focus primarily on the numerous rapidly rising prices Americans are paying today.​
​
Following are several examples of the current inflation: Corn, soybeans, and wheat have been trading at multi-year highs, with corn having risen from around $3.80 per bushel in January 2020 to approximately $6.75 now. Chicken wings are at all-time record highs. It is getting more expensive to eat.​
​
Copper prices have risen to an all-time high. Steel, too, recently traded at prices 35% above the previous all-time set in 2008. Perhaps most famously, the price of lumber has nearly quadrupled since the beginning of 2020 and has nearly doubled just since January. Naturally, with raw materials prices soaring, prices of manufactured goods are jumping, too. That is especially noticeable in the housing market, where the median price of existing homes rose to $329,100 in March—a whopping 17.2% increase from a year earlier.​
​
The cost of driving is soaring, too. According to J.D. Power, cited in The Wall Street Journal, the average used car price has risen 16.7% and new car prices have risen 9.6% since January.​
​
- - - - - [snip] - - - -​
​
Hang on tight, folks. We could be in for a rough ride in the months ahead.​

More at Source.​

This is NOT something we need right after the covid-crap the country stepped in.
 

"This is NOT something we need right after the covid-crap the country stepped in." You've got that right. Hopefully people can get back to work and find clever ways to lower their expenses. I know people who say they don't have enough money to last the month but they eat out a lot and pay high cable bills. Cutting back on those two things alone would result in significant savings. Cutting back on eating meat is another budget saver. It's about lowering costs on the things people have control over because with some things they will not have control.
 
The lockdown was, IMO, a huge mistake that created unnecessary economic, social, financial and mental hardship. Below are some thoughts from the Cincinnati Inquirer on the subject

When the lockdowns began in March 2020, we were all acutely aware of the serious medical threat that the COVID-19 pandemic posed. Some warned of the equally painful economic and social impact of overly aggressive response measures. We now know the pandemic allowed some elected officials to grab, for themselves, unthinkable power. However, we also now know the devastating effects of that response.​
​
Teen depression skyrocketed, drug overdoses climbed sharply, schools were closed (leading to more screen time for kids with very little learning), small businesses were devastated (especially Black and Hispanic-owned businesses), some of which may never recover or rebuild.​
​
In 2020, we took a high-powered sports car – the American economy – and shut down the engine as we were heading into a 90-degree turn at full speed. Not surprisingly, it ran off the track and took American workers with it. Unfortunately, the lessons about the need for good public policy have not been learned.​
 
Keesha said:
I disagree. Lockdowns proved to isolate the virus and greatly reduce deaths and keep people out of hospital. This province has been in lockdown for a month and has reduced the number of infections by about 80%
Click to expand...
According to the stats I've seen, some 80% or more of the people were never going to have much of a problem and, thus, didn't need to be locked down. The best approach, IMO, would have been to quarantine the sick and those at risk, not the healthy majority. Oh, and by the way, how did the lockdown work out for states that did it versus those that didn't? Also, what about the news that covid exposure increased immune antibodies? Finally, many reports fail to take into account how the CDC kept changing the testing and counting rules.
 
Last edited:
There is a potential Upside to the increasing inflation....Seniors may see an increase in their SS COLA, in 2022....perhaps as much as 3%. By this time, next year, that may be enough to buy a loaf of bread.

It's time to end these stimulus and unemployment payments, and encourage the jobless to take advantage of the Help Wanted signs that are everywhere.
 
JonDouglas said:
According to the stats I've seen, some 80% or more of the people were never going to have much of a problem and, thus, didn't need to be locked down. The best approach, IMO, would have been to quarantine the sick and those at risk, not the healthy majority.
Click to expand...
There very well could be 90% of people here who don’t need to isolate but even healthy people who might not ever get this can be carriers . If they are carriers then they can unknowingly affect others. Those others might not know they are infected until they have severe symptoms so they may have infected 20 people.

This is why isolating ‘everyone’ works.
This method only works if everyone has the same concern for others as they do for themselves.
 
JonDouglas said:
According to the folks at the Mises Institute, it is. From their article entitled The Worst-Kept Secret in America: High Inflation Is Back:

To most people, “inflation” signifies widespread rising prices. Economists have long argued, as a matter of technical accuracy, that “inflation” denotes an increasing money supply. Frankly, though, most people don’t care what happens to the supply of money, but they care a lot about the prices they pay, so I’ll focus primarily on the numerous rapidly rising prices Americans are paying today.​
​
Following are several examples of the current inflation: Corn, soybeans, and wheat have been trading at multi-year highs, with corn having risen from around $3.80 per bushel in January 2020 to approximately $6.75 now. Chicken wings are at all-time record highs. It is getting more expensive to eat.​
​
Copper prices have risen to an all-time high. Steel, too, recently traded at prices 35% above the previous all-time set in 2008. Perhaps most famously, the price of lumber has nearly quadrupled since the beginning of 2020 and has nearly doubled just since January. Naturally, with raw materials prices soaring, prices of manufactured goods are jumping, too. That is especially noticeable in the housing market, where the median price of existing homes rose to $329,100 in March—a whopping 17.2% increase from a year earlier.​
​
The cost of driving is soaring, too. According to J.D. Power, cited in The Wall Street Journal, the average used car price has risen 16.7% and new car prices have risen 9.6% since January.​
​
- - - - - [snip] - - - -​
​
Hang on tight, folks. We could be in for a rough ride in the months ahead.​

More at Source.​

This is NOT something we need right after the covid-crap the country stepped in.
Click to expand...
I knew it was coming.
 
Keesha said:
There very well could be 90% of people here who don’t need to isolate but even healthy people who might not ever get this can be carriers . If they are carriers then they can unknowingly affect others. Those others might not know they are infected until they have severe symptoms so they may have infected 20 people.

This is why isolated ‘everyone’ works.
This method only works if everyone has the same concern for others as they do for themselves.
Click to expand...
Except for the problem that it didn't work.
 
JonDouglas said:
Except for the problem that it didn't work.
Click to expand...
It did here! A month ago there were only a few cases here but it quickly went to 75 new cases in one day so they quickly shut the borders down. If you did travel here from other provinces you had to quarantine for 2 full weeks which we did since we just moved here. They had a shut down where people could only shop for essentials. Yesterday there were 20 new cases. The cases went down every single day by using the methods they have been using.
 
How To Know When Inflation Is Here To Stay: That's the title of the following WSJ article, with snippet below.

Inflation is here already, and in the long run there is a lot of upward pressure on prices. But between now and then lies a big question for investors and the economy: Is the Federal Reserve right to think that the price rises we’re seeing now are temporary and will abate by next year?​
​
Some at the Fed are already having vague doubts, starting to talk about when to discuss removing some of their extraordinary stimulus even as they continue to push the idea that inflation is likely to fall back of its own accord.​
​
The argument that inflation is temporary is simple. Consumer demand has been boosted massively by stimulus and the reopening release of pent-up demand. Supply is unable to keep up thanks to inventories and capabilities run down when demand collapsed during lockdown, workers unwilling to return to work and the overhang of Covid-19 restrictions on production. As a result, there are some extraordinary price ramps in narrow areas, such as used cars, that are pushing up headline numbers. The resulting price rises will abate once spare cash is spent and business is back to normal.​
​
More at Source: WSJ​

It may be helpful to remember that, to be practical, there are two economies - main street and wall street - and that the WSJ can have more of a wall street view. Such would seem to be the case here when the article makes the statement, "Consumers came out of lockdown flush with cash", which may not be the case for senior retirees.
 
Don M. said:
There is a potential Upside to the increasing inflation....Seniors may see an increase in their SS COLA, in 2022....perhaps as much as 3%. By this time, next year, that may be enough to buy a loaf of bread.

It's time to end these stimulus and unemployment payments, and encourage the jobless to take advantage of the Help Wanted signs that are everywhere.
Click to expand...
Don't worry, if it follows past trends, the price of part B will increase too and you'll have a net gain of 3-4 dollars a month. ;)
 
Keesha said:
I disagree. Lockdowns proved to isolate the virus and greatly reduce deaths and keep people out of hospital. This province has been in lockdown for a month and has reduced the number of infections by about 80%
Click to expand...
For a month you say, you lucky devil! My province has been locked down since November, 2020; that makes it 7 months and the "great" leaders we have here just keep extending the dates. Everyone else is talking about opening up plans but not us. The "great" leaders are still telling us to stay home and do everything "virtually." They must own stocks in those internet companies? All festivals have been cancelled. Walking trials in parks have been closed. Feels like a concentration camp life here!
 
Packerjohn said:
For a month you say, you lucky devil! My province has been locked down since November, 2020; that makes it 7 months and the "great" leaders we have here just keep extending the dates. Everyone else is talking about opening up plans but not us. The "great" leaders are still telling us to stay home and do everything "virtually." They must own stocks in those internet companies? All festivals have been cancelled. Walking trials in parks have been closed. Feels like a concentration camp life here!
Click to expand...
Well I ‘was’ in a province like that but we moved last month just before they closed the borders. My husband worked in a high risk area so we made a plan to retire early and don’t regret it any. Except maybe missing my bath. 😅

I’m really sorry you are feeling so restricted. It’s a serious illness no doubt and I respect the efforts taken to curb / control this .
 
Most of what we are seeing in price increases are temporary supply chain shortages ….

when you consider we had near zero inflation for a while this is really not much ….

longer term deflation may be the bigger problem
 
mathjak107 said:
Most of what we are seeing in price increases are temporary supply chain shortages ….
Click to expand...

So... when I can have all the 7/16th OSB I want as long as I pay $90 a sheet instead of the $8.75 I payed last year, that is a temporary supply chain issue?
I think not. What you are seeing is GREED, plain and simple. Anyone with even a working brain stem knows that if you create an artificial shortage, you can and will increase the price.
Also, isn't it strange that during this whole pandemic thing, every sawmill around these parts has been going balls to the walls. Kind of makes you wonder where all this lumber they produced ended up.
 
Same Price for Less. As a means of "masking" inflation, manufacturers and stores are starting to produce/sell consumer items in smaller quantities and packages...for the "previous" prices. Items that used to sell by a "pound" are now selling at the previous price....but now, for 12 ounces. The end result is that consumers will see their final costs rising by 20%, or more.

yahoo.com/news/one-way-companies-concealing-higher-104326057.html
 
Don M. said:
Same Price for Less. As a means of "masking" inflation, manufacturers and stores are starting to produce/sell consumer items in smaller quantities and packages...for the "previous" prices. Items that used to sell by a "pound" are now selling at the previous price....but now, for 12 ounces. The end result is that consumers will see their final costs rising by 20%, or more.

yahoo.com/news/one-way-companies-concealing-higher-104326057.html
Click to expand...
That is accounted for in the CPI changes
 
We just had a new water pump put in a couple of weeks ago...great company who we've used for years. They pulled out the paperwork and noted that this pump had lasted over 19 years...great mileage of course. The well had cost us $1350. in 2001...this new pump cost us $2650. Don't know about you, but I call that "inflation". Look at the prices of homes and cars and anything you get done on your house or replace when needed if you want to see inflation. Its all around us and is here to stay.
 
mathjak107 said:
If we have inflation then bond funds will do bad …if we have deflation , long term treasuries or funds like Tlt or vglt are the place to be
Click to expand...
Wonder if bond funds are even worth it period. Short term ones, maybe...and that's a big maybe.
 


Back
Top