Is the stock market slide over?

oldmontana

Member
Location
Montana
I say NO...not when the covid-19 is going to hang on for who knows how long, but experts say at lest 6 months.

The more I read almost every industry is effected. A few are doing good but most are going to see their earnings go down.

What do you think?
 

Aunt Bea

SF VIP
Location
Near Mount Pilot
I think that we will see another dip in the markets when the reality hits that all of the current stimulus money in circulation has had little or no impact on getting business up and running.

IMO the money spent so far has been for life support of individuals and businesses but will have little impact on earnings or profits needed to fuel growth.

I also believe that many working folks have been or will be selling 401K assets and will also end up doing a pause on future 401K contributions until they get their personal finances in order.

We'll see!
 

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OneEyedDiva

Well-known Member
Location
Nrw Jersey
Well apparently not. Today "the Dow" closed down over 500 points, NASDAQ down 139 points with other indices down as well. I think we're going to see this going on for quite awhile.
 

Don M.

Well-known Member
Location
central Missouri
I'm one of those who suspects that there will be another downward slide....as bad, or worse than the February crash. With so much unemployment, so many uncertainties about this virus, and a good chance for another wave of infections, and so many businesses flirting with major financial troubles, I am not very enthused about market performance in the next few months. About the Only thing I can think of that might break this cycle is an announcement of an effective vaccine, and the ability to produce millions of doses quickly.
 

fmdog44

Well-known Member
Location
Houston, Texas
Tech will do OK and sold companies with good balance sheets is where I am .We may see some rough roads ahead for a lot of companies large and small.
 

mathjak107

Senior Member
don't know , don't care .... i don't try to rule out these things by counting only on prosperity .... my portfolio yins and yangs with gold and long term treasuries flying fighter cover for the equities ...i can do okay no matter what ...took me a long time to realize no one can predict this stuff and outcomes , so bet on them all .

we only spend 20% of all our investing time at the tops of bull markets where 100% equities wins ... the other 80% is spent somewhere between the last LOW and the last high
 

Em in Ohio

Senior Member
Location
OH HI OH
don't know , don't care .... i don't try to rule out these things by counting only on prosperity .... my portfolio yins and yangs with gold and long term treasuries flying fighter cover for the equities ...i can do okay no matter what ...took me a long time to realize no one can predict this stuff and outcomes , so bet on them all .

we only spend 20% of all our investing time at the tops of bull markets where 100% equities wins ... the other 80% is spent somewhere between the last LOW and the last high
Sadly, I still don't understand what this means. Is gold a better (as in safer) investment now and in the next year, in your opinion?
 

mathjak107

Senior Member
Sadly, I still don't understand what this means. Is gold a better (as in safer) investment now and in the next year, in your opinion?
nooooooooooooooo .. a portfolio that uses a combination of assets is safer than any one of the assets on its own .

taken by themselves , equities , gold and long term treasuries are the most volatile assets .

but combined in a portfolio the yin and yang effect turns the volatility in to something way less . somethings go up , some things go down so they temper each other .

but the assets have to be very specific that are matched .

only four tend to work together well

broad based equity funds like the s&p 500 or total market

gold like gld or iau

long term treasuries like tlt

short term treasuries like shy , bil shv .

each one responds very strongly to the 4 major outcomes we can have .

recession

depression

prosperity

high inflation .


like clock work any recession or depression involving a slow down and falling rates will have long term treasuries soar , short term treasuries do well too as they can rebalance and buy assets on the cheap .

stocks and maybe bonds will do well in prosperity if inflation is low .

a weak dollar or high inflaton from the printing press will have gold do well .

so there is never a time you are exposed to devastation from an economic event .
 
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Em in Ohio

Senior Member
Location
OH HI OH
THANKS! This is a good start to clarification and much appreciated. Now, I need to figure out my IRA and how I can improve my oh-so-tiny value. All I know for sure is that it lost $500 as of the last report. For me, on my minimal poverty-level existence, that's almost a month's worth of financial survival.
 

mathjak107

Senior Member
THANKS! This is a good start to clarification and much appreciated. Now, I need to figure out my IRA and how I can improve my oh-so-tiny value. All I know for sure is that it lost $500 as of the last report. For me, on my minimal poverty-level existence, that's almost a month's worth of financial survival.
be careful betting on only prosperity in my opinion . a good all weather portfolio can be a great choice in times like this since you profit with something no matter what..

the bigger the portfolio the more severe the damage can be betting on just one outcome ...
 

Don M.

Well-known Member
Location
central Missouri
Here's an article I read this morning, from Bloomberg. It pretty well sums up what I'm feeling about the markets. I re-balanced my holdings in late Feb., after losing about 8% in a couple of days, and I'm going to stay diversified and rather conservative for the foreseeable future. I strongly suspect that the previous market lows will be "tested" again in coming weeks.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-heavyweights-sounding-alarm-223330724.html
 

mathjak107

Senior Member
i have no idea what is coming next ... i position for it all so to speak ...

today markets are down 400.00,

LONG TREASURY BOND ETF TLT IS UP 1.38% ,

GLD GOLD ETF UP 1% ,

SHORT TERM TREASURY ETF UP .02
 

Em in Ohio

Senior Member
Location
OH HI OH
Here's an article I read this morning, from Bloomberg. It pretty well sums up what I'm feeling about the markets. I re-balanced my holdings in late Feb., after losing about 8% in a couple of days, and I'm going to stay diversified and rather conservative for the foreseeable future. I strongly suspect that the previous market lows will be "tested" again in coming weeks.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-heavyweights-sounding-alarm-223330724.html
From this link: "Other marquee investors also have taken more defensive stances recently. Tudor Jones, who runs Tudor Investment Corp., told clients in early May he was investing in gold and had even put a small percentage of his firm’s assets in Bitcoin as he looked for havens. Meanwhile, Carl Icahn said in late April that he wasn’t buying stocks. Instead, he was hoarding cash and shorting commercial real estate. " My question is: What does is mean, "hoarding cash?" Is this a stock thing, a bank account, a mattress filling? Sorry, but I am obviously quite uninformed about these things.
 

mathjak107

Senior Member
From this link: "Other marquee investors also have taken more defensive stances recently. Tudor Jones, who runs Tudor Investment Corp., told clients in early May he was investing in gold and had even put a small percentage of his firm’s assets in Bitcoin as he looked for havens. Meanwhile, Carl Icahn said in late April that he wasn’t buying stocks. Instead, he was hoarding cash and shorting commercial real estate. " My question is: What does is mean, "hoarding cash?" Is this a stock thing, a bank account, a mattress filling? Sorry, but I am obviously quite uninformed about these things.
be careful following these hedge fund guys . tudor had to close a few funds they guessed wrong so much ..... they basically liquidated the funds at a loss and gave investors back what was left of their money ...
 

Em in Ohio

Senior Member
Location
OH HI OH
be careful following these hedge fund guys . tudor had to close a few funds they guessed wrong so much ..... they basically liquidated the funds at a loss and gave investors back what was left of their money ...
??? I have no idea what a hedge fund is, so I'll ask again... Carl Icahn said in late April that he wasn’t buying stocks. Instead, he was hoarding cash and shorting commercial real estate. " My question is: What does is mean, "hoarding cash?" Is this a stock thing, a bank account, a mattress filling? Sorry, but I am obviously quite uninformed about these things.

Are you saying that hoarding cash has to do with hedge funds? I'm sorry to be so dumb - but I have tried in the past to grasp stock market knowledge - and failed, totally confused and frustrated.
 

mathjak107

Senior Member
??? I have no idea what a hedge fund is, so I'll ask again... Carl Icahn said in late April that he wasn’t buying stocks. Instead, he was hoarding cash and shorting commercial real estate. " My question is: What does is mean, "hoarding cash?" Is this a stock thing, a bank account, a mattress filling? Sorry, but I am obviously quite uninformed about these things.

Are you saying that hoarding cash has to do with hedge funds? I'm sorry to be so dumb - but I have tried in the past to grasp stock market knowledge - and failed, totally confused and frustrated.
hoarding cash could mean just holding CASH INSTRUMENTS . could be bank , or could be t-bills , etc ..... usually t-bills are the vehicle of choice when you have millions to store . it is just sitting on your money waiting to deploy it .
 

Em in Ohio

Senior Member
Location
OH HI OH
hoarding cash could mean just holding CASH INSTRUMENTS . could be bank , or could be t-bills , etc ..... usually t-bills are the vehicle of choice when you have millions to store . it is just sitting on your money waiting to deploy it .
Okay - getting warmer... I will Google "cash instruments." At least, now I know that the quote didn't mean cash in the mattress!
 

Em in Ohio

Senior Member
Location
OH HI OH
cash instruments are things we put our cash in . cd's , bank accounts , money markets , t-bills , the mattress , etc .
This is what I checked and found:

Cash instruments include savings and checking accounts, certificates of deposit and money market accounts. These safe and liquid investments earn modest returns on investment. They also provide financial flexibility because you can use them for emergencies, living expenses and buying other assets at attractive prices. Types of Investment Instruments | Finance - Zacks

Where can I park excess cash?
  • Money market account. If you want a safe place to park extra cash that offers a higher yield than a traditional checking or savings account, consider a money market account. ...​
  • High-yield savings account. ...​
  • Online savings account. ...​
  • Certificate of deposit (CD) ...​
  • Checking account. ...​
  • Treasury bills. ...​
  • Short-term bonds. ...​
  • Riskier options.​
 

fmdog44

Well-known Member
Location
Houston, Texas
THANKS! This is a good start to clarification and much appreciated. Now, I need to figure out my IRA and how I can improve my oh-so-tiny value. All I know for sure is that it lost $500 as of the last report. For me, on my minimal poverty-level existence, that's almost a month's worth of financial survival.
Gold is not an investment rather, solid protection when the financial world falters. Everyone therefore should own a small portion of gold. Some say 20% but I think that is too high. Do your research before you write the check.
 

Red Cinders

Member
The market doesn't seem to make a lot of sense right now. It's very fickle but is fascinating to watch.

While I do think there will be another big dip over the next few months, the fact that there is so much cash on the sidelines looking for some type of return will keep the market from going too low. Throw in future Fed action and foreign investors looking for a safer haven, and the market won't crash and burn.

There are a few reasons why I think there will be another dip. One is that some will be shocked when they see actual reports of no to low earnings. Knowing it's going to happen is one thing, but seeing it may be sobering. Another reason is because of companies cutting buybacks. Finally, many companies will slide into bankruptcy with some never re-emerging. Whether this will have a cascading effect remains to be seen.

Admittedly, I know nothing, and everything the market does is now a surprise. I think we are living in a fake economy with too low interest rates allowing/creating havoc, but since that is not expected to change for a very long time, we're stuck with an over-valued stock market. Until it's not.
 

mathjak107

Senior Member
Gold is not an investment rather, solid protection when the financial world falters. Everyone therefore should own a small portion of gold. Some say 20% but I think that is too high. Do your research before you write the check.
That is what is said about gold but facts show other wise .

gold has now beaten equities the year to date , over the one year , the 3 year . Gold has now beaten equities the Last 15 years and 20 year periods ...

old data going back to before gold was main stream and could be bought by anyone like a stock distorted golds use as an asset .....it was prior the asset choice for the doom and bloomers and gold bugs who liked shiny objects .

today one etf Gld holds 40 billion in gold in just one fund as golds popularity is far different the last 20 years .

the other power in gold is when it is rebalanced in a portfolio to buy other assets .... in times like now gold blew away a total bond fund and equities .....so compared to selling some of a total bond fund to rebalance and buy equities, gold buys a whole lot more equities being it is up 30% the last year.

people like to look at equities only in a bull at the top ...yet we spend 80% of our time somewhere between the last low and last high .....
 

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