Is the stock market trying to play nice today?

Pecos

Pecos

Well-known Member
Location
Washington State
I see that the stock market has crawled up a little bit today. This rollercoaster ride has been a bit rough lately. I can just imagine money sloshing back and forth between the bond side of our balanced funds and the stock side.
 

The Stock Market has been a rollercoaster all of this past year. I usually watch CNBC every morning at breakfast, and check in with the financials on the Internet a couple of times during the day. A dozen "experts" offer a dozen different reasons for the ups and downs, but to me, it seems that the common denominator is the latest "Tweet". I wish Twitter would close a certain unnamed individuals account....we would All be better off.
 
I’ve drastically reduced my exposure to the equities market. The market is now manipulated so much by baseless twitter, FB, fake news, and clueless media comments. Tired of them manipulating my money.
 

It feels like a bad year but so far it has been pretty good.

The Dow opened at 23,346.24 on 01/02/19 and closed yesterday at 26,201.04.

Those gains could be erased today but I have faith in the growth of the markets over time.

“The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”- Benjamin Graham

“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.”- Shelby Cullom Davis

“A 10% decline in the market is fairly common—it happens about once a year. Investors who realize this are less likely to sell in a panic, and more likely to remain invested, benefitting from the wealth-building power of stocks.”- Christopher Davis
 
Aunt Bea said:
It feels like a bad year but so far it has been pretty good.

The Dow opened at 23,346.24 on 01/02/19 and closed yesterday at 26,201.04.

Those gains could be erased today but I have faith in the growth of the markets over time.

“The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”- Benjamin Graham

“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.”- Shelby Cullom Davis

“A 10% decline in the market is fairly common—it happens about once a year. Investors who realize this are less likely to sell in a panic, and more likely to remain invested, benefitting from the wealth-building power of stocks.”- Christopher Davis
Click to expand...

remember the dow numbers and s&p numbers do not include dividends in them so just looking at the dow being x and now it is y does not calculate in the dividends .
 
Up & downs- everyone knows they happen so why worry if you're in it for the long haul? Granted, the "long haul" is shorter for seniors but I mostly ignore fluctuations like I ignore waves in the ocean. I have self guided my investments and I am sure a pro may have done better but they may have done worse. I let Merrill Lynch guide an IRA I had and they cost me money. I would have been better off not agreeing to one big move they made that lost money the day it kicked in. I never set out to earn as much as possible rather, to build my money so I am comfortable in my retirement.
This week one day down 500+ then up 235 +/_ today up 355 & counting ?????
 
Last edited:
I have an unfortunate streak of buying a stock after positive research, only to see it go down, promptly. But they have large dividends. I can tell you what NOT to buy, not what to buy.
 
As long as you're in it for the long haul, "enjoy" the ride. As you probably know by now, the Dow recently passed 28,000 for the first time. Crash warnings have been issued by various analysts for a couple of years now and I don't doubt it will happen. But the market has always rebounded after crashes and those who didn't jump ship (ie: selling at a low) benefitted from those rebounds.
 
Times I've made money in the market on stock purchases have been when the market was really down. Hey, its easy, right, just buy low and sell high...lol!
 
This bull market will be 11 years old on 3/9/2020. I wish the bear market would come and get it over with so I can buy my list of stocks on sale. This waiting is getting on my nerves, knowing that if I buy now it will soon drop 30-50% when the bear shows up.
 
PVC said:
This bull market will be 11 years old on 3/9/2020. I wish the bear market would come and get it over with so I can buy my list of stocks on sale. This waiting is getting on my nerves, knowing that if I buy now it will soon drop 30-50% when the bear shows up.
Click to expand...
Yep, that's when you can make the moola!
 
PVC I take advantage buying opportunities after year end capital gains are paid. They cause my mutual funds to dip in price (temporarily, of course). Funds may be anywhere from $2 and change to almost $4 lower after those gains are paid out. I've learned not to "spend" all my cash though, so like you, I'll be taking advantage of bear market NAVs.
 
PVC said:
This bull market will be 11 years old on 3/9/2020. I wish the bear market would come and get it over with so I can buy my list of stocks on sale. This waiting is getting on my nerves, knowing that if I buy now it will soon drop 30-50% when the bear shows up.
Click to expand...
PVC I wait until the year end capital gains are paid out to buy some of my shares. A couple of my funds pay healthy CGs and can drop the NAVs by between $2 and change and almost $4 a share. I've learned not to spend all my cash though, so like you, I'll have enough to buy more shares at bear market prices. However, even with the big crash of 2008, none of my funds lost even 30% of their value. In fact I took a major distribution from one at a profit. But of course, as they say, pass performance is no guarantee of future results.
 
OneEyedDiva said:
PVC I take advantage buying opportunities after year end capital gains are paid. They cause my mutual funds to dip in price (temporarily, of course). Funds may be anywhere from $2 and change to almost $4 lower after those gains are paid out. I've learned not to "spend" all my cash though, so like you, I'll be taking advantage of bear market NAVs.
Click to expand...
I don't have a lot of disposable income, so I can't make big bets on stocks. Right now I only have like $5500 available for a bear market shopping spree, and I have a mile long list of stocks and ETFs I'd like to buy. :ROFLMAO: I don't like mutual funds, buy ETFs instead. And I'm trying very hard not to spend the measly cash I have when my favorite stocks go down a few $$.

I just buy stocks for the fun of it, wish I had another 20 years to have some fun but who knows. I'm 77 and didn't start investing until I was 52, no one in my family or friends were into stocks, so I was pretty ignorant until then.
 
Last edited:
OneEyedDiva said:
PVC I take advantage buying opportunities after year end capital gains are paid. They cause my mutual funds to dip in price (temporarily, of course). Funds may be anywhere from $2 and change to almost $4 lower after those gains are paid out. I've learned not to "spend" all my cash though, so like you, I'll be taking advantage of bear market NAVs.
Click to expand...
if it is not in a taxable account it is irrelevant . either way if you reinvest it's a wash . if it is a taxable account then yes , wait . no sense buying a tax liability needlessly .
 
mathjak107 said:
Large dividends only mean the share price gets reduced even more by the payout needing more appreciation to overcome the payout ...
Click to expand...
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Companies have to do something with their profits and if they pay dividends. They can buy their own stock, spend it on improvements, buy another company, pay dividends, etc.

I see nothing wrong with paying dividends ... and yes if a stock pays out one dollar in a dividend their stock price most likely will go down one dollar the day its x-dividend date but the price of good utility stocks their stock price over a year goes up.
 
oldmontana said:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Companies have to do something with their profits and if they pay dividends. They can buy their own stock, spend it on improvements, buy another company, pay dividends, etc.

I see nothing wrong with paying dividends ... and yes if a stock pays out one dollar in a dividend their stock price most likely will go down one dollar the day its x-dividend date but the price of good utility stocks their stock price over a year goes up.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately profits have zero to do with paying out dividends ...dividends are voted on by the board and paid out whether the company lost money or not ....we have seen the bluest of blue chips pay out their dividends right up to ending in the financial graveyard ..... so while there is nothing wrong with giving you what amounts to a return of capital , dividends no longer represent the health of a company .

in theory it used to mean that a company would flaunt its ability to just hand back money because they were doing so well ...investors took that as a vote of confidence...but that is a thing of the past and paying a dividend has nothing to do with a companies health ....it is simply the fact that they have to pay it out whether they made a profit or not or risk investors crushing the stock price
 
mathjak107 said:
Unfortunately profits have zero to do with paying out dividends ...dividends are voted on by the board and paid out whether the company lost money or not ....we have seen the bluest of blue chips pay out their dividends right up to ending in the financial graveyard ..... so while there is nothing wrong with giving you what amounts to a return of capital , dividends no longer represent the health of a company .

in theory it used to mean that a company would flaunt its ability to just hand back money because they were doing so well ...investors took that as a vote of confidence...but that is a thing of the past and paying a dividend has nothing to do with a companies health ....it is simply the fact that they have to pay it out whether they made a profit or not or risk investors crushing the stock price
Click to expand...
\

".it is simply the fact that they have to pay it out whether they made a profit or not or risk investors crushing the stock price"

No, its not a fact. All the companies we own do not pay a dividend unless they have money to do so.

Most companies that can not cover their dividend with cash on hand will reduce their dividend...that is SOP>
 
oldmontana said:
\

".it is simply the fact that they have to pay it out whether they made a profit or not or risk investors crushing the stock price"

No, its not a fact. All the companies we own do not pay a dividend unless they have money to do so.

Most companies that can not cover their dividend with cash on hand will reduce their dividend...that is SOP>
Click to expand...
not all companies make money every year or even for years .

the list of blue chips who pay or paid dividends even when losing money is limitless ..boards never do not pay dividends ever , until the day comes they just about have the nails in the coffin.

Want some names of companies that lost money year after year, yet kept those dividends coming ?

Gm ,Kodak ,Polaroid,Chrysler ,ibm ,Westinghouse , jc penny , radio shack ,Barnes and noble .,Washington mutual,bank of America, RITE AID ,BP OIL ,AIG. FORD , ETC ..I CAN GO ON AND ON .

The dividend stock world is littered with its fair share of recent disasters. The factors that led to the downturn of once mighty dividend payers vary greatly. Some companies simply failed to change with the times, while others have incompetent management to blame. Still others took on massive risks that eventually came back to bite them. Most of these companies exhibited at least one of the following signs before their massive dividend cuts or suspensions , a sharply falling share price, or a lack of dividend raises over a long period of time. By that time it was to late .

Never think dividends being paid have a thing to do with the company being profitable or not .... a rising dividend and rising share price are what determines a company likely doing well , not just paying a dividend out. By the time a dividend is cut the game is usually over for them like many on the list above
 
Last edited:
one thing i want to add is

you keep seeing references to just invest in the so called " dividend aristocrats "

just invest in this group and call it a day is the advice the mis-informed like to spew ..

however what constitutes this group changes all the time so get ready for lots of selling trying to keep up as they get bumped and replaced AFTER THE FACT THEY DID NOT LIVE UP TO EXPECTATIONS . you could be behind the curve here very easily .

these dividend aristocrats are not somehow immune to all the things that effect company's and stocks . Just like other companies, their outcomes change.

in 2009 there were 52 stocks that met the group’s strict criteria.

As of 2012, there were 51.

But of those 51, 13 were different than the original set. So over the course of just 3 years, there was a 27% change in the group’s composition.

in fact going back to 1989's list :

Of those 26, seven are still on the list today, ten were removed because they either cut or froze their dividend, four were removed for an unknown reason, and the remainder were aquired at some point. So at least ten of the 26 had an outcome that is different from the assumption of dividend growth every year through thick and thin.

Indeed, dividend stocks are a fine investment vehicle, but they are not magical and somehow immune to being a stock .
 
Last edited:
If you take the time element out of investments you will do very well in the stock market. As the result of my strategy, my asset has increased in wealth equal to 1.5% of the people in the USA. A problem I see is the financial advisors scare you by presenting only the down side of the stock market rather than its long term growth over years. I am my own financial advisor since 1981 and profited from my decisions. You can too, but maybe too late.
 
the human brain is flawed …,research shows it hates losing money more than making money . so it does not give us rational decisions when we have actual money at risk ...

when we think out things hypothetically we use different parts of the brain which can be very rational . as soon as real money is involved we get handed bad decisions ...

so to many people end up believing their own bull-sh*t and become anti investing and end up not doing as well as they should have.

if anything i find advisers overly optimistic and most of their portfolios for retirees count on prosperity and low rates to do well . they have no real chance of having a positive return when the crap hits the fan as it always does .
 

You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top