Keeping A Weather Eye On the Economy and Supply Chain.

[JonDouglas]

There are places you can go to get good clues on how the economy is faring without wading through a whole lot of media garbage. One I have used is the commuter train (into the big city) parking lot and the extent to which it is full. That has been a good indicator over the years and, until the covid shutdown, it was mostly full on weekdays. At present, it has gone from being totally empty to mostly empty, suggesting things are not yet rosy. Another interesting indicator is rail shipments, such as below.

Along with trucking and air freight stats, you can get an idea of supply chain dynamics and economic conditions. These are the things analysts look at but have been known to slant or spin their interpretations to fit whatever they're selling or pushing at the moment. Then of course there are the ever-present volumes of government price, wage, inflation, etc. data . For a more immediate and real snapshot, I look at the parking lot. I would probably do more of this (and possibly profit) if unable to ride, travel and/or be so involved in photography.

Thoughts?

 

[Cameron]

EarlyMay i ordered some farm equipment from a producer in Italy, with and ETA of late May. Just had a call it is in. A friend doing home renos ordered Ikea cabinets which took 6 months to arrive .

there seems to be a lot broken out there. Shipping world wide a mess and rates sky rocketing on the baltic index.

Sounds like the IMF is now looking for cover to allow countries to print more money and particularly create more demand for the US dollar…rising tide of printing using the virus as the excuse as usual. Another 650 billion here and there….surreal

IMF is now looking for cover to allow countries to print more money and particularly create more demand for the US dollar. What's another 650 billion or so of printed money in this crazy world. https://www.thenationalnews.com/bus...9/imf-board-backs-650bn-increase-in-reserves/

The US 10 year treasury is now down to 1.18….futures are lower stil.Fed having trouble keeping the bond market from going negative which will turn securities on its head . more talk about Wells fargo trying to get ahead of the bad loans book while JPM has cut lines of credit for customers….money velocity is starting to drop vertically

duck and run as liquidity is evaporating for when a timely market exit is needed

 

[JonDouglas]

EarlyMay i ordered some farm equipment from a producer in Italy, with and ETA of late May. Just had a call it is in. A friend doing home renos ordered Ikea cabinets which took 6 months to arrive .

there seems to be a lot broken out there. Shipping world wide a mess and rates sky rocketing on the baltic index.

Sounds like the IMF is now looking for cover to allow countries to print more money and particularly create more demand for the US dollar…rising tide of printing using the virus as the excuse as usual. Another 650 billion here and there….surreal

IMF is now looking for cover to allow countries to print more money and particularly create more demand for the US dollar. What's another 650 billion or so of printed money in this crazy world. https://www.thenationalnews.com/bus...9/imf-board-backs-650bn-increase-in-reserves/

The US 10 year treasury is now down to 1.18….futures are lower stil.Fed having trouble keeping the bond market from going negative which will turn securities on its head . more talk about Wells fargo trying to get ahead of the bad loans book while JPM has cut lines of credit for customers….money velocity is starting to drop vertically

duck and run as liquidity is evaporating for when a timely market exit is needed

It would seem that printing and pouring more money into the economy could make things even worse if not done carefully. (e.g., the fire's getting weak, I'm really cold, pour a bunch of fuel on it)

 

[Cameron]

It would seem that printing and pouring more money into the economy could make things even worse if not done carefully. (e.g., the fire's getting weak, I'm really cold, pour a bunch of fuel on it)

This is one of my worries ! I have no crystal ball but I have read a lot of history. And if things go wrong what does this do to all ETF's people, hold stocks and importanly pension funds that with low bond returns have been forced into riskier areas such as stocks and owing airports

 

[JonDouglas]

This is one of my worries ! I have no crystal ball but I have read a lot of history. And if things go wrong what does this do to all ETF's people, hold stocks and importanly pension funds that with low bond returns have been forced into riskier areas such as stocks and owing airports

Is if fair to say that for people on Main Street, the rising cost of goods and services starts to really hurt - most especially to those on fixed incomes?