Kentucky Derby this Saturday

debodun

debodun

SF VIP
Location
way upstate in New York, USA
Odds as of 11 a.m. ET on Monday, April 27

1. Renegade, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 4-1
2. Albus, Riley Mott, Manny Franco, 30-1
3. Intrepido, Jeff Mullins, Hector Berrios, 50-1
4. Litmus Test, Bob Baffert, Martin Garcia, 30-1
5. Right to Party, Kenny McPeek, Chris Elliott, 30-1
6. Commandment, Brad Cox, Luis Saez, 6-1
7. Danon Bourbon, Manabu Ikezoe, Atsuya Nishimura, 20-1
8. So Happy, Mark Glatt, Mike Smith, 15-1
9. The Puma, Gustavo Delgado, Javier Castellano, 10-1
10. Wonder Dean, Daisuke Takayanagi, Ryusei Sakai, 30-1
11. Incredibolt, Riley Mott, Jaime Torres, 20-1
12. Chief Wallabee, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 8-1
14. Potente, Bob Baffert, Juan Hernandez, 20-1
15. Emerging Market, Chad Brown, Flavien Prat, 15-1
16. Pavlovian, Doug O’Neill, Edwin Maldonado, 30-1
17. Six Speed, Bhupat Seemar, Brian Hernandez Jr., 50-1
18. Further Ado, Brad Cox, John Velazquez, 6-1
19. Golden Tempo, Cherie DeVaux, Jose Ortiz, 30-1
20. Fulleffort, Brad Cox, Tyler Gaffalione, 20-1
 
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I know virtually nothing about this sport. If I'd go by names alone and not odds, I kind of like Incredibolt.

I *do* pay attention enough every year to see what Dannielynn is wearing and how she's grown. And I saw her pic with Larry today and it is uncanny how much she looks like her mother now.
 

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I think I'll pick So Happy because I know Mike Smith is a winning jockey. I don't really trust Bob Baffert's stables these days.

I really like to see the horses first, but I've learned that I can watch the entire two hour pre-race show and only see stories about the owners.

I don't gamble, but I write my pick on a post-it before the race so I can brag to the family later if my horse wins. I have a pretty good record.
 
Okay, I poked around a little more and I'm sticking with Incredibolt because I've always had a soft spot for underdogs. I even asked AI about it and got this:
  • He’s not a top favorite, but not a hopeless outsider either.
  • Think of him as a “value longshot”—unlikely, but plausible if things break perfectly.
 
In 2009, the Canadian owned entry Mine That Bird, won the Derby, at 50 to 1 odds. Paying $102.00 on a $2 bet. The most famous Canadian bred winner of the Derby was Northern Dancer, owned by Winfield Farms of Toronto. That was in I believe, 1964. JIMB>
 
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