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New evidence shows how badly NFL teams discriminate against Black QBs in the draft
From 2010 to 2022, teams were chronically underrating Black quarterbacks in the draft, a new statistical analysis from SFGATE shows
SFGATE Sep 11, 2023
The NFL presents itself as America’s most cutthroat meritocracy. And yet evidence continues to show that teams screw up the single most important decision they make due to racial bias. From 2010 to 2022, teams were chronically underrating Black quarterbacks in the draft, a new statistical analysis from SFGATE shows.
QBs selected in those drafts had four times better odds of reaching at least one Pro Bowl if they were Black. SFGATE’s analysis found a statistically significant gap between the rate that Black quarterbacks reached the Pro Bowl relative to their peers despite controlling for draft position.
At every stage of the draft, the average Black quarterback outperformed their non-Black peers. In fact, the analysis found that the average Black quarterback was more likely to receive at least one Pro Bowl selection than the average non-Black quarterback selected 66 picks (roughly two rounds) earlier. The evidence strongly suggests that racial bias is blinding teams in the draft process, leading them to prefer inferior quarterbacks as long as they’re not Black.
In other words, Black quarterbacks are penalized in the draft solely for being Black, our analysis suggests, and it’s a penalty that reverberates years into their professional careers.
In a perfect world, there should be no disparity between the rate that Black quarterbacks drafted at any point reach the Pro Bowl compared with non-Black quarterbacks drafted at the same point.
These findings are not a reflection of the players selected but a reflection of the scouting departments and executives who made decisions during the draft. Despite persistent claims otherwise, there is no evidence that a player’s race has any impact on their athletic ability.
Rather, these results reinforce longstanding claims that Black quarterbacks face double standards, leading NFL teams to undervalue them in the draft.
Tens of millions of dollars lost
Dating back at least three decades, well more than half of the league has been made up of Black players, although that number has slightly dipped in recent years. But less than a fourth of QBs drafted from 2010 to 2022 were Black.
“Black quarterbacks probably aren’t getting in the pool unless they’re amazing,” David Berri, a professor of economics at Southern Utah University who has extensively studied the effects of race in the NFL, told SFGATE. “White quarterbacks are getting in the pool when they’re not amazing. That’s why you see this.”
The data backs up Berri’s point. While nearly 1 in 3 (32.4%) signal-callers drafted between Round 1 and Round 3 were Black, less than 11.7% of quarterbacks drafted between Round 5 and Round 7 were Black.
Yet even though NFL teams have dedicated so many more picks to non-Black quarterbacks in the later rounds, the last non-Black quarterbacks selected after the 102nd pick (when Kirk Cousins was selected back in 2016) to go on to reach a Pro Bowl were Derek Anderson and Matt Cassel back in 2005. Over that span, Dak Prescott (135th), Tyrod Taylor (180th) and Tyler Huntley (undrafted free agent), a trio of Black quarterbacks, have all earned at least one Pro Bowl selection despite their limited draft pedigree.
The trend is visible throughout the draft: Generational talent Patrick Mahomes slid to the 10th pick. Future MVP Lamar Jackson went 32nd overall. (You may remember one ex-NFL GM saying before Jackson’s draft that he should play wide receiver.) All-Pro Russell Wilson wasn’t drafted until the third round.
This is impacting not just opportunities but also compensation. The NFL has a tiered pay scale for players based on the draft, meaning players make more the higher they’re picked. That also generally — with notable exceptions — leads teams to invest more in their development and hang on to them longer.
Jackson, for example, received a four-year contract with roughly $9.5 million in guarantees after he was selected with the final pick of the first round in 2018. Baker Mayfield, the first pick in the same draft, signed a four-year deal that guaranteed him $32.7 million.
Back in 2016, Prescott’s rookie-scale contract paid him just over $2.7 million over four seasons, with little of that money guaranteed. Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, two white quarterbacks who have had undeniably inferior careers, were the top two picks in the draft, and both received more than $25 million in their rookie deals.
Berri recently co-authored a paper on the determinants of Black quarterback pay in the NFL that found highly drafted quarterbacks tend to receive more opportunities than those selected later in the draft, even when controlling for performance.
“Black quarterbacks seem much more likely to be evaluated in terms of ‘what have you done lately? ’” Berri and his co-authors, Alex Farnell and Robert Simmons, wrote. “The halo effect from being a top draft pick seems to vanish much more quickly for the Black quarterback compared to White counterpart. The difference in rate of decay of early draft pick pay premium is substantial. Whereas it takes around 10 to 12 years for the early draft pick pay premium to vanish for White signal callers, a comparable Black quarterback sees his early round pay premium only last for 6 to 7 years.”
From 2010 to 2022, teams were chronically underrating Black quarterbacks in the draft, a new statistical analysis from SFGATE shows
SFGATE Sep 11, 2023
The NFL presents itself as America’s most cutthroat meritocracy. And yet evidence continues to show that teams screw up the single most important decision they make due to racial bias. From 2010 to 2022, teams were chronically underrating Black quarterbacks in the draft, a new statistical analysis from SFGATE shows.
QBs selected in those drafts had four times better odds of reaching at least one Pro Bowl if they were Black. SFGATE’s analysis found a statistically significant gap between the rate that Black quarterbacks reached the Pro Bowl relative to their peers despite controlling for draft position.
At every stage of the draft, the average Black quarterback outperformed their non-Black peers. In fact, the analysis found that the average Black quarterback was more likely to receive at least one Pro Bowl selection than the average non-Black quarterback selected 66 picks (roughly two rounds) earlier. The evidence strongly suggests that racial bias is blinding teams in the draft process, leading them to prefer inferior quarterbacks as long as they’re not Black.
In other words, Black quarterbacks are penalized in the draft solely for being Black, our analysis suggests, and it’s a penalty that reverberates years into their professional careers.
In a perfect world, there should be no disparity between the rate that Black quarterbacks drafted at any point reach the Pro Bowl compared with non-Black quarterbacks drafted at the same point.
These findings are not a reflection of the players selected but a reflection of the scouting departments and executives who made decisions during the draft. Despite persistent claims otherwise, there is no evidence that a player’s race has any impact on their athletic ability.
Rather, these results reinforce longstanding claims that Black quarterbacks face double standards, leading NFL teams to undervalue them in the draft.
Tens of millions of dollars lost
Dating back at least three decades, well more than half of the league has been made up of Black players, although that number has slightly dipped in recent years. But less than a fourth of QBs drafted from 2010 to 2022 were Black.
“Black quarterbacks probably aren’t getting in the pool unless they’re amazing,” David Berri, a professor of economics at Southern Utah University who has extensively studied the effects of race in the NFL, told SFGATE. “White quarterbacks are getting in the pool when they’re not amazing. That’s why you see this.”
The data backs up Berri’s point. While nearly 1 in 3 (32.4%) signal-callers drafted between Round 1 and Round 3 were Black, less than 11.7% of quarterbacks drafted between Round 5 and Round 7 were Black.
Yet even though NFL teams have dedicated so many more picks to non-Black quarterbacks in the later rounds, the last non-Black quarterbacks selected after the 102nd pick (when Kirk Cousins was selected back in 2016) to go on to reach a Pro Bowl were Derek Anderson and Matt Cassel back in 2005. Over that span, Dak Prescott (135th), Tyrod Taylor (180th) and Tyler Huntley (undrafted free agent), a trio of Black quarterbacks, have all earned at least one Pro Bowl selection despite their limited draft pedigree.
The trend is visible throughout the draft: Generational talent Patrick Mahomes slid to the 10th pick. Future MVP Lamar Jackson went 32nd overall. (You may remember one ex-NFL GM saying before Jackson’s draft that he should play wide receiver.) All-Pro Russell Wilson wasn’t drafted until the third round.
This is impacting not just opportunities but also compensation. The NFL has a tiered pay scale for players based on the draft, meaning players make more the higher they’re picked. That also generally — with notable exceptions — leads teams to invest more in their development and hang on to them longer.
Jackson, for example, received a four-year contract with roughly $9.5 million in guarantees after he was selected with the final pick of the first round in 2018. Baker Mayfield, the first pick in the same draft, signed a four-year deal that guaranteed him $32.7 million.
Back in 2016, Prescott’s rookie-scale contract paid him just over $2.7 million over four seasons, with little of that money guaranteed. Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, two white quarterbacks who have had undeniably inferior careers, were the top two picks in the draft, and both received more than $25 million in their rookie deals.
Berri recently co-authored a paper on the determinants of Black quarterback pay in the NFL that found highly drafted quarterbacks tend to receive more opportunities than those selected later in the draft, even when controlling for performance.
“Black quarterbacks seem much more likely to be evaluated in terms of ‘what have you done lately? ’” Berri and his co-authors, Alex Farnell and Robert Simmons, wrote. “The halo effect from being a top draft pick seems to vanish much more quickly for the Black quarterback compared to White counterpart. The difference in rate of decay of early draft pick pay premium is substantial. Whereas it takes around 10 to 12 years for the early draft pick pay premium to vanish for White signal callers, a comparable Black quarterback sees his early round pay premium only last for 6 to 7 years.”