Percentages please? If you know.

[chic]

I've asked this question before but we always have new members here so maybe someone will be able to shed some light on this question for me because I have looked everywhere and cannot find an answer.

Let's say there are 250 people in an indoor area that may be exposed to covid. Of those 250 people what percentage will develop symptoms?

Of those that develop symptoms, what percentage will require hospitalization?

Of those that require hospitalization, what percentage will die of covid?

Thanks in advance. It's important when asked to make the difficult decisions we are all facing to have as much information as possible.

 

[Keesha]

I don’t think this type of question can be answered. There are too many variables for there to be an absolute answer.

1/. How old are the participants?
2/. What is their current health like?
3/. Were they wearing masks?
4/. Were they practicing social distancing?
5/. Were they using disinfectants?
6/. What is the care going to be like for those who contract the virus?
7/. How well protected are the care workers?
8/. Will these patients be on ventilators?
9/. Are these patients allowed visitors, either in person or online?
10/. What is the facility like?
11/. Do they have the latest equipment?
12/. How many support workers to registered nurses are there? What’s the ratio?
13/.Does the facility taking in the viral infected patients get reimbursed an extra 40% if the cause of death is from Covid?

.....This could carry on forever and a day.

 

[asp3]

I don’t think this type of question can be answered. There are too many variables for their to be an absolute answer.
1/. How old are the participants?
2/. What is their current health like?
3/. Were they wearing masks?
4/. Were they practicing social distancing?
5/. Were they using disinfectants?
6/. What is the care going to be like for those who contract the virus?
7/. How well protected are the care workers?
8/. Will these patients be on ventilators?
9/. Are these patients allowed visitors, either in person or online?
10/. What is the facility like?
11/. Do they have the latest equipment?
12/. How many support workers to registered nurses are there? What’s the ratio?
13/.Does the facility taking in the viral infected patients get reimbursed as extra 40% if the cause of death is from Covid?

.....This could carry on forever and a day.

Great questions but I think you left out the three most important questions:

1. What is the airflow like in the indoor area?
2. What will the 250 people be doing?
3. How big is the indoor area?

There was the choral competition early on in France that was a super spreader event but I haven't been able to find the articles about it.

Correction My mind is not what it once was, the closest thing I could find was a multi day worship gathering in France that was a super spreader event early on. There were multiple gospel choir performances as part of the event. The best information about choirs is below. The info about the French worship gathering is in this article https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-church-spec-idUKKBN21H0Q2


Another one happened in Washington early on in the pandemic. That one is reported on in this article https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-superspreader-singing.html .

There have also been reports about early infections in gyms where those in a spinning class had a lot of infections whereas folks who went to a yoga class didn't get infected. So it really has to do with the amount of forceful breathing going on in the enclosed area. I can try to find the article about the gym if requested.

 

[digifoss]

I agree, too many variables to figure accurately for the given circumstances. The worldometer website does show some interesting numbers though. On April 25th, the number of new cases in the U S was 47456. On the same day, the number of new deaths was 273. In the general population, that would translate roughly to 1 person out of every 7100 got the virus. Out of the 47456 infected people, 1 out of every 173 died.