Plane Down

oldman

oldman

Well-known Member
Location
PA
It has been reported that a small Cessna has most likely crashed in Lake Erie with six people on-board. The U.S. Coast Guard is searching for any wreckage, but weather conditions are hampering their efforts.

I imagine that the lake is very cold at this time of the year, so if there are any survivors in the water they probably will not last long.

I am keeping those involved in my thoughts.
 

Good thoughts going out for the victims in that crash Oldman, please keep us updated, hope there are survivors.
 
oldman said:
It has been reported that a small Cessna has most likely crashed in Lake Erie with six people on-board. The U.S. Coast Guard is searching for any wreckage, but weather conditions are hampering their efforts.

I imagine that the lake is very cold at this time of the year, so if there are any survivors in the water they probably will not last long.

I am keeping those involved in my thoughts.
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I don't think people realize how nasty the weather can get around the Great Lakes. They took many a ship and probaalby more than one plane. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Best wishes to those on that plane.
 

The water temperature in Lake Erie around the Cleveland shore area is being reported to be in the mid 30's degrees F. Using a chart that I have here at my home, I see that if the water temperature is 35 degrees, a person could only survive up to an hour and a half. Normally within fifteen minutes a person may go unconscious. The U.S. Coast Guard has suspended their search operation and has turned over the 'recovery' operation to Cleveland with the U.S.C.G. acting as only giving assistance. It is believed that all aboard have perished. Due to the high winds and waves, the searchers are having problems locating a crash site or debris field.

It appears that weather may have played a part in the accident.
 
Well, what concerns me is that the plane is thought to have gone down soon after takeoff. If that information is correct and given the weather report, I have to suspect that perhaps there may have been snow and/or ice accumulation on the wings and horizontal stabilizer, which in turn would restrict airflow over the wings. I Googled the specs of the Cessna Citation 525 that was being flown in this accident and I did find that the plane does have adequate deicing protection, but we have to keep in mind that the pilot also has to be cognizant of how much ice and/or snow the plane has built up on wings and the horizontal stabilizer. The owner-pilot of this plane was described as an experienced pilot, but even so, some pilots will forego checking for ice and opt for having too much confidence with the plane's deicing systems. I am unsure if Burke Lakefront Airport in Cleveland, which is where the plane departed from has deicing available.

Unlike major airlines, whereby; we operated under a guidance manual from our airline, owner-pilots have the final say as to whether they will fly or not, unless the airport has a restrictive policy that allows the airport's operators to make the call, if planes will be permitted to fly or not. In this case, the city of Cleveland owns and operates the airport. Cleveland's Burke Lakefront Airport lists their longest runway at just over 6000 ft., which would be to short for larger jets to land and takeoff. Cleveland Hopkins International is Cleveland's main airport.

I guess that I am biased, but I feel horrible knowing that there may be six bodies floating around in that frigid water. This has become a constant on my mind.
 
So far, searchers have only found some type of a bag that may have belonged to a passenger that was on-board the ill-fated aircraft that went down in Lake Erie several days ago. The search now continues, but weather on the lake is still a bit nasty and is hampering efforts by the recovery teams. When the leasing company that I fly for now since leaving the airline ordered their new Gulfstream business jet, I talked the company into ordering both a cockpit voice recorder (CVR) and a flight data recorder (FDR) installed. Both of these recorders are known as the black boxes. The boxes also have a locator beacon attached to them, which transmits a "ping" every thirty seconds for up to thirty days. This is done to help searchers locate a downed aircraft in water in a short amount of time. It's something that a pilot hopes that is never needed or used, but if the case may arise that it is, I would want the plane and any survivors or deceased passengers picked up ASAP.

I can't imagine these poor people, who are now presumed dead, floating in those cold waters of Lake Erie. It kind of reminds me of when the SS Edmund Fitzgerald went down in November of 1975 with 29 on-board.
 
Still no news that the missing plane has been located. My guess now is that the plane did not break apart. There may only be a few parts that are lying about. No real debris field exists. The plane went down shortly after takeoff, which tells me that the plane was still at a low altitude and probably did not go into the lake nose down. The plane may have been at a hard angle as it entered the lake, say 45 degrees, which would have allowed the plane to stay mostly intact. It is possible that the plane and its passengers could still be mostly intact and lying on the bottom, which would explain why rescuers have been unable to locate the plane.

To me, this is going to be a real mystery until the plane has been located and the reason why the plane went down. I am still sticking with weather related issues as to why the plane went down, although other reason do exist, including engine failure.
 
This crash really has me stumped. If the plane had gone down nose first, I would have expected that searchers should have seen a debris field because the plane should have broken apart upon impact. According to the reports that I have read, the plane fell off the radar shortly after takeoff. Along with that message and considering the weather conditions at the time of the takeoff, I am almost willing to bet that the weather had something to do with this crash. Perhaps, ice or snow build up on the wings and horizontal stabilizer makes sense. Some private pilots expect too much out of their plane's wing heaters and will decline to pay for deicing from a vendor truck located at the airport.

On top of all that, I am also going to guess that because the plane was a small business jet that there were no black boxes on-board or a locator ping unit. This crash is typical of a water crash. Once the plane goes under the water, unless there is a locator beacon transmitting from the plane and no debris field, good luck finding it.

I just cannot imagine why it has not yet been located. Once found, I would not be surprised if they found the plane pretty much together and the passengers still seated.
 
oldman said:
This crash really has me stumped. If the plane had gone down nose first, I would have expected that searchers should have seen a debris field because the plane should have broken apart upon impact. According to the reports that I have read, the plane fell off the radar shortly after takeoff. Along with that message and considering the weather conditions at the time of the takeoff, I am almost willing to bet that the weather had something to do with this crash. Perhaps, ice or snow build up on the wings and horizontal stabilizer makes sense. Some private pilots expect too much out of their plane's wing heaters and will decline to pay for deicing from a vendor truck located at the airport.

On top of all that, I am also going to guess that because the plane was a small business jet that there were no black boxes on-board or a locator ping unit. This crash is typical of a water crash. Once the plane goes under the water, unless there is a locator beacon transmitting from the plane and no debris field, good luck finding it.

I just cannot imagine why it has not yet been located. Once found, I would not be surprised if they found the plane pretty much together and the passengers still seated.
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Just curious, Oldman, as to why you think this. Do you mean the impact itself would have killed them but not torn the plane apart? Or that they drowned in their seats? I don't mean to be ghoulish, but for some reason I'm quite interested in what actually happens when planes go down.

I've had two REALLY scary episodes in airplanes, one in a commercial airliner and one in a private single engine aircraft. I will NEVER EVER EVER get on a small aircraft with a private pilot again, EVER. No offense to private pilots, but I think they sometimes overestimate what they can handle and take off when they shouldn't, because of macho-ness or bravado or unrealistic-ness or whatever, and you can't pull over and wait something out in an aircraft.
 
Think about how Sully put the plane down on the Hudson. He was able to keep the attitude of the plane level for landing. This allowed the plane to float for a period of time and also allowed the passengers to get out of their seats, through the exit door and onto the wings. Had the plane gone down nose first, the plane more than likely would have came apart creating a debris field. If you recall, back in the 80's, an airline named Air Florida and Flight 90 went down in the Potomac just after takeoff due to ice and snow build up on the wings, plus additional pilot errors. That plane struck the railings of a highway bridge and sort of began to tumble, however, there still managed to be a few survivors that were pulled out of the Potomac.

Without having all of the facts, this plane could have went into the water very quickly and not enough time for the passengers to react by getting out of their seats and attempting to exit the plane. I believe that there were 4 adults and 2 children on-board. It is possible that at least a few of the passengers may have stayed belted in their seats. This is what is confusing me. Why haven't any parts been recovered or any bodies been found floating? Are they still in the plane?

If the weather did not play a part in this crash, then I would venture to guess that the pilot relied to heavily on his autopilot. He may not have had enough power to climb and with the autopilot turned on, the plane may have went into a stall condition. If the pilot miscalculated his weight, that would explain why the plane was going into a stall condition when he turned on the autopilot. Hopefully, they will soon find this plane and then we will know the answers. I find all of this very intriguing.
 
It is being reported that the CVR has been recovered and also some human remains. After the remains have been verified as those belonging to the people on-board the downed aircraft and the CVR has been analyzed, the public will be informed of the findings.
 

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