Social Security reveals when funds will run out for benefit payments

Knight

Knight

Well-known Member
According to the report, cash for the Social Security program will run out in 2031, just eight-years time. If more funds are not directed to the support then 66 million recipients will have their benefits cut by a quarter.

This prediction is a year closer than the previous estimate of 2032 due to slower-than-expected economic growth.

“Social Security and Medicare are two bedrock programs that older Americans rely upon for their retirement security,” said trustee lead and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. “The Biden-Harris Administration is committed to ensuring the long-term viability of these critical programs so that retirees can receive the hard-earned benefits they’re owed.”

While the program won’t run out of money completely, there would be a trust fund shortfall. Retirees would receive lower Social Security payments. Social Security is estimated to provide at least half the income of 50% of older married couples and 70% of older singles.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/ret...1&cvid=f923b4c6ec3846f5b0628feed599645d&ei=42
 

One of the challenges is that so many men in the "prime" ages of 25-54 have dropped out of the workforce. There are quite a few articles on this, but this the most recent from CBS News. (Sorry I couldn't find a way to delete the damned pictures.)

"A large number of American men of prime working age — between 25 and 54 years old — are not working or even looking for work, resulting in a major hole in the American economy.

In 1953, 98% of men in that age range had a job or were looking for one. That number has fallen ever since. Today, 7.2 million men have essentially dropped out of the workforce.

It's "a matter of our national identity," said Mike Rowe, the host of "Dirty Jobs" on Discovery. "I think it's a giant issue. ... And by the time we realize how big an issue it is, we're going to have a hard time turning the temperature down."

It's not an issue rooted in the unemployment rate, which at 3.5% is the lowest it's been in 50 years. So, what's behind the phenomenon?

More jobs than workers​

"We have more jobs than we have people for — about one and a half jobs for every one worker," said Jay Timmons, who leads the National Association of Manufacturers, an advocacy group based in Washington, D.C., that represents thousands of manufacturers across the country.


Timmons describes all this as a profound problem for the companies he represents. The No. 1 challenge for most of them right now is filling open jobs.

"I never thought I'd be able to say that," he told CBS News. "But now it's kind of an all hands on deck. We've got to fill these jobs that are open."

More than 770,000 manufacturing jobs are open right now, according to the latest federal count, from November. The number has surged in recent years as companies reinvest in American-made products — or try to.

With manufacturing workers earning more than $30 an hour on average, Timmons said the problem is not the pay, but the perception."
 
seadoug said:
One of the challenges is that so many men in the "prime" ages of 25-54 have dropped out of the workforce. There are quite a few articles on this, but this the most recent from CBS News. (Sorry I couldn't find a way to delete the damned pictures.)

"A large number of American men of prime working age — between 25 and 54 years old — are not working or even looking for work, resulting in a major hole in the American economy.

In 1953, 98% of men in that age range had a job or were looking for one. That number has fallen ever since. Today, 7.2 million men have essentially dropped out of the workforce.

It's "a matter of our national identity," said Mike Rowe, the host of "Dirty Jobs" on Discovery. "I think it's a giant issue. ... And by the time we realize how big an issue it is, we're going to have a hard time turning the temperature down."

It's not an issue rooted in the unemployment rate, which at 3.5% is the lowest it's been in 50 years. So, what's behind the phenomenon?

More jobs than workers​

"We have more jobs than we have people for — about one and a half jobs for every one worker," said Jay Timmons, who leads the National Association of Manufacturers, an advocacy group based in Washington, D.C., that represents thousands of manufacturers across the country.


Timmons describes all this as a profound problem for the companies he represents. The No. 1 challenge for most of them right now is filling open jobs.

"I never thought I'd be able to say that," he told CBS News. "But now it's kind of an all hands on deck. We've got to fill these jobs that are open."

More than 770,000 manufacturing jobs are open right now, according to the latest federal count, from November. The number has surged in recent years as companies reinvest in American-made products — or try to.

With manufacturing workers earning more than $30 an hour on average, Timmons said the problem is not the pay, but the perception."
Click to expand...
This is what I'm hearing and reading, too. Also that the US birth rate has been dropping for a few decades.
 

seadoug said:
With manufacturing workers earning more than $30 an hour on average, Timmons said the problem is not the pay, but the perception."
Click to expand...
Those $30 an hour jobs usually have 5+ years experience. You can't just walk into most employers and get top dollar. When I left mold Injecting, the top pay for operator was $18 and we were the best paid in 4 companies who did our jobs.

The only jobs that paid well in the company, were supervisor, mold mechanic and tooling.
 
Disgustedman said:
Those $30 an hour jobs usually have 5+ years experience. You can't just walk into most employers and get top dollar. When I left mold Injecting, the top pay for operator was $18 and we were the best paid in 4 companies who did our jobs.

The only jobs that paid well in the company, were supervisor, mold mechanic and tooling.
Click to expand...
That's true, but entry positions pay very well. And people can expect to be hired fresh out of a training course or apprenticeship, and they'll get further training on the job as well.

There are 500,000 skills positions available right now in the US; electricians, plumbers, metals and wood workers, etc.. Skill providing companies are desperate for employees, but kids in high school very rarely hear about this. High schools are too focused on talking kids into getting "free" college loans and grants.
 
I just read a great commentary on how both the Dems and the Repubs are looking to cut SS payments by doing nothing and letting the 70% reduction take place in the early 2030's. No need to vote for a cut, just let it happen as the system runs short of money.
 
seadoug said:
One of the challenges is that so many men in the "prime" ages of 25-54 have dropped out of the workforce. There are quite a few articles on this, but this the most recent from CBS News. (Sorry I couldn't find a way to delete the damned pictures.)

"A large number of American men of prime working age — between 25 and 54 years old — are not working or even looking for work, resulting in a major hole in the American economy.

In 1953, 98% of men in that age range had a job or were looking for one. That number has fallen ever since. Today, 7.2 million men have essentially dropped out of the workforce.

It's "a matter of our national identity," said Mike Rowe, the host of "Dirty Jobs" on Discovery. "I think it's a giant issue. ... And by the time we realize how big an issue it is, we're going to have a hard time turning the temperature down."

It's not an issue rooted in the unemployment rate, which at 3.5% is the lowest it's been in 50 years. So, what's behind the phenomenon?

More jobs than workers​

"We have more jobs than we have people for — about one and a half jobs for every one worker," said Jay Timmons, who leads the National Association of Manufacturers, an advocacy group based in Washington, D.C., that represents thousands of manufacturers across the country.


Timmons describes all this as a profound problem for the companies he represents. The No. 1 challenge for most of them right now is filling open jobs.

"I never thought I'd be able to say that," he told CBS News. "But now it's kind of an all hands on deck. We've got to fill these jobs that are open."

More than 770,000 manufacturing jobs are open right now, according to the latest federal count, from November. The number has surged in recent years as companies reinvest in American-made products — or try to.

With manufacturing workers earning more than $30 an hour on average, Timmons said the problem is not the pay, but the perception."
Click to expand...
How many women worked(outside the home) in 1953 vs 2023? How many men are taking care of their children since their wives are now the sole or primary breadwinners? The .gov has no idea how to track the "gig" economy either so there's lots of holes in that story.
 
Knight said:
Social Security program will run out in 2031
Click to expand...
Not sure what this will really mean. The Social Security Trust Fund is just a paper thing, all of the money is in government securities, meaning we owe the money to ourselves... Congress can easily fix this, one or more of a few ways:
  • Cut benefits, I think this will be politically near impossible. But I do expect to see some trimming around the margins...
  • Just keep on paying and add the short fall to our deficit - maybe most likely due to political indecision...
  • Raise the retirement age - I think this is coming, and some is probably already built into the estimates. Not sure it will be enough.
  • Use money raised by other means, like income tax, to cover the shortfall.
  • Raise the social security tax.
  • Invite more young working immigrants in, I think immigration has already relieved social security to some extent. I think this is a terrible idea. The Impact of Immigration on Social Security and Medicare: A Conceptual Primer
 
Brookswood said:
I just read a great commentary on how both the Dems and the Repubs are looking to cut SS payments by doing nothing and letting the 70% reduction take place in the early 2030's. No need to vote for a cut, just let it happen as the system runs short of money.
Click to expand...
Political suicide, it's never going to happen. And one or both sides will perceive an advantage in maintaining the program so the other will have to go along for the ride.
 
Last edited:
These were the things done in the 1980s to avert the crisis then. I don't think they should raise the retirement age any farther, and I hope they don't tax more of our Social Security benefit. This year they raised the limit of income that people don't have to pay social security tax. I'd prefer they just raise that value as high as needed to solve the problem, if those CEOs of health care companies had to pay SS tax on all two hundred million of their salary instead of just on the first 160k, that would seem like justice to me! ha!

The following are some of the measures taken in the 1980s to avoid Social Security running out of money:
  1. Increase in Payroll Taxes: The payroll tax rate was increased from 6.65% to 7.65% for employees and from 7.15% to 7.65% for employers. This increase in payroll taxes helped to increase the revenue of the Social Security Trust Fund.
  2. Delay in Cost-of-Living Adjustments (COLA): The COLA was delayed for six months in 1983, which helped to save money for the Social Security program.
  3. Increase in the Retirement Age: The retirement age was increased gradually from 65 to 67, which helped to reduce the number of people who could claim Social Security benefits early.
  4. Taxation of Social Security Benefits: Social Security benefits were made partially taxable for people with higher incomes, which increased the revenue of the Social Security Trust Fund.
 
againstthegrain said:
How many women worked(outside the home) in 1953 vs 2023? How many men are taking care of their children since their wives are now the sole or primary breadwinners? The .gov has no idea how to track the "gig" economy either so there's lots of holes in that story.
Click to expand...
Very true. I know several couples in that age group where the wives are quite happily in the bread-winning role and the husbands are excellent care-givers to their children and run the household.
 
Murrmurr said:
That's true, but entry positions pay very well. And people can expect to be hired fresh out of a training course or apprenticeship, and they'll get further training on the job as well.

There are 500,000 skills positions available right now in the US; electricians, plumbers, metals and wood workers, etc.. Skill providing companies are desperate for employees, but kids in high school very rarely hear about this. High schools are too focused on talking kids into getting "free" college loans and grants.
Click to expand...
Only in California you get paid well. I was making $26 an hour as an Executive Assistant in San Jose, CA, back in 1999. Here in AZ you have to have a BS Degree or better to get $20 hour today or work production 10- 12 hour shift. :-(
There are many seniors who want to work, and are capable of filling those open postions. I have applied to many jobs in a variety of industries and NOT a single call back! So I believe these employers who are reporting that no on wants to work, must be receiving "Bail out" funds from the government.
 
Last edited:
Pepper2131 said:
Only in California you get paid well. I was making $26 an hour as an Executive Assistant in San Jose, CA, back in 1999. Here in AZ you have to have a BS Degree or better to get $20 hour today or work production 10- 12 hour shift. :-(
There are many seniors who want to work, and are capable of filling those open postions. I have applied to many jobs in a variety of industries and NOT a single call back! So I believe these employers who are reporting that no on wants to work, must be receiving "Bail out" funds from the government.
Click to expand...
Executive Assistant in what field?

I was talking about skills jobs; construction, plumbers, electricians, fitters, etc.
 
Knight said:
According to the report, cash for the Social Security program will run out in 2031, just eight-years time. If more funds are not directed to the support then 66 million recipients will have their benefits cut by a quarter.

This prediction is a year closer than the previous estimate of 2032 due to slower-than-expected economic growth.

“Social Security and Medicare are two bedrock programs that older Americans rely upon for their retirement security,” said trustee lead and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. “The Biden-Harris Administration is committed to ensuring the long-term viability of these critical programs so that retirees can receive the hard-earned benefits they’re owed.”

While the program won’t run out of money completely, there would be a trust fund shortfall. Retirees would receive lower Social Security payments. Social Security is estimated to provide at least half the income of 50% of older married couples and 70% of older singles.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/ret...1&cvid=f923b4c6ec3846f5b0628feed599645d&ei=42
Click to expand...
I have posted here several times over the years about the likelihood of a cut in benefits due to the depletion of funds and warned members to start preparing! The first time I was pooh-poohed. On no, the government wouldn't let that happen. Also some disputed that seniors already getting SS would be included in the cut, but the wording indicated that all would be included. Those of us who live to see 2031 will see. BTW I think that's 3 to 5 years earlier than previous projections.
 
OneEyedDiva said:
I have posted here several times over the years about the likelihood of a cut in benefits due to the depletion of funds and warned members to start preparing! The first time I was pooh-poohed. On no, the government wouldn't let that happen. Also some disputed that seniors already getting SS would be included in the cut, but the wording indicated that all would be included. Those of us who live to see 2031 will see. BTW I think that's 3 to 5 years earlier than previous projections.
Click to expand...
I disagree that there's a likelihood. Yes, it's a possible worst-case scenario if Congress doesn't arrange additional SS funding, but that's something they have always done during previous SS scares.

Given the nature of politicians, I'm confident they will solve this problem, if only because it's in their best interests to do so. It would be disastrous to the political party who allows SS to falter and they know it.

Unfortunately, the financial situations of most Americans over 65 are pretty well cast in cement. Cut SS and a whole lot of seniors on SF and throughout the country will be - to use a term from my teens - screwed, blued and tattooed. Many are already living on the financial edge.

All that said, your caution is appreciated. It is always wise to hope for the best while planning for the worst.
 

Back
Top