Coffee prices rising, 28% in August alone-
"As of August 2025, the United States has imposed significant tariffs on coffee imports, marking a major shift in trade policy that is reshaping the global coffee supply chain. These tariffs, which began in April 2025 with an initial 10% rate on most coffee imports, have since escalated, particularly for key producing nations.
Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer and a major supplier of coffee consumed in the U.S., now faces a 50% tariff on its exports to the United States. This steep increase has caused turmoil in the coffee market, with American importers halting new contracts and reviewing existing ones. The move has driven up futures prices for arabica coffee on the New York market, which saw a 23% rise in 2025 and a 28% increase in August alone. However, the premium for Brazilian-specific coffee has declined due to reduced demand, illustrating the immediate economic pressure on Brazilian exporters.
Other major coffee-producing countries are also affected. India faces a 25% tariff, Vietnam a 20% tariff, and Indonesia a 19% tariff. Nicaragua is subject to an 18% rate, while several Central and East African nations, including Colombia, Guatemala, and Ethiopia, face a 10% tariff. Notably, Mexican coffee that qualifies under the USMCA trade agreement remains exempt from tariffs, making it a more competitive option for U.S. importers.
These tariffs function as a tax on U.S. businesses rather than foreign producers, with the costs paid by American importers at customs and ultimately passed down to roasters, retailers, and consumers. For example, a container of Brazilian coffee valued at $150,000 would incur an additional $75,000 in tariffs. Importers like Royal Coffee and Genuine Origin emphasize that they do not profit from tariffs but must adjust prices to cover these mandatory costs.
The broader impact includes rising prices for consumers, with some roasters warning of potential price increases of up to 50% once existing inventories are depleted. Blends relying on high-tariff coffees may need reformulation, and market volatility is expected to persist due to the interplay of tariffs, weather disruptions, and shifting global demand. Speculators in the futures market are also driving prices higher, anticipating that roasters will need to secure supplies before year-end.
Industry leaders argue that coffee should be exempt from tariffs, noting that the U.S. cannot produce coffee domestically at scale and that the tariffs harm small businesses, farmers abroad, and consumers. Efforts are underway to lobby Congress for exemptions, with some suggesting that bipartisan legislative action may be necessary to reclaim tariff authority from the executive branch."
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