The Four Possible Timelines for Life Returning to Normal......I posted this article end of March 2020 by an editor of Atlantic Magazine....here's a look back at the prediction for now....
TIMELINE THREE: FOUR TO 12 MONTHS
One big unresolved question about COVID-19 is whether, like the flu, its spread will slow substantially during the summer. Researchers have a few theories for why summer is a season unfriendly to the flu—it could be that higher temperatures and increased UV radiation are inhospitable to some viruses, and/or that most schools are out of session, depriving viruses of a crucial breeding ground. But whether either of those theories applies to the coronavirus is not yet known.
Noymer guesses that we’ll find out if COVID-19 is seasonal sometime in the next two to three months, and here is where Timeline Three splits in two: In one possible universe, the virus recedes in the summer. In the other, it doesn’t. In both, at least some of the social distancing measures now in place continue into the second half of the year.
In the first universe, Noymer said, summer will be a bit more fun than spring was, at least in the Northern Hemisphere. Outdoor activities in small groups would probably be fine. Maybe bars and restaurants would reopen. But large gatherings would likely be “No Lollapalooza, no Major League Baseball, no crowded beaches,” Noymer guesses.
Hanage thinks that sports leagues might resume in the summer but without crowds, and that TV shows might forgo studio audiences. Meanwhile, stores might cap the number of shoppers allowed in at once. “I really don’t think that large crowds are going to be a thing for quite some time,” he said. But the smaller-scale units of American life might be phased back in.
It might even be (relatively) safe to travel to see loved ones. “Once it’s everywhere, and you are as likely to get infected in your local convenience store as anywhere, travel restrictions make very little sense,” Hanage said. “That said, there would need to be some responsible measures to help people not get too crowded in the airports.”
The downside of this closer-to-normal summer is that a resurgence of the disease in six months or so is a strong possibility (though not guaranteed). This “fall wave” of infections might arrive in September or October, reintroducing the need for social distancing. That social distancing might be on par with what’s happening now, or it might be eased a bit: By then, many people could have developed immunity, and could theoretically go out without risking infection. And we’ll know more about the virus too. If we’ve learned by the fall that children don’t spread it, schools might even reopen.
Also, the country would hopefully be in a better position to absorb another wave of infections. The summer would be a good time to produce more ventilators, hospital beds, and the protective equipment that health-care workers wear to prevent infection. “If we get seasonality, saving our bacon in the short term … we need to use the summer lull to steel our response” in the fall, Noymer said. With the proper steeling, social distancing might be able to be scaled back further.
In the second possible universe, we don’t get a summer reprieve. The current oncoming spike in cases would, hopefully, subside as a result of isolation measures taken now, but the risk of a resurgence would remain high in the warmer months. If the number of cases isn’t falling significantly by early to mid-June, Noymer said, that’s how we’d probably know the virus isn’t seasonal.
At that point, social-distancing measures could be modified according to the situation. If another onslaught of infections appears to be approaching, Americans could be stuck where they are now. But if there’s good enough data indicating that hospitals shouldn’t be overwhelmed, social distancing could be scaled back.
[Read: What could happen if the coronavirus closed schools for days, weeks, or even months]
“Once the [current] wave is dealt with, then some things might relax—a little,” Hanage said. More out-of-the-house working and socializing might take place, but this would still be a world with rigorous hand-washing, well-smothered sneezing, and generous amounts of hand sanitizer (and suspicion of anyone who disregards these public-health norms). In all likelihood, people who can work remotely or order food via delivery would still do so instead of leaving the house.
The fall could introduce some chaos, regardless of the virus’s seasonality. “There’s the small matter of an election, which is a potentially huge superspreading event,” Hanage noted. (He also worries that social-media rumors of, say, people coughing near a certain polling place could cause turnout there to plummet.) And of course, the flu will return around the time of the election too, making it hard to tell, without a test, if any given person has COVID-19 or the flu—an ambiguity that isn’t as onerous now, during the tail end of flu season. The election and the flu are reminders that all of the things that happen under normal circumstances—including natural disasters (summer and fall are hurricane and wildfire season too, don’t forget)—won’t necessarily be put on hold during this highly abnormal time.
(He's pretty much on target with his prediction, I would say)
