Much Higher Interest Rates for Much, Much Longer

dilettante

Well-known Member
Location
Michigan
This guy isn't as accurate as he once was in his predictions, but this is mostly observation rather than analysis.


Are we preparing for increasing interest rates or betting that they'll soon fall?
 

This guy isn't as accurate as he once was in his predictions, but this is mostly observation rather than analysis.


Are we preparing for increasing interest rates or betting that they'll soon fall?
I did not view the video since I don’t like to follow naked or near naked links.

My own thoughts are that given that the Federal government is currently running deficits of about two trillion dollars a year, it’s not surprising that inflation is not down to 2%. I would not be surprised to see it increase a bit. We might even see stagflation. YUK!
 
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Embedded media links aren't "naked" or anywhere near. And SeniorForums verifies the targets given and limits them to an approved list of domains anyway.


The point made is that most of the inflation so far is fallout from COVID, and that has been slowly falling for 2 years. Of course there are other factors, like California's outsize control of the economy along with its absurd foot-dragging on putting COVID behind it.

Much of the rest is Wall Street's wishes for enhanced profiteering vs. the Fed and the real economy. And then you have demographic decline post Baby Boom impacting economic activity. Then there are the Baby Boom retirements, which alters how their capital is deployed.


Or you could watch the video then respond to the points made there.
 

Embedded media links aren't "naked" or anywhere near. And SeniorForums verifies the targets given and limits them to an approved list of domains anyway.


The point made is that most of the inflation so far is fallout from COVID, and that has been slowly falling for 2 years. Of course there are other factors, like California's outsize control of the economy along with its absurd foot-dragging on putting COVID behind it.

Much of the rest is Wall Street's wishes for enhanced profiteering vs. the Fed and the real economy. And then you have demographic decline post Baby Boom impacting economic activity. Then there are the Baby Boom retirements, which alters how their capital is deployed.


Or you could watch the video then respond to the points made there.
You hit all the main points. I don't always agree w/Zeihan, but most of us knew we'd eventually be paying for the fed's recklessness during the pandemic. I got 3 bank deposits I didn't ask for, each well over a thousand bucks..."covid relief" deposits. And I didn't get covid, didn't lose a job over covid, wasn't effected by covid. And you can't return that money. But I knew I'd be paying it back one way or another.
 
You hit all the main points. I don't always agree w/Zeihan, but most of us knew we'd eventually be paying for the fed's recklessness during the pandemic. I got 3 bank deposits I didn't ask for, each well over a thousand bucks..."covid relief" deposits. And I didn't get covid, didn't lose a job over covid, wasn't effected by covid. And you can't return that money. But I knew I'd be paying it back one way or another.
Do you recall who proudly signed those checks with his big huge signature, reminding you of his "generosity?" Don't you dare forget, and make sure EVERYONE knows who it was.
 
Do you recall who proudly signed those checks with his big huge signature, reminding you of his "generosity?" Don't you dare forget, and make sure EVERYONE knows who it was.
Yep, it was $1,400 in March of 2021, with the passage of the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, while proclaiming the covid outbreak was nearing an end. Thus a period of transitory inflation began, until the rest of the world caught up, which then became global inflation.

As for the video, the supply chain was a factor, but throwing money into American pockets, would increase expectations of those same Amerians spending that money quickly. Retailers can't make money with empty shelves, so restock... whatever the cost. Supply and demand at work.

I would also dispute the idea of baby boomers and savings. That was once a driving force, but the implementation of paying interest on both required and excess reserves in 2008, plue QE... played a big part in the current problem, of which the FED is unable to bring back into control, with current QT, without gutting the ON RRP. IMHO

Bottom line... the financial sector (banking) may not be as strong as one might think.
 
The first payments, through direct deposit and paper checks with some later payments made by EIP 2 Cards, were issued between 29 December 2020 and 15 January 2021.

And OOPS, can't say another word, sorry, getting too "hot!" :)
 
Here interest rates have gone up so high that people can’t afford their mortgage. While the house prices were good , people bought, now their renewal rates are going to be far too high.
 
The current rates that are averaging between 7 and 8% are not all that high from a historical perpective. It's just that the Fed kept intrest rates artificially low for so long that people got used to it. Those of us that are old enough can remember back in the late 70's when mortgage rates hit 18% and both inflation and unemployment were in the double digits.
 
Not much talk about who is affected most by higher interest rates. Nor about credit card debt or the deficit.
If I was in my 50's I'd be concerned, not only for "IMO" the questionable financial direction of America but world wide reduction of resources.
 
The first payments, through direct deposit and paper checks with some later payments made by EIP 2 Cards, were issued between 29 December 2020 and 15 January 2021.

And OOPS, can't say another word, sorry, getting too "hot!" :)
Don't forget the $1,200 rebate in early 2020, around June.

So there were 3 rounds, with the result in monthly rate of inflation...
monthy rate of inflation.jpg

And the annual...
annual rate of inflation.jpg

So the question remains... what transpired in March 2021 to trigger the round of inflation? It was more than just stimulus checks, as indicated by little movement from 1st two.
 
Corporate Greed or the Revolution of the 1%
It might be popular to blame corporate greed, and certainly would be a factor, however the data indicates a massive surge in consumer spending in March, 2021.
advance monthly retail sales.jpg
NOTE: the orange dots represent spending on goods adjusted for inflation, with the blue dots being nominal dollars.
The U.S. consumer is much to blame for bidding up prices of goods. In fact, they pushed up shipping costs, which started affecting all countries. Of course, Russia messing with natgas supplies and the invasion of Ukraine were factors as well, but came later in the inflation runup.
 
It interests me so much that while screaming and complaining about cost, Americans are buying stuff, lots of stuff, all the time. Yet they are complaining they can't get more, more, more. Even our poorest poor have expensive cell phones, TVs, Ipad, you name it. There was a time people knew they might have to actually save up for stuff out of their league. We think we can spend what the 1% spend, that we somehow all "deserve" it.

My mom taught me to "save for the rainy day." Not that I always listen, but I understand her POV.

PS. "out of their league"
Yes, some things actually are
Just because we see something doesn't mean it can belong to us, and so what if it isn't?
 
It interests me so much that while screaming and complaining about cost, Americans are buying stuff, lots of stuff, all the time. Yet they are complaining they can't get more, more, more. Even our poorest poor have expensive cell phones, TVs, Ipad, you name it. There was a time people knew they might have to actually save up for stuff out of their league. We think we can spend what the 1% spend, that we somehow all "deserve" it.
How much credit card debt do Americans have?

Americans’ total credit card balance is $1.129 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the latest consumer debt data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That’s up from a record $1.079 trillion in the third quarter of 2023, leaving the balance the highest since the New York Fed began tracking in 1999.
This marks the third consecutive quarter in which Americans’ credit card balances topped $1 trillion, which had never happened before the second quarter of 2023. It also continues a trend of fourth-quarter credit card debt increases. Since this quarterly report began in 1999, credit card debt has fallen during the fourth quarter of a year just twice — in 2009 and 2010 as the nation wrestled with the impact of the Great Recession.

With this latest increase, credit card balances have risen by $273 billion since the fourth quarter of 2021. Americans’ credit card debt is $202 billion higher than the record set in the fourth quarter of 2019, when balances stood at $927 billion. However, thanks to record interest rates, stubborn inflation and myriad other economic factors, credit card balances are likely only going to climb, at least in the near future.

These record balances are light years above the $478 billion seen more than 20 years ago in the first quarter of 1999.

2024 Credit Card Debt Statistics | LendingTree

Maybe credit card spending is thought to be the key to getting into appearing to be in the league.
 
How much credit card debt do Americans have?

Americans’ total credit card balance is $1.129 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the latest consumer debt data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That’s up from a record $1.079 trillion in the third quarter of 2023, leaving the balance the highest since the New York Fed began tracking in 1999.
This marks the third consecutive quarter in which Americans’ credit card balances topped $1 trillion, which had never happened before the second quarter of 2023. It also continues a trend of fourth-quarter credit card debt increases. Since this quarterly report began in 1999, credit card debt has fallen during the fourth quarter of a year just twice — in 2009 and 2010 as the nation wrestled with the impact of the Great Recession.

With this latest increase, credit card balances have risen by $273 billion since the fourth quarter of 2021. Americans’ credit card debt is $202 billion higher than the record set in the fourth quarter of 2019, when balances stood at $927 billion. However, thanks to record interest rates, stubborn inflation and myriad other economic factors, credit card balances are likely only going to climb, at least in the near future.

These record balances are light years above the $478 billion seen more than 20 years ago in the first quarter of 1999.

2024 Credit Card Debt Statistics | LendingTree

Maybe credit card spending is thought to be the key to getting into appearing to be in the league.
I think in terms on current dollar v inflation adjusted. That $1.129T in current dollars is equivalent to $912B in 4th quarter 2019 dollars. Not really a good thing, but not end of the world.

The reality being... we are not reducing debt. The worrying trend, is the uptick of home refinancing, due to inflated house values... even though interest rates have risen.

Just like any other addiction, there is a refusal to acknowledge the "addiction to debt" as a problem. That's my 2¢ on the matter.
 
The current rates that are averaging between 7 and 8% are not all that high from a historical perpective. It's just that the Fed kept intrest rates artificially low for so long that people got used to it. Those of us that are old enough can remember back in the late 70's when mortgage rates hit 18% and both inflation and unemployment were in the double digits.
True that. Even into the mid 80's, my mortgage fixed rate was 13% and my neighbors all had adjustable rates and wondered how come mine was so low. o_O Low??? this country/city boy didn't think so.
 
Think the real issue with higher interest rates is not so much the interest rate but the skyrocketed price of the houses. Lets face it, most people can't afford them and its hurting the people that want to move "up" also. They aren't vacating the 1st home so those who want to buy can.

We'll see if the Fed Put comes back - lots of talk about it. So many regular joes have their 401's and IRA's in the market it could help them. Who wants to get close to retirement age and have the market tank on you?
 
The current rates that are averaging between 7 and 8% are not all that high from a historical perpective. It's just that the Fed kept intrest rates artificially low for so long that people got used to it. Those of us that are old enough can remember back in the late 70's when mortgage rates hit 18% and both inflation and unemployment were in the double digits.
Yep, those were hard lean times. Younger people look at me in disbelief when I tell them about how tough it was.
 
Think the real issue with higher interest rates is not so much the interest rate but the skyrocketed price of the houses. Lets face it, most people can't afford them and its hurting the people that want to move "up" also. They aren't vacating the 1st home so those who want to buy can.
That's a valid point, but the topic of interest rates Zeihan talked about above was not consumer credit but business credit.

That has impact on hiring, upkeep, modernization, expansion, or even the viability of existing business locations altogether. Locations operating near the margin can become too expensive, leading to closures. After closures come long-term vacancies and then a general decline in communities. Local people lose the product and service offerings and that can be quite a hit to communities of people who can't or won't drive or drive longer distances.
 
So many regular joes have their 401's and IRA's in the market it could help them. Who wants to get close to retirement age and have the market tank on you?
The issue in the video is that the large bulge of population has or is retiring now. That means rebalancing their investment funds more conservatively and drawing those down into cash to invest very conservatively into CDs or Savings Accounts and living off it.

The scarcity developing from it is a reason why interest rates will stay high. That's the cheap money slipping out of Wall Street's fingers as well as commercial borrowers.
 
and where do the homeless on our streets and cities fit into this picture or should I just go and start another thread?
Maybe another thread would be a good idea. You could begin by posting verifiable factual info on how high interest rates are impacting homeless.
 
and where do the homeless on our streets and cities fit into this picture or should I just go and start another thread?
That's an important topic well deserving of its own thread. Exploring the impacts of consumer credit interest rates on homelessness should be interesting and we could probably learn something. But even commercial credit can figure in. Business closures and vacancies probably impact the homeless in terms of food options or even street "housing" in big cities when steam usage drops radically.
 


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