Coronavirus

Grampa Don said:
Here is a link to a BBC article on false rumors about the the new virus. There is a lot of BS out there.

Don
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Thanks for the information Grampa Don, this needs to be approached with a steady hand (mind).
 

Even people who ought to know better are sensationalizing.

This guy graduated from The Johns Hopkins University with Honors in Public Health and Phi Beta Kappa. He then completed his dual doctorate in epidemiology and doctorate in nutrition, as the youngest graduate to earn double-PhDs at age 23 from Harvard.

When he posted the drama tweet, the official Ro had been downgraded to 2.5.


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I see this new Corona virus stuff as typical alarmist journalism to draw in viewers/listeners. From what I've read, the fatality rate is around 2%. If the world lost one hundred sixty million people, I doubt we'd hardly notice, as one hundred and thirty million are born, yearly. Yes, there's the normal death rate to factor in, I know. Even so, I suspect this virus news will fade into the background as the next big news thing makes the scene. Meanwhile, I'm wearing my mask, gloves and goggles when I need an item at my local Asian market, no joke. On my last visit, I wasn't alone, in that.

FYI: Flu kills around a half million people a year, worldwide. US fatality rates are hard to pin down. Different articles have different stats. The clearest one I found showed a fatality rate of around 10%, but that was only for those who were hospitalized with the flu.

Be careful, but don't panic. Wash your hands with alcohol and then soap and water, avoid large crowds, don't touch your face, eat a balanced diet, exercise, get seven hours of sleep per twenty four hours, cancel that Chinese vacation.
 
strange how the vast majority of chinese are intelligent -
few years ago they had a very dangerous flu virus broke out -officials seem to think it came from thee live food market ?
i cannot fathom out why it still goes on ' you name it they sell it /

there is no health and safety out there ' animals that been caged and hens 'can carry no end of virus's
many a food store take-away have been shut down due to infestation of vermin in the UK.

but dont think will get the truth from over there what ever caused it - and who is to say it never came from their
labs .......
 
treeguy64 said:
... From what I've read, the fatality rate is around 2%.
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Based on numbers coming from a communist country. I'm reserving judgement. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

I don't believe videos showing a foggy day claiming it's due to Wuhan's crematoriums working 24/7 because residents report there's lots of fog this time of year. But I also do not believe a Communist government in a culture that "saves face" even when they have freedom is reporting accurately.
 
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Gardenlover said:
Coronavirus: 6,000 tourists in lockdown on Italian cruise ship
Ship held in quarantine over suspected case of the deadly virus, after doctors tend to woman from Macau running a fever.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...down-italian-cruise-ship-200130120822687.html

Never been a "big" fan of cruise ships. This is one reason why.
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Me, neither. You can't exactly leave the ship....not with the water so cold.
And the same goes for a plane. If you try to leave, it might get too cold & windy.
 
Stats site with frequent updates below. Keep in mind that most epidemiologists think China is very under-reported because of Communism, culture and also that it's gotten to the point that they're too overwhelmed caring for the sick to test properly. They are only including deaths in their statistics if there was a positive test.

You'll also notice no African countries reporting cases; only two nations on the continent currently have the capacity to test. The ability to test is also limited in India, most of the Middle East and some Central and South American countries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
 
retiredtraveler said:
400+ dead from virus. 10,000 dead this season, just in U.S. from flu. Almost 20,000 dead from last flu season. No need to ask the question.
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I imagine the CDC is in a bit of a quandary trying to figure out how to report deaths from 2019nCoV if we start losing people here. The CDC inflates flu death statistics by lumping deaths due to pneumonia in with flu (P&I if you're looking at stats on their website) even though pneumonia is caused by a lot of other things such as chemical inhalation, emphysema, aspiration, stomach acid producing drugs, other viruses besides the flu, various bacteria and on and on...

Since 2019nCoV causes death by pneumonia, they're going to have create an entirely new reporting system for those. Or at least they should, but since what they're reporting now is so off base, 2019nCoV deaths may be misreported in the P&I "flu deaths" catch-all junk pile.

​
From the British Medical Journal: Are US flu deaths more PR than science?​
​
US data on influenza deaths are a mess. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) acknowledges a difference between flu death and flu associated death yet uses the terms interchangeably. Additionally, there are significant statistical incompatibilities between official estimates and national vital statistics data. Compounding these problems is a marketing of fear—a CDC communications strategy in which medical experts “predict dire outcomes” during flu seasons.​
​
The CDC website states what has become commonly accepted and widely reported in the lay and scientific press: annually “about 36 000 [Americans] die from flu” and “influenza/pneumonia” is the seventh leading cause of death in the United States (www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/lcod.htm). But why are flu and pneumonia bundled together? Is the relationship so strong or unique to warrant characterising them as a single cause of death?​
 
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AnnieA said:
".....I imagine the CDC is in a bit of a quandary trying to figure out how to report deaths from 2019nCoV if we start losing people here. The CDC inflates flu death statistics by lumping deaths due to pneumonia in with flu (P&I if you're looking at stats on their website) even though pneumonia is caused by a lot of other things such as chemical inhalation, emphysema, aspiration, stomach acid producing drugs, other viruses besides the flu, various bacteria and on and on.... But why are flu and pneumonia bundled together? Is the relationship so strong or unique to warrant characterising them as a single cause of death?...".
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Thanks for posting this. I had no idea about flu reporting. It would still appear that even if flu 'deaths' are inflated by at least a factor of 10, I would still be far more concerned about getting flu, and/or pneumonia, than the new virus. I would assume you know your history and know about the flu pandemic during WWI.
 
retiredtraveler said:
Thanks for posting this. I had no idea about flu reporting. It would still appear that even if flu 'deaths' are inflated by at least a factor of 10, I would still be far more concerned about getting flu, and/or pneumonia, than the new virus. I would assume you know your history and know about the flu pandemic during WWI.
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It's too early to know how concerned we need to be since the ground zero for 2019nCoV was either tail-end of Nov or early Dec 2019. It's sickened/killed a lot of people in just two months. And there are numerous case reports of multi-organ failure coming out of China that's very rare with our usual seasonal respiratory bugs. We'll know more about how concerned we should be by the end of this month. Especially once we start getting reliable numbers on contagion stats, testing accuracy, mortality rates from first world countries.

It's a badass bug. No nation--esp China--wrecks their economy over a virus unless they're super scared. Our US evacuees are under federal mandatory quarantine which last happened 50 years ago. Four US military bases are preparing a total of 1000 quarantine beds ...dunno when that last happened. Australia and Spain have put their evacuees under quarantine on islands!!!

Like I said, it's so new that it'll be another month or so before we know how bad it's going to get in nations with strong healthcare infrastructure and accurate reporting.
 
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And now...there is a cruise ship full of passengers stuck in a Japanese harbor...and the passengers are being told to stay in their cabins for the next two weeks. That would almost be like being stuck in a prison cell. It appears that the best way to avoid this illness is to avoid being around crowds of people....and a cruise ship would seem, to me, to be the worst environment for the spread of a contagious disease.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-ship-outbreak-084606816.html
 
AnnieA said:
"..... We'll know more about how concerned we should be by the end of this month. Especially once we start getting reliable numbers on contagion stats, testing accuracy, mortality rates from first world countries.....".
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I assume (?) you believe that we will not be getting accurate numbers from China.
 
AnnieA said:
Stats site with frequent updates below. Keep in mind that most epidemiologists think China is very under-reported because of Communism, culture and also that it's gotten to the point that they're too overwhelmed caring for the sick to test properly. They are only including deaths in their statistics if there was a positive test.

You'll also notice no African countries reporting cases; only two nations on the continent currently have the capacity to test. The ability to test is also limited in India, most of the Middle East and some Central and South American countries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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retiredtraveler said:
I assume (?) you believe that we will not be getting accurate numbers from China.
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Reposting from above. Even if they were being honest at the first which many epidemiologists doubt, they've lost control of stats now. They're too overwhelmed caring for the ill to keep up with testing, and they're only counting positive tests in their stats.
 
Chart of the only people CDC is testing for currently. Note the second column. No tertiary contacts. And what if someone came in contact with a person who tested positive and doesn't know it? There are false negatives in the early days, and there are case studies showing communicability before symptoms develop. I've been critical of China's numbers in above posts, but after learning this, who the heck knows how many people actually have it in the US with these limitations.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201.../coronavirus/2019-ncov/clinical-criteria.html

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