1St Qtr. Was Horrible 2nd Could Be Worse

fmdog44

fmdog44

Well-known Member
Location
Houston, Texas
The general consensus seems to be leaning for a bad and I mean worse quarter than the first quarter. I'm getting those opinions from MSNBC and Bloomberg channels, etc.
 

"Could be - really?" Thanks for the encouraging post, that no one could have possibly saw coming on their own. šŸ˜¤

Rather than beat us down, help us build what is left of the future.
 
Gardenlover said:
"Could be - really?" Thanks for the encouraging post, that no one could have possibly saw coming on their own. šŸ˜¤

Rather than beat us down, help us build what is left of the future.
Click to expand...
Just repeating what al the experts are saying. If you choose to live in a fantasy world with your money good for you. Checked you first quarter statements yet?!
 
main street and wall street usually have a pretty strong disconnect ...

markets trade on greed , fear and perception off in the future ... what we all see and feel is usually different from markets . markets start recoveries long before we see any changes in main street
 
Unemployment numbers released this morning show 6.6 million newly unemployed this past week....double the number of 3.3 million reported last week. Predictions for coming weeks look even worse....with some saying that the total increase in the unemployed, as a result of this virus, could reach numbers not seen since 1930. This will certainly have a huge, and lasting effect on the overall economy.

Predictions for the near future are largely a "guess" because no one knows just how long it will be before this virus levels off, and begins to decline....and any lasting treatments/cures are probably still months away.

We are truly in "uncharted waters".
 
fmdog44 said:
Just repeating what al the experts are saying. If you choose to live in a fantasy world with your money good for you. Checked you first quarter statements yet?!
Click to expand...
Sometimes it's helpful to step into a fantasy world rather than go mad in the real world. Sorry if my post angered you, as I try to live in peace with everyone. At times I need a "kill switch" much like the stock market to keep from acquiring too many looses as this virus appears to be the great equalizer, I fear it will be a cruel task master long after I'm gone.
 
Last edited:
mathjak107 said:
of course we are down .... but markets see things very differently .... todays unemployment report was horrible , the worst in decades ... as of now markets are up ........markets and main street dont coincide more often then not
Click to expand...
Bottom line no one appears thrilled about the coming second quarter. Getting the unemployed to be employed may take longer than we would like.
 
fmdog44 said:
Bottom line no one appears thrilled about the coming second quarter. Getting the unemployed to be employed may take longer than we would like.
Click to expand...
it is going to be slow coming back ... already here in nyc where we are the epee center you see people already saying even when they get the all clear to go out we are not jumping to go to restaurants , concerts , venues with people , etc .... everyone is very distrusting... i have a concert in june scheduled and i am hoping they cancel it
 
mathjak107 said:
it is going to be slow coming back ... already here in nyc where we are the epee center you see people already saying even when they get the all clear to go out we are not jumping to go to restaurants , concerts , venues with people , etc .... everyone is very distrusting... i have a concert in june scheduled and i am hoping they cancel it
Click to expand...
I can certainly see where that might be the prevailing feeling where you are mathjak...we can all only hope that things will get back to a "normal lifestyle" for people everywhere. Life does and will go on. I know our hearts are with those that are suffering during this unbelievable "plague of the century" time. Lets hope your grand kids will be able to tell their grand kids about it.
 
Often, the big investors, for example, those that run the mutual funds, Bill Miller would be a good example, will often have already figured in the bad earnings reports that are expected. It's no secret that earnings will not be good, except maybe for grocery stores and medical supply companies.
 
Wall Street and Main Street donā€™t see the same things .....Wall Street is about beating earning expectations...that can be done through cost cutting to a point .

layoffs and pay cuts are bad for Main Street but to Wall Street the cost cutting adds to the bottom line ...it is easier to beat earning estimates when the bar is lower ...earnings donā€™t have to be good , they just need to be less bad
 
fmdog44 said:
....Getting the unemployed to be employed may take longer than we would like.
Click to expand...

Agree. So do others:
Robots Welcome to Take Over, as Pandemic Accelerates Automation
NY Times 10Apr2020
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/business/coronavirus-workplace-automation.html

(excerpt)
ā€œPeople become more expensive as companiesā€™ revenues decline,ā€ he said.

A new wave of automation could also mean that when companies start hiring again, they do so in smaller numbers. ā€œThis may be one of those situations when automation does substantially depress rehiring,ā€ Mr. Muro said. ā€œYou may see fewer workers when the recovery does come.ā€
 
There are some good "hints" on where the economy is heading, just by watching some of the TV commercials. I notice a Surge in automobile repair "insurance" ads in the past couple of weeks.....ads which purport to cover excessive auto repair bills....engine, transmission, etc.

This, along with other news about auto sales, makes me think that the next major Industry decline will be occurring in new car sales. Dealerships are seeing little or no traffic, and their lots are filling up with unsold cars. Even rental car agencies are having trouble finding places to park their thousands of unused vehicles as the travel industry continues to decline.

In these uncertain times, buying a new car, or even a certified used car, is going to take a back seat to other far more necessary expenses, for many people, if they can keep their current vehicles going with a minor/moderate amount of money...rather than forking over 10's of thousands for a new, or newer vehicle.

I can see a lot of dealerships closing, and auto plants shutting down...which will add substantially to the unemployment numbers. Even GM has recently announced they are converting some assembly facilities over to producing Ventilators, instead of cars....GM probably visualizes huge numbers of new cars sitting unsold.
 
Don M. said:
There are some good "hints" on where the economy is heading, just by watching some of the TV commercials. I notice a Surge in automobile repair "insurance" ads in the past couple of weeks.....ads which purport to cover excessive auto repair bills....engine, transmission, etc.

This, along with other news about auto sales, makes me think that the next major Industry decline will be occurring in new car sales. Dealerships are seeing little or no traffic, and their lots are filling up with unsold cars. Even rental car agencies are having trouble finding places to park their thousands of unused vehicles as the travel industry continues to decline.

In these uncertain times, buying a new car, or even a certified used car, is going to take a back seat to other far more necessary expenses, for many people, if they can keep their current vehicles going with a minor/moderate amount of money...rather than forking over 10's of thousands for a new, or newer vehicle.

I can see a lot of dealerships closing, and auto plants shutting down...which will add substantially to the unemployment numbers. Even GM has recently announced they are converting some assembly facilities over to producing Ventilators, instead of cars....GM probably visualizes huge numbers of new cars sitting unsold.
Click to expand...
much is only going to be delayed and pent up demand will create lots of business .

my son owns a leasing company ... all leases coming up are being extended out but eventually everyone will be replaced with a new car .

people have refunds given as credits for future trips so hotels n airlines will perk up .... lots of things are only being delayed as well as lots of products need replenshment
 
We and the world are forever changed. Even more so than 911. This threat is not going away and until it is "controlled" it will remain a game changer. Crowds and shoulder-to-shoulder situations will be extinct until vaccines are created and then distributed and that will take at best estimates two years. Landlords with no commercial renters, airlines, sit down restaurants, farmers, food processors, banks bailing out small businesses by the thousands, movie theaters, shopping malls, night clubs, sports, etc. are just a few of areas headed for trouble. This is going to take some very smart people to figure this quagmire out and if they screw it up who knows how bad it will be.
 
mathjak107 said:
much is only going to be delayed and pent up demand will create lots of business .
my son owns a leasing company ... all leases coming up are being extended out but eventually everyone will be replaced with a new car .
people have refunds given as credits for future trips so hotels n airlines will perk up .... lots of things are only being delayed as well as lots of products need replenshment
Click to expand...

True....the longer some of these purchases and expenditures are delayed, the more the demand will go up....If/When this health crisis is resolved. THAT is the big question mark, as there seems to be NO resolution to this virus in the near future. A lot of business are offering "delays" etc., of 2 or 3 months on payments, etc., but the health care professionals are saying that a resolution of this illness is probably well over a year away, if not longer. How long can some of these businesses and industries "mark time"' before they are severely impacted????

I notice that the stock markets continue to swing quite wildly, as the latest earnings reports begin to filter in. I will be surprised if the coming economic news doesn't cause Wall Street to retest recent lows. I've been watching the CBOE Vix numbers fairly closely, and they seem to indicate no real confidence in any near term improvements.
 
fmdog44 said:
We and the world are forever changed. Even more so than 911. This threat is not going away and until it is "controlled" it will remain a game changer. Crowds and shoulder-to-shoulder situations will be extinct until vaccines are created and then distributed and that will take at best estimates two years. Landlords with no commercial renters, airlines, sit down restaurants, farmers, food processors, banks bailing out small businesses by the thousands, movie theaters, shopping malls, night clubs, sports, etc. are just a few of areas headed for trouble. This is going to take some very smart people to figure this quagmire out and if they screw it up who knows how bad it will be.
Click to expand...
the big problems are the business's where people don't delay ... movie theaters , amc here is going to file bankruptcy , restaurants , concerts ,bars , clubs , etc ... all the things that are just in the moment are going to be hit hard ...

everything else will just have pent up demand as people do it later ... even our vacations we are simply putting off .
 
fmdog44 said:
We and the world are forever changed. Even more so than 911. This threat is not going away and until it is "controlled" it will remain a game changer. Crowds and shoulder-to-shoulder situations will be extinct until vaccines are created and then distributed and that will take at best estimates two years. Landlords with no commercial renters, airlines, sit down restaurants, farmers, food processors, banks bailing out small businesses by the thousands, movie theaters, shopping malls, night clubs, sports, etc. are just a few of areas headed for trouble. This is going to take some very smart people to figure this quagmire out and if they screw it up who knows how bad it will be.
Click to expand...
:LOL: Don't worry, us smart people got it under control. :ROFLMAO:


Be nice now - I'm just joking around. :rolleyes:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top