Do You Think The Housing Bubble Will Burst Soon?

Liberty said:
Where in Florida was that Alligatorob?
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The town I grew up in (mostly) was Dunedin, we lived on Scotland street. That street is still nicely maintained brick and our old house still there looking much the same. Dunedin was the town still paying off the debts from the 20s. The old subdivision that never got finished was one in Tarpon Springs, right on Lake Tarpon, we lived there for a while.

The Tarpon Springs subdivision was planned as a glorious waterfront community, a brick boulevard complete with fountains and granite curbs got built to the lake, and other streets were laid out. The only houses that got built were on the lake, on a dirt street that never got paved. There were piles of street bricks and granite in the woods that were never used. When we lived there the fountains in the boulevard were overgrown and hard to see. I went back recently and found things much changed, all the lots have now been built on and the original brick boulevard remains, but the other streets were paved with blacktop. The old lake house we lived in is still there, but expanded and updated almost beyond recognition. The most notable change is that when we lived there this was relative high ground, a sand ridge to the lake, both sides were swamp and low lying ground. That low lying ground has now been drained and/or filled and multi-story condos built, kind of depressing.

It was a great place to grow up. Our family moved away in 67 and I made my first trip back to see things just 2 years ago. Amazing how much things changed in that time, it was hard to find much recognizable...
 

We stayed overnight in Dunedin on the way to the Ft. Myer's Beach condo we used to spend the month of January in for years. It is a nice "tightly populated" little town. Very unusual for Florida. Must have been a great place to grow up in. Loved the bike trails they have there now. Oh, the memories, huh!
 
Alligatorob said:
The town I grew up in (mostly) was Dunedin, we lived on Scotland street. That street is still nicely maintained brick and our old house still there looking much the same. Dunedin was the town still paying off the debts from the 20s. The old subdivision that never got finished was one in Tarpon Springs, right on Lake Tarpon, we lived there for a while.

The Tarpon Springs subdivision was planned as a glorious waterfront community, a brick boulevard complete with fountains and granite curbs got built to the lake, and other streets were laid out. The only houses that got built were on the lake, on a dirt street that never got paved. There were piles of street bricks and granite in the woods that were never used. When we lived there the fountains in the boulevard were overgrown and hard to see. I went back recently and found things much changed, all the lots have now been built on and the original brick boulevard remains, but the other streets were paved with blacktop. The old lake house we lived in is still there, but expanded and updated almost beyond recognition. The most notable change is that when we lived there this was relative high ground, a sand ridge to the lake, both sides were swamp and low lying ground. That low lying ground has now been drained and/or filled and multi-story condos built, kind of depressing.

It was a great place to grow up. Our family moved away in 67 and I made my first trip back to see things just 2 years ago. Amazing how much things changed in that time, it was hard to find much recognizable...
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I had the same problem a couple years ago. Hardly recognized the place I grew up. 😞
 

Liberty said:
Loved the bike trails they have there now
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Used to be train tracks, we took the train from Dunedin to St Pete several times on what is today a bike trail. It all seems so long ago now... Downtown Dunedin looks much the same superficially, most of the buildings are still there. But what used to be small hardware, clothing, or the like are now upscale restaurants, breweries, or things like yogurt shops. Could be worse I guess...

I agree the old part of Dunedin is still a "nicely populated" area. That is how a lot of Florida towns once looked, downtown Tarpon Springs and Clearwater were much the same, even Tampa and St Pete to some extent. Its the newer suburban sprawl that has drastically changed things...
 
Alligatorob said:
Used to be train tracks, we took the train from Dunedin to St Pete several times on what is today a bike trail. It all seems so long ago now... Downtown Dunedin looks much the same superficially, most of the buildings are still there. But what used to be small hardware, clothing, or the like are now upscale restaurants, breweries, or things like yogurt shops. Could be worse I guess...

I agree the old part of Dunedin is still a "nicely populated" area. That is how a lot of Florida towns once looked, downtown Tarpon Springs and Clearwater were much the same, even Tampa and St Pete to some extent. Its the newer suburban sprawl that has drastically changed things...
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Do you ever think about moving back? Have extended family that live In Utah and want to move to Ft. Walton Beach, Florida.
 
Liberty said:
Do you ever think about moving back?
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I would prefer living in Florida, but my wife is a native Utahan and the grandkids are here. I also like Utah, if it only had the Gulf of Mexico and less winter it would be great!!

I would not go back to Dunedin or Pinellas County though, far too developed and crowded for me. The last 25 years or so I lived in Florida was in Franklin County, Alligator Point, I like that area a lot better now. I find Ft. Walton something in-between. A very nice place, and less crowded than Pinellas, but still too crowded for me...
 
Alligatorob said:
I would prefer living in Florida, but my wife is a native Utahan and the grandkids are here. I also like Utah, if it only had the Gulf of Mexico and less winter it would be great!!

I would not go back to Dunedin or Pinellas County though, far too developed and crowded for me. The last 25 years or so I lived in Florida was in Franklin County, Alligator Point, I like that area a lot better now. I find Ft. Walton something in-between. A very nice place, and less crowded than Pinellas, but still too crowded for me...
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We used to have a LOT more snow. We had a Ford pinto decades ago. Snow would be up to the lower part of the windows and this was in SLC.
 
Alligatorob said:
I would prefer living in Florida, but my wife is a native Utahan and the grandkids are here. I also like Utah, if it only had the Gulf of Mexico and less winter it would be great!!

I would not go back to Dunedin or Pinellas County though, far too developed and crowded for me. The last 25 years or so I lived in Florida was in Franklin County, Alligator Point, I like that area a lot better now. I find Ft. Walton something in-between. A very nice place, and less crowded than Pinellas, but still too crowded for me...
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We came from Ohio and certainly wouldn't want to have to move back up north. Never ever missed the snow...lol. So know what you mean - privacy rules, also. Nice to have land. Nothing beats a nature surrounding warm weather climate.
 
Liberty said:
We came from Ohio and certainly wouldn't want to have to move back up north. Never ever missed the snow...lol. So know what you mean - privacy rules, also. Nice to have land. Nothing beats a nature surrounding warm weather climate.
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Ditto....Moved out of Illinois back in the 80's,never looked back!! Currently live on 4.5 acres 15 miles from the bigger town..
full
 
As someone looking to buy, I wish it would but I'm doubtful. My area has had increases due to fire lost homes also.

I never did it right. Bought a house in another town in my county in late 2001 when prices were going up. Then put it up for sale right when the crash started in 2008. That area was cheaper. I should have bought in this town. I could have afforded it. I was looking at condos then but everything was also selling in a second. I think about a loft style condo I looked at in probably 96 or 97 when prices were low but interest rates were high. I thought it was too much for me in size and affordability. I could have afforded it. I would have paid it off a long time ago.
 
Alligatorob said:
I understand, I am the master of buying high and selling low, LOL. For me predicting the real estate market is no better than the roulette wheel. I have bought and sold lots of houses, in the end I did make a net profit, but probably no greater than inflation...
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I think I’ve broken even
 
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Aneeda72 said:
Yes, but we have rented an apartment and decided not to buy anytime soon. Maybe after the bubble bursts and properties are much lower. About 7 years ago we tried to sell a house for 80,000 and no buyers. Today that house would sell for 350,000. Go figure.
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I hope it works out for you Aneeda72
 
Aneeda72 said:
Do you raise and sell dogs? I notice dog run and puppy shed. What kind of dogs?
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The wife bred Siberian Huskies,all gone now..
Liberty said:
Ken, looks great. If I posted an aerial view of this 12 acres all you would see was trees, a circular drive and a big house with a red roof...lol. Its not dense woods but looks that way from a plane view.
How long have you lived where you live now? We've lived here since 1985.
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Built here in 1998...
 
Aunt Bea said:
When interest rates go up the real estate market will cool and prices on existing homes will stabilize or drop. New construction will be out of reach for many.

IMO most people focus on the monthly payment they can qualify for and don’t really concern themselves with the value or cost of the property.

High interest rates translate into high payments and less home for the money.

Renting won’t be much different. If people can’t buy a home they will rent and those rents will go up as the demand for apartments increase.

IMO the only way to ‘win’ is to cash out and move to a cheaper part of the country.

Good luck!
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I agree with Aunt Bea.
I think the housing market will cool off a bit, but not a lot. To the detriment of human happiness, a lot of big corporations will likely continue purchasing single family houses as future rentals.

Two of my children bought their first homes within the last 18 months. (The third bought 10 years ago.)

They took out 30 or 40 year loans and will not pay them off early - with fixed mortgage interest rates in the 2-1/2% range, why would they? They looked at their monthly payments versus escalating rents and took the plunge. It's a different world than the 20% down, 13% interest rate that DH and I were dealing with when we first bought a home.
 
Aunt Bea said:
When interest rates go up the real estate market will cool and prices on existing homes will stabilize or drop. New construction will be out of reach for many.

IMO most people focus on the monthly payment they can qualify for and don’t really concern themselves with the value or cost of the property.

High interest rates translate into high payments and less home for the money.

Renting won’t be much different. If people can’t buy a home they will rent and those rents will go up as the demand for apartments increase.

IMO the only way to ‘win’ is to cash out and move to a cheaper part of the country.

Good luck!
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I totally agree but unfortunately, some people are unable for various reasons to move to a cheaper part of the country, family, espec. elderly parents maybe, that they can't leave (or convince to come with them), lack of jobs in the cheaper area (that'll support you anyway), etc. And unfortunately, people in that position are members of a large club; there are a lot of people (including yours truly) in this country who are stuck living in undesirable places but can't, and never will be able to, move. Just not feasible for too many people.
 
StarSong said:
I agree with Aunt Bea.
I think the housing market will cool off a bit, but not a lot. To the detriment of human happiness, a lot of big corporations will likely continue purchasing single family houses as future rentals.

Two of my children bought their first homes within the last 18 months. (The third bought 10 years ago.)

They took out 30 or 40 year loans and will not pay them off early - with fixed mortgage interest rates in the 2-1/2% range, why would they? They looked at their monthly payments versus escalating rents and took the plunge. It's a different world than the 20% down, 13% interest rate that DH and I were dealing with when we first bought a home.
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There is a 40 year housing loan? 😮
 
Aunt Bea said:
When interest rates go up the real estate market will cool and prices on existing homes will stabilize or drop. New construction will be out of reach for many.

IMO most people focus on the monthly payment they can qualify for and don’t really concern themselves with the value or cost of the property.

High interest rates translate into high payments and less home for the money.

Renting won’t be much different. If people can’t buy a home they will rent and those rents will go up as the demand for apartments increase.

IMO the only way to ‘win’ is to cash out and move to a cheaper part of the country.

Good luck!
Click to expand...
There is no seesaw effect between interest rates and home prices …..rates have to go way way high to see a direct effect .

2007 had real estate soaring at 6-7% mortgages .

real estate was soaring here in nyc in 1987 and I bought my first investment property . I was happy to get 8-1/4%.

real estate is effected mostly by the local economy , jobs and demand ..

in fact rising rates usually spur the market as those on the fence go we better buy now before we can afford even less house .

almost 40% of all deals lately are all cash so rates don’t even matter
 
mathjak107 said:
There is no seesaw effect between interest rates and home prices …..rates have to go way way high to see a direct effect .

2007 had real estate soaring at 6-7% mortgages .

real estate was soaring here in nyc in 1987 and I bought my first investment property . I was happy to get 8-1/4%.

real estate is effected mostly by the local economy , jobs and demand ..

in fact rising rates usually spur the market as those on the fence go we better buy now before we can afford even less house .

almost 40% of all deals lately are all cash so rates don’t even matter
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I disagree. Rates affect payment affordability for anyone who takes out a loan. If 40% of recent deals are all cash that means 60% need financing. When the combination of home price and interest rates are too high, buyers won't qualify for them.
 

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