A Plethora of November Inflation Data

[Harry Le Hermit]

The CPI was released this morning. 6.8% was within the expected range of 6.6% to 6.9%. With it came a lot of other indexes being released and I threw mine in due to inflated ego, I guess. So pick one you like or wait until near end of the month when all the others pop up.

Of course, this is all in the rear view mirror and the current $64,000 question (6,678, in 1958 dollars) is the direction going forward. With last December at a 260.474 reading and the current at 277.948, merely staying flat would make the next reading at 6.7%. Energy seems to be easing, but will it be enough to hold off increases in other areas? Smarter minds than me indicate 7.0% ~ 7.2%. A lot of that is base effect, as the month to month is slated to ease to 0.4%. For the history buffs, June, 1982 year over year inflation was reported at 7.1%. Were they really the "good ole days"?

Real Earnings were also released and showed a monthly drop, -0.4% or back to March, 2020 level.

 

[Knight]

The neighborhood Walmart manager has no sense of humor. The other day I bought 8 gallons of distilled water @$1.14 a gallon. The week before it was 88 cents a gallon. About 29.3 % increase in one week.

The store manager just happened to be walking by when I was loading the water into my cart. I stopped him & asked where the sign was. He looked puzzled & asked what sign?

I said well there usually is a sign claiming a new lower price. Why not put up a sign claiming a new much higher price? No smile no nothing.

 

[Harry Le Hermit]

The other day I bought 8 gallons of distilled water

So you're they guy that bought all of it back in the beginning and had me distilling my own. I learned my lesson!

 

[Don M.]

Inflation is unlikely to ease, anytime soon. With all the shortages at the stores, and ships lined up waiting to be unloaded, the basic rules of Supply and Demand are proving to be true. Fuel prices will probably stay quite high for quite some time, as our government tries to push the Green Agenda without being very prepared for an orderly transition. Over the past year, people have saved quite a bit of money they would usually spend on "entertainment", and they are spending that money on consumer goods....which is contributing to the overall price rises and shortages.

 

[Gaer]

Inflation is unlikely to ease, anytime soon. With all the shortages at the stores, and ships lined up waiting to be unloaded, the basic rules of Supply and Demand are proving to be true. Fuel prices will probably stay quite high for quite some time, as our government tries to push the Green Agenda without being very prepared for an orderly transition. Over the past year, people have saved quite a bit of money they would usually spend on "entertainment", and they are spending that money on consumer goods....which is contributing to the overall price rises and shortages.

Maybe 2025?

 

[Irwin]

Inflation is unlikely to ease, anytime soon. With all the shortages at the stores, and ships lined up waiting to be unloaded, the basic rules of Supply and Demand are proving to be true. Fuel prices will probably stay quite high for quite some time, as our government tries to push the Green Agenda without being very prepared for an orderly transition. Over the past year, people have saved quite a bit of money they would usually spend on "entertainment", and they are spending that money on consumer goods....which is contributing to the overall price rises and shortages.

Maybe you could elaborate on why you think we shouldn't transition to green energy. It seems like it's a good thing to do, and it's not like they're proposing a ban on fossil fuels. From what I've read, it's a gradual transition into more clean energy sources of energy such as solar and wind power, and EV charging stations which will give people more options. But gas powered cars aren't going away anytime soon. I'll bet in 50 years, there will still be gas stations, but they'll also have battery charging facilities.

 

[Don M.]

Maybe you could elaborate on why you think we shouldn't transition to green energy. It seems like it's a good thing to do, and it's not like they're proposing a ban on fossil fuels. From what I've read, it's a gradual transition into more clean energy sources of energy such as solar and wind power, and EV charging stations which will give people more options. But gas powered cars aren't going away anytime soon. I'll bet in 50 years, there will still be gas stations, but they'll also have battery charging facilities.

It appears that you misread my post. I did NOT say we shouldn't transition to Green energy.....BUT that our government policies with regard to this transition are contributing to inflation....particularly where fossil fuel availability is concerned. We are a Long way from being Green, but things like shutting down the Keystone pipeline, and sharply reducing fracking, have reduced fuel supplies and are insuring that current gas and natural gas prices will remain unusually high for now, and probably some time to come. The recent release of oil surplus is an open admission that our government policies are creating more problems than they cure.

Gas prices are taking a toll on those who have to drive to work, and trucking companies that have to move our products. Just wait until Winter fully arrives, and those who heat with gas or heating oil start seeing their energy bills.

Solar and wind supply only a small fraction of our electrical power, and it will be years before there is enough Green energy to replace fossil fuels. Couple that with recent events in Texas and California...where lack of infrastructure, and poor maintenance have caused widespread electrical outages....and it is obvious that we are a long way from an orderly transition to Green.

 

[Harry Le Hermit]

Another report from the BLS for Producer Prices.

Basically, "stuff" other than food and energy is increasing ahead of the CPI, as well as the entire PPI. The intermediates rose slightly year over year and might be attributable to "base effects'.

The contracts for that 50M barrel oil release should be announced today. 18M barrels are for complete release, while 32M are in the exchange program. Deliveries for all should begin 12-16 and the exchange program (payback) begins in July 2022 and concludes 9-30-2024. In any event, it must be refined to have any impact on gasoline prices. Which brings up the question... why refine more, for the some bottom line result? "Optics"

 

[Don M.]

Basically, "stuff" other than food and energy is increasing ahead of the CPI, as well as the entire PPI.

Everything is going up in price....not just gas and groceries. The rate of inflation is well over 9% for the year...which will quickly negate any SS COLA.
We bought a new electric range, this past Spring....and it was sale for slightly under $1000. A few days ago I was researching an item at the same store, and checked on the current price of our new range....it is now "on sale" for $1190.

 

[Harry Le Hermit]

Everything is going up in price....not just gas and groceries. The rate of inflation is well over 9% for the year...which will quickly negate any SS COLA.

I am thinking the retail sales report tomorrow, might not be so healthy... after the inflation is backed out of the numbers. I would think a lot of holiday shopping took place a bit earlier than 21st century "seasonal" norms. But that is tomorrow's gripe!

Of course, if you are considering a lump of coal as a stocking stuffer ... it is down quite a bit from 2 months ago, although still very much higher than last year.

 

[CarolfromTX]

Had dinner at my daughters house on Sunday. Corned beef and cabbage. She confessed she bought the corned beef last summer and froze it, then never got around to serving it until Sunday. She looked up the current price per pound. It’s $2.00 per pound higher now. About a 30% plus increase over 6 months. Ouch. It was delish, by the way.

 

[Liberty]

Time to revert to dividend funds. The Dow will be the best looking dog in the kennel.

 

[mathjak107]

Meh …..no one can predict what markets will do

fed announces rate hike plans and markets go up .

dividends don’t mean the stocks are any safer ..just look at AT&T ….

 

[Liberty]

Meh …..no one can predict what markets will do

fed announces rate hike plans and markets go up .

dividends don’t mean the stocks are any safer ..just look at AT&T ….

John Bogle said "nobody knows nothing"...lol.

 

[Aunt Bea]

IMO the advance notice of possible rate hikes allows the financial markets to factor them in without making them a big concern.

I'm concerned that all of the stimulus money pumped into the economy disrupted the normal market cycles.

The markets can't seem to find an excuse to make a serious correction, but at some point, they will.

"The four most expensive words in the English language are, This time it's different." - John Templeton

 

[mathjak107]

right now the problem isn’t monetary as much as it is supply chain shortages…the fed can’t make more lumber or cream cheese or beef or car chips .

much of what was handed out was either spent on servicing existing debt or saved , not buying new goods and services .

we are the problem not the money supply

 

[oldmontana]

Meh …..no one can predict what markets will do

fed announces rate hike plans and markets go up .

dividends don’t mean the stocks are any safer ..just look at AT&T ….

Yes, not all didvidend stock are safe. AT&T is just one stock. That is why I have several dividend stocks includind ATT&t which is paying almost 9% and their earnings look good.

 

[mathjak107]

and your point quoting ?

 

[Liberty]

Yesterday the only thing that made money for me was the great dividend fund I've got- the other funds lost. Value time.

 

[mathjak107]

Yesterday the only thing that made money for me was the great dividend fund I've got- the other funds lost. Value time.

My gold , commodities and real return fund were up along with bonds

 

[Liberty]

My gold , commodities and real return fund were up along with bonds

So far today, should have bought Tech - Nasdaq up nicely!

 

[Don M.]

So far today, should have bought Tech - Nasdaq up nicely!

That could, and probably will, change next week. The markets have been a real mess the past few weeks. Between all the bad news surrounding this virus, and the supply chain shortages, etc., following the market has been a bit disheartening. However, with the strong, and somewhat questionable rises in the markets over the past few months, a "correction" is quite understandable.

I gave up trying to "time" the markets some time ago, and just moved everything into a fairly conservative portfolio. The few times I've tried to "predict" the markets, I've guessed wrong. Now, I'm just satisfied to maintain a good "base", and not get too concerned about all the short term movements.

 

[Aunt Bea]

It can be a volatile time of year with annual distributions, year-end tax planning, IRA contributions, etc...

I don't attempt to play the market I buy and hold.

I haven't sold anything since 2012. I do continue to buy as money becomes available.

 

[fmdog44]

It can be a volatile time of year with annual distributions, year-end tax planning, IRA contributions, etc...

I don't attempt to play the market I buy and hold.

I haven't sold anything since 2012. I do continue to buy as money becomes available.

Holding takes patience a lot of people don't have. Too many young people want max gains in the shortest periods of time. The internet explosion/collapse was the best example of that. I will consider selling if one flat lines for three (+/-) years. I have had money in a Vanguard dividend fund for a long time that I am satisfied with. I am no expert, so I watch and listen to the experts.

 

[Aunt Bea]

Holding takes patience a lot of people don't have. Too many young people want max gains in the shortest periods of time. The internet explosion/collapse was the best example of that. I will consider selling if one flat lines for three (+/-) years. I have had money in a Vanguard dividend fund for a long time that I am satisfied with. I am no expert, so I watch and listen to the experts.

I’m too lazy to follow the market as a trader.

When I was young part of my job was selling mortgages. It required me to be glued to a Telerate screen trying to anticipate the fluctuations in the mortgage market to find the best price and time to sell. I found it to be very tedious and stressful. Some of my coworkers thrived on it like it was an exhilarating video game.

I’m just not cut out to be a trader.