22 Dec 2021: New Omnicron variant data shows it is milder with fewer hospitalizations.

AnnieA

AnnieA

Well-known Member
Location
Down South
News article overview:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...ted-with-omicron-compared-to-delta/ar-AAS3Xlx

Data links:

University of Edinburgh data showing two-thirds reduction in hospitalizations compared to Delta.

National Institute of Communicable Diseases of South Africa in conjunction with several other universities and medical facilities data shows 80% fewer hospitalizations than other waves. Previous infection natural immunity and vaccines both provide protection against the Omnicron variant.

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Murrmurr said:
This is good news, especially if the Omicron variant displaces the Delta variant. Then it would become just another seasonal flu.
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Well, not technically since coronavirus and influenza are two different viral families. Pre SARS-Cov-1 in 2003, coronaviruses mostly caused common cold symptoms. Most viral pandemics prior to modern medicine played out as natural immunity in previously infected individuals reached herd immunity levels and/or the virus mutated to milder forms. ...That's my prayer...that Covid-19 will mutate to the milder, common cold form of other coronaviruses. Also pray that natural immunity for Covid lasts as long as SARS-Cov-1 which has lasted up to 13 years.
 

AnnieA said:
Well, not technically since coronavirus and influenza are two different viral families. Pre SARS-Cov-1 in 2003, coronaviruses mostly caused common cold symptoms. Most viral pandemics prior to modern medicine played out as natural immunity in previously infected individuals reached herd immunity levels and/or the virus mutated to milder forms. ...That's my prayer...that Covid-19 will mutate to the milder, common cold form of other coronaviruses. Also pray that natural immunity for Covid lasts as long as SARS-Cov-1 which has lasted up to 13 years.
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Ok then, just another seasonal "cold"/virus.
 
I won't fault any of the data, but will point out the speed of which Omicron is spreading. Accepting the hospitalization rate is much lower than delta, but omicron is spreading much faster than delta, then we end up hospitals being nearly overrun in the short term. The simpler way to imagine this, is considering it to be a normal year's deaths of flu (USA: 40,000~70,000) being compressed into a 6 week or 2 month timeframe.

As for the data... South Africa's demographics are very different than the USA, with the UK being nearer.

There does seem to be hope, but I'll stick with my current program... hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
 
Harry Le Hermit said:
I won't fault any of the data, but will point out the speed of which Omicron is spreading. Accepting the hospitalization rate is much lower than delta, but omicron is spreading much faster than delta, then we end up hospitals being nearly overrun in the short term. The simpler way to imagine this, is considering it to be a normal year's deaths of flu (USA: 40,000~70,000) being compressed into a 6 week or 2 month timeframe.

As for the data... South Africa's demographics are very different than the USA, with the UK being nearer.

There does seem to be hope, but I'll stick with my current program... hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
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When you consider vaccination rates plus naturally acquired immunity (which is the reason for South Africa's low Omnicron hospitalizations), then the lower hospitalization rates become more encouraging for the US. We've got three things going for us--the two types of immunity and the milder presentation of the Omnicron variant. Those without prior immunity (a minority of the US population at this point) from previous infection or vaccination are going to account for most cases that will end up hospitalized. Approximately 147-187 million Americans (last CDC estimates) have recovered from Covid. Appx 200 million Americans are fully vaccinated. We have a population of of 330ish million. There are people who are both recovered and vaccinated, so we can't add the natural immunity and vaccine acquired immunity, but there's a significant amount of protection.
 
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Harry Le Hermit said:
You left out a major factor, which is only 5.5% of the South African population is above the age of 60, while it is 16.5% in the USA.
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From the Methodology section:

  • We controlled for factors known to be associated with severity (age, presence of co-morbidity, sex, province and healthcare sector) and adjusted for the number of days between the date of specimen collection and date of hospital admission, known prior SARS-CoV-2 infection and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination status.

I had wondered about other factors such as poor healthcare access in some provinces as well as South Africa having the highest percent population of HIV in the world. Good to know the different variables were taken into account and that even with South Africa's challenges, hospitalizations were still much lower for the Omnicron variant.

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Harry Le Hermit said:
That is for Scotland.
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Nope. It's directly copied from Early assessment of the clinical severity of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in South Africa. The Scots data collectors probably did something similar. 'Province' is your tip off that it's SA.

Posting again from #9 since we're drifting a bit....


From the Methodology section of the South African data.

  • We controlled for factors known to be associated with severity (age, presence of co-morbidity, sex, province and healthcare sector) and adjusted for the number of days between the date of specimen collection and date of hospital admission, known prior SARS-CoV-2 infection and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination status.

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