Breaking News... That Chinese Spy Balloon. Thoughts?

Speculation on the "why" ....

What if China's reason was to test the defensive reaction of those who are charged with defending this country?

Since there was no effective defensive reaction we might reasonably wonder what China will send next.
 

There is a thought that the "balloon" may contain bio-weapons?
Probably not, but it is a thought.

I still think China will merge with Russia to war against the United States.
But, This may not happen for several years. Time is relative.

I don't understand our disregard of this inadequate approach because
this is the Chinese Communist Government invading international law.
Does anyone think this is an "accident"?
Are they testing their perimeters and finding out we are wimps?
 
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Murrmurr said:
In any case, shooting down another country's aircraft is an act of war, no matter what type it is, unless it's armed, of course. And that has to be confirmed before you start shooting.
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They (China) were sure fast to call it a "civilian aircraft"... assuming we'd shoot it down, perhaps??!! Because "US Shoots down Chinese civilian aircraft" would give them some great headlines and justification for anything they'd do? That's a whole other ugly possibility to think about, isn't it?
 

Gaer said:
There is a thought that the "balloon" may contain bio-weapons?
Probably not, but it is a thought.

I still think China will merge with Russia to war against the United States.
But, This may not happen for several years. Time is relative.
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That's one of the theories or it could be an experimental emp weapon which is basically a low yield nuke. The Chinese might want to test how radiation affects navigation. Which would also be a reason not to shoot it down because it's not just about debris falling on someone but material that could affect an entire area.
 
Gaer said:
There is a thought that the "balloon" may contain bio-weapons?
Probably not, but it is a thought.

I still think China will merge with Russia to war against the United States.
But, This may not happen for several years. Time is relative.

I don't understand our disregard of this inadequate approach because
this is the Chinese Communist Government invading international law.
Does anyone think this is an "accident"?
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Not an accident but it's possible the thing drifted off its true course. China doesn't care about where their space stuff drifts or falls.

I'm pretty sure the CCP has as much right to international airspace as any nation, but they do not believe laws created by the west apply to them at all. They create their own laws. They believe that air and oceans have no boundaries, or that none of it's off-limits for them, anyway.

China doesn't want to merge with Russia. The CCP does not want to share power. And I think the Russian Communist Party's time is limited. Putin's time is, anyway. Honestly, Xi hates Putin's aggressive actions, he really does. He doesn't see any necessity for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and he doesn't like the old Soviet tactics they use. Also, Xi does not want to tangle with the west. He knows our military might and our military technology and experience surpasses China's.

The west still wants a good relationship with China, but their understanding of eastern thinking is limited. China understands the east and west are interdependent, and that their options are limited. The CCP has been trying to partner with India and Africa, but that's not going well...both India and African leaders are finding out the CCP is not a solid, trustworthy partner, and that loans from the CCP have very harsh, costly terms and conditions. Vietnam learned that lesson long ago.
 
Murrmurr said:
China doesn't want to merge with Russia. The CCP does not want to share power.
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I agree, I think China is more a threat to Russia than a potential partner. This is an interesting piece on the issue:

China’s long game with Russia https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3261907-chinas-long-game-with-russia/​

To quote in part:

The prospect of having ready access to a treasure trove of minerals and hydro-carbons closer to home – in Russia’s Far East (RFE) – must be a temptation for Beijing . The RFE is that part of Siberia east of Lake Baikal all the way to Russia’s east coast. This underdeveloped region is rich in oil, natural gas, timber and valuable minerals, such as copper, diamonds, lead, zinc, bauxite, nickel, tin, mercury, gold and silver.

Russia has been unable to develop the region, but not for lack of trying. In 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced plans to invest billions in the RFE. In an effort to populate the area, he offered free land to those who would move there. Nonetheless, the region’s population fell by more than 100,000 between 2012 and 2018. A survey of the region by the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center found that 48 percent of the residents there want to leave the region.

Developing the riches of Russia’s Far East is a daunting challenge. The infrastructure is deficient. The winters are harsh. The tundra does not easily support roads. And it appears that Russians don’t want to move there.

That may not be the case for China. The three Chinese provinces that border the RFE have a combined population over 109 million people. The total Russian population of the Far East Federal District is just over 6 million. Thus, the RFE offers both an abundant supply of industrial inputs and an outlet for demographic pressures.
 
Good info Alligatorob, RE: China's long game with Russia.

One only has to read Peking to Paris, 'Prince Borghese's Journey across two Continents in 1907' to get a grasp of the magnitude, isolation and extreme harshness of the area.

Beijing will be hard pressed to exercise a presence there. Heck, Russia can't even manage it.

And yeah, there is now lots of open-source info coming to print regarding the airship incursion here in the U.S. Seems the balloon is indeed navigable. Which shines a whole 'nuther light on the issue.
 
If it's navigable, where is it going?
Does anyone know if there's a weapon inside. Biological or chemical?
I doubt it but I also doubted two planes would crash into the World Trade Center.
I'm not panicking, just thinking.
 
Personally I don't think there's a weapon of any kind... I think they're either checking out our sensitive sites, or maybe there's nothing at all in it and it's being done to intimidate and say "See? Look how close we can get without you stopping us." But like we said here, they're much more sophisticated to get sensitive intelligence than using a balloon they *knew* we'd catch/see it, so I'm not sure I believe that it was even for info gathering... and that leaves intimidation/provocation.

My major concern isn't that it's *there* but rather how it flew right in past the Aleutian Islands (Alaska) and through Canada without being stopped or at least brought to light before last night.
 
hearlady said:
If it's navigable, where is it going?
Does anyone know if there's a weapon inside. Biological or chemical?
I doubt it but I also doubted two planes would crash into the World Trade Center.
I'm not panicking, just thinking.
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Navigable, eliminates this as a weather balloon that happened to wander off, doesn't it?
If this is intentional, the whole world will view us as wimps for appeasing Communist China.
 
It's a mystery why China with all its advanced satellites would launch a spy balloon. Such an old fashioned action.
I believe they are just toying with the US, reminding them they are around.
Nothing to worry about in IMHO
 
I simply cannot believe they haven't downed it. They gave some ridiculous excuse of "debris", which sounds like a smokescreen. They should down it, study it, and issue a warning to China.
 
Myrtle said:
Are you saying we might lose technology by shooting it down? Could you enlarge on that a bit?



I don't think anyone is talking about an attack from the balloon itself, Packerjohn. The balloon is gathering American secrets. Perhaps they will use that for a future attack but they wouldn't if we had kept them from getting the info in the first place.

They are now saying that they have mitigated the ability of the balloon and they are learning from monitoring it. Of course we all believe every word of that. :rolleyes:

I don't know but I do think Americans should be interested in spying by China and a lot of other things that are going on with the Chinese and our government. :censored:
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No I was responding to this line in your post

Quote
" I would love to see it fly into a million little pieces and burn on the way down. 🤬"

As for war with China
Right now our government is arguing over the debt ceiling. I think this would sink us if called to pay up.
Of the total 7.2 trillion held by foreign countries, Japan and Mainland China held the greatest portions, with China holding 870 billion U.S. dollars in U.S. securities. Other foreign holders included oil exporting countries and Caribbean banking centers.5 days ago
https://www.statista.com/statistics...lion,countries and Caribbean banking centers.

U.S. treasury securities major foreign holders 2022 - Statista​

https://www.statista.com › statistics › major-foreign-holder

As for the balloon. The danger it poses is in collecting info. Our national highway system, our rail system our electrical grid, our port load & distribution system. What better way to cripple a country than to demand debt payment & or disrupt all forms of transportation & electrical power?
 
CallMeKate said:
... I think they're either checking out our sensitive sites, or maybe there's nothing at all in it and it's being done to intimidate and say "See? Look how close we can get without you stopping us."
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That's the most likely scenario, imo.

I don't doubt the US is discussing the balloon with China, and that China isn't being completely honest about it. But China knows that if this happens again, they'll lose their balloon.
 
VaughanJB said:
Disastrous how? It's US airspace. It's supposedly a weather balloon. Seems to me they spend a lot of money on defense and it can be defeated by floating a balloon over.
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How? You ask....this is how....

Words from Pentagon Official

"Why not shoot it down? We have to do the risk-reward here," a senior defence official said on Thursday.

"So the first question is, does it pose a threat, a physical kinetic threat, to individuals in the United States in the US homeland? Our assessment is it does not.

"Does it pose a threat to civilian aviation? Our assessment is it does not. Does it pose a significantly enhanced threat on the intelligence side? Our best assessment right now is that it does not.

"So given that profile, we assess the risk of downing it, even if the probability is low in a sparsely populated area of the debris falling and hurting someone or damaging property, that it wasn't worth it."

A US official added on Friday to CNN: "This isn't like Top Gun where it just explodes and doesn't go anywhere. It's large and it's metal, it would put hundreds of Americans at risk."
 
Alligatorob said:
The Japanese launched a bunch of balloons with incendiaries, the idea was to start forest fires on the west coast. The balloons were sent from Japan and carried over the Pacific on prevailing winds. They did manage to start a few fires, nothing awful. Only the one detonated near people. https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb5374039.pdf

DOD kept it secret for a long time, did not want to panic the public.

So, yes it is possible. And might be hard to trace...
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Unfortunately, the Chinese don't need to start fires on the west coast. That happens far too often these days. :(
 
hollydolly said:
From Bloomberg...



Details on the exact capabilities of this particular balloon are unclear, with a US official who briefed reporters Thursday declining to answer several questions about its size or specifications. American officials have asserted that the balloon has a limited ability to collect meaningful intelligence data, beyond what the Chinese can already gather through their satellite network. The North American Aerospace Defense Command, or Norad, said Thursday it “continues to track and monitor it closely,” while Canada’s defense department said it was tracking a “potential second incident,” without elaborating.

Why has China sent the balloon up now?


The Chinese have for decades complained about US surveillance by ships and spy planes near its own territory, leading to occasional confrontation over the years. And instances of Chinese balloon activity near American territory have been observed prior to Thursday’s announcement, US officials said. But it’s unclear why the balloon is flying over the US at this moment. The revelation comes just days before US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s expected visit to Beijing and risks undermining Beijing’s diplomatic efforts to create a constructive backdrop for the first US secretary of state visit to China since Michael Pompeo’s trip in 2018. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said Friday that Beijing was “gathering and verifying the facts” and hoped “the relevant parties will handle the matter in a cool-headed way.”

Why hasn’t the Pentagon shot the balloon down?
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin advised President Joe Biden against shooting the balloon down because of the possible risk of falling debris. While authorities were contemplating the option when the balloon was floating over sparsely populated areas of Montana, it was assessed that the “sizeable” object was large enough to cause potential damage. It’s floating well above the altitude used by civilian aircraft, so is unlikely to pose any immediate danger to the public.

. How has the US responded?
The senior official said the US had raised the balloon issue with China, and the Wall Street Journal reported that the State Department had summoned the Chinese charge d’affaires. It wasn’t immediate clear if the incident would affect Blinken’s planned trip to China. The Biden administration also briefed staff for the “Gang of Eight,” a group including the chairs and ranking members of the House and Senate intelligence committees, another official said. Republicans, meanwhile, are pushing Biden for a stronger response, with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy calling the incursion a “brazen disregard for US sovereignty.”
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Why do you folks in the UK always have more information on what is happening in the US than those of us who live here? Thanks for sharing.

(Never mind the post. I see it came from Bloomberg. I need to do more research!)
 

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