What happens now with Ukraine?

seadoug

seadoug

Well-known Member
Location
Texas
I'm hoping this isn't political since it doesn't directly involve our US politics but here goes...

The invasion of Ukraine happened almost 2 years ago. It is now on the back burner in the media due to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, and there will most likely be no more money allocated from the US toward their defense in 2023. We also know the American public have short memories and no patience for long wars. The lack of US funding for Ukraine may also mean some of the European countries follow suit.

So, what happens next?

  • Does Zelensky sit down with Putin and make some sort of agreement that turns over land to Russia?
  • Does Putin consider this a victory and start to consider invading other European countries like Poland?
  • Does NATO then become involved and draw the US into this war?
  • Does this become a signal for China to invade Taiwan?
  • Does this lead us into WWIII?

Not trying to be "chicken little" but this is concerning.

Please, no comments on the current or previous US administration. Just want to know your predictions.
 

Same kind of demilitarized zone agreements that led to North and South Korea where neither side gets what they want and instead compromises in negotiated ways with continued animosity painting a bleak future for real peace.

When the Ukraine Russia war began I didn't know squat about the issues or history but read some European sourced scholar level histories of its issues and posted several links to such on this web board. This was another military industrial complex proxy war by deeply entrenched neoconservatives in both parties along with their NATO counterparts and news medias they controlled. All the killing and horrible destruction could have been negotiated away 2 years ago but warmongering neoconservative goals and narratives prevailed. Interestingly within a few months, some of those historical links no longer show given web searching.

At some point when it seemed to be going Ukraine's way, neoconservatives seemed to come out of the background and in news opinions proclaimed how productive their proxy war was all going as we gave pain indirectly to their many decades long hated enemy expecting a regime change and economic chaos. But no, that did not happen.. Now both sides will need to compromise having gained little while causing immense suffering, misery, and hate that will last for decades while painfully jacking up inflation for the rest of us. So so SAD.
 
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They will have to compromise which is what should have happened to start with. I don’t think we should give Ukraine or Israel money when we have a large homeless population including veterans.

Russia will not invade Poland as they have done in the past because it’s a NATO country. My DIL’s entire family lives there so I am glad that they joined NATO.
 

To your bullet points:

Zelensky will not give Russia any land. Giving Ukrainian territory to Russia would also mean giving Ukrainians who live on it to Russia. That isn't going to happen as long as Zelensky is president.

Putin might just up and call this a victory but he won't consider invading other European countries for a very long time. In fact, I doubt he'll live that long.

NATO would not benefit from drawing the US into any war.

This could either encourage the CCP to invade Taiwan, or persuade them not to.

At this point, only Putin could lead us into WWIII, and I doubt very much that he wants to.


Only one thing could potentially impede the US from continuing to support Ukraine's military effort, and it's entirely political, so I won't go into the details. But I suspect you know them.

And I'm saying impede support, not stop it. I think we'll see a falter; a delay; but I'm certain it will pick back up at some point. Like after a couple months or so.

I think most Americans don't realize that producing weapons and ammo and other supplies for Ukraine means tens of thousands of well-paying jobs here. And those earnings boost the US economy in general. It's totally a win-win.
 
First of all, our giving that money for our own homeless instead of foreign aid is never going to happen. The money will never be diverted for this. It's never going to happen. I can't say that enough. N.E.V.E.R. So for it to be used as a reason to end foreign aid is a useless endeavor.
 
Second of all, I used to have dreams of Zelensky's head on a pike. I still have those dreams. On a pike, paraded through Moscow. Like the medieval days.
 
I would like to see both parties sit down together. I just don't see Russia doing it. Especially if we have our own regime change. Then it will be easy pickings. Okay, maybe not easy, but they don't care about easy. They care about eventuality, and that would be on their side.
 
Failing to fund Ukraine hands the country to Russia. After two years, and billions spent, we (the west) appear to be the first to blink. There is no compromise to be had. Russia need to withdraw. If Russia wins, then you've handed them a lot of great PR. You're also saying that they can invade whomever they want, they just have to wait it out.

It would be a disaster, and a huge failure for the west. Ukraine isn't in NATO, but it sure is part of Europe, and we're handing it over to a dictator.
 
Beating the Russians in UKr is money well spent for a number of reasons. It will certainly come back to haunt us should we fail to support UKr w everything we can - which is a LOT.

But yesterday the House had time to debate whether full fat milk was suitable for school lunches.
 
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Ukraine will be 'absorbed' by Russia.
The USA will make lots of noise complaining about the takeover, but do nothing more...
Russia will do nothing more, as they will not tempt NATO by going after Poland.
WWIII will not start, least we all die, including Russians...
 
I LOVE to talk Politics but certainly wont do that here.

But I am becoming very concerned about our own border, with so many immigrants crossing into America every day.
I believe most of these people are Good people, but I feel something must be done to radically change the in-flow.

I heard this AM that about ten thousand more people are on the way, many are on the rooftops of trains.

I am the product of immigrants who became citizens of USA.
 
I saw the Ukraine war as a money laundering operation. One of the best ever perhaps. War would be endless if people continue to support the military industrial complex. A few people /corporations become wealthier through war while entire nations suffer. This isn't the 1940s anymore. Wars last generations now and become both a burden and an embarrassment. I guess supporting peace is unpopular but I do.
 
Widow of Vietnam Vet said:
I LOVE to talk Politics but certainly wont do that here.

But I am becoming very concerned about our own border, with so many immigrants crossing into America every day.
I believe most of these people are Good people, but I feel something must be done to radically change the in-flow.

I heard this AM that about ten thousand more people are on the way, many are on the rooftops of trains.

I am the product of immigrants who became citizens of USA.
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I’m also concerned about this and we can’t keep taking in people. We have financial limitations and we need to spend our money helping our citizens. We need to cut foreign aid and direct it to our country. We have infrastructure such as roads and bridges failing while we send billions to other countries.

Part of the reason that many countries are unstable is that we have been meddling in their politics and we have helped to create many of these issues. If we had stayed out of it some of these countries wouldn’t have all their citizens trying to leave.
 
NYT- "The House on Thursday overwhelmingly passed an $886 billion defense bill, clearing the measure for [signing] after pushing past a revolt from the far right over the exclusion of restrictions they had sought to abortion access, transgender care, and racial diversity and inclusion policies at the Pentagon.

The 310-to-118 vote reflected the bipartisan nature of the bill, which earned the support of a majority of Democrats and Republicans despite the vocal opposition of hard-liners, who staged a last-ditch rebellion on the House floor to try to block its passage. [xxxxxxx] is expected to sign the measure into law, maintaining Washington’s six-decade streak of approving military policy legislation on an annual basis."

Where there is a will there is a way even in the face of huge dysfunction in the House. This gives me some slight hope the US will not abandon UKr and let Russia, Iran, N Korea, and China win.
 
againstthegrain said:
NYT- "The House on Thursday overwhelmingly passed an $886 billion defense bill, clearing the measure for [signing] after pushing past a revolt from the far right over the exclusion of restrictions they had sought to abortion access, transgender care, and racial diversity and inclusion policies at the Pentagon.

The 310-to-118 vote reflected the bipartisan nature of the bill, which earned the support of a majority of Democrats and Republicans despite the vocal opposition of hard-liners, who staged a last-ditch rebellion on the House floor to try to block its passage. [xxxxxxx] is expected to sign the measure into law, maintaining Washington’s six-decade streak of approving military policy legislation on an annual basis."

Where there is a will there is a way even in the face of huge dysfunction in the House. This gives me some slight hope the US will not abandon UKr and let Russia, Iran, N Korea, and China win.
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Thankfully that bill doesn’t include the 66 billion that has been asked for to give to Ukraine. Although it does include 300 million for them. The bill does give troops a raise which they deserve. We have paid them poorly for decades.

What really pi***s me off is that cutting SS and Medicare has been discussed frequently yet we can afford billions in foreign aid. Once we become a third world country the elites will live in gated communities while the middle class disappears and the rest live in squalor.

At one point in my life I really wanted grandchildren but now I am glad my kids chose otherwise. I do wonder how my kids senior years will be.
 
According to a recent WSJ article the Russian army has been reduced to about 90%.

The intelligence assessment, according to a congressional source, says that 315,000 Russian personnel have been killed or injured since the February 2022 invasion, or about 87% of Moscow’s prewar force of 360,000.
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Russia also has lost nearly two-thirds of its tank force, or 2,200 out of its 3,500 preinvasion stock, the congressional source said.
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Teacher Terry said:
Thankfully that bill doesn’t include the 66 billion that has been asked for to give to Ukraine. Although it does include 300 million for them. The bill does give troops a raise which they deserve. We have paid them poorly for decades.

What really pi***s me off is that cutting SS and Medicare has been discussed frequently yet we can afford billions in foreign aid. Once we become a third world country the elites will live in gated communities while the middle class disappears and the rest live in squalor.

At one point in my life I really wanted grandchildren but now I am glad my kids chose otherwise. I do wonder how my kids senior years will be.
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The same people that want to abandon UKr are the same ones that would like to reduce or eliminate SS and Medicare.
 
Pepper said:
First of all, our giving that money for our own homeless instead of foreign aid is never going to happen. The money will never be diverted for this. It's never going to happen. I can't say that enough. N.E.V.E.R. So for it to be used as a reason to end foreign aid is a useless endeavor.
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What I'm hearing is that one side of congress says the money will go to "securing the border" and "immigration reform", two phrases that have been both party's favorite ambiguous, no-result promises for 40 years now.

Probably 85 to 90% of the money the US "gives" to Ukraine never leaves the US. It's used to pay our own military for battlefield arms, equipment, supplies, and trainers who train Ukrainian soldiers, and to pay the American factories that produce all that stuff so they can buy materials, most of which are American, pay their American employees, and hire more Americans as needed.

That's how war makes money. People used to pitch and moan about that. Called it the Military Industrial Complex like it's a dirty word. Suddenly they forgot how rich we get during war?

The other approximately 10 to 15% goes directly to Ukrainian infrastructure-type companies and services, like their electric company and roads and bridges companies, etc, and a handful of charitable organizations....all fully vetted. And Americans probly make a little off that, too, because it goes through US charity liaisons, coordinators and distributors and whatnot.
 
I'm with those it's going to wind up a North South Korea types stalemate.

Not too worried about Putin trying to invade elsewhere because Ukraine alone seems to be drawing a huge chunk of his resources. He would fare even worse in other countries with more air power for example.
 
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