2025 Social Security COLA Projection of 2.66% Now Revised To 3.4%

OneEyedDiva

OneEyedDiva

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The original estimate was just 1.75%, then was revised to 2.66% according to The Senior Citizen's League. But that figure was updated again to 3.4% according to Mary Johnson, a retired SS and Medicare policy analyst for the league. The MSN article below mirrors the latter revision, citing the increase in inflation as of March's report. Of course, the final figure our COLA will be based on will be reported in August, so numbers could see more revisions.
MSN
 

That's fine, but then they will also most likely increase the Medicare payment. :mad:

Then the news, which is staffed by 95% people younger than 55, will yell and shout that this is a good news story! But that's because those young people don't know the right questions to ask the older people, like,

"So how much has your rent/groceries/gas/Medicare payment increased in the past year?"

Old Person: "Oh, they all increased about 5% to 9%."
"So then, at 3.4% increase you're still falling behind financially."
Old Person: "Yes."

Then one wing of the political spectrum will use the news to scream and cry that all these "entitlements" must end!!!!! Can you imagine if that actually happened - if they killed Social Security next year, we all get $0.00? The churches would have to build Senior Only Homeless Shelters right quick because some Seniors are so physically vulnerable to getting assaulted and robbed by younger people - even by fellow Seniors, but even old guys start to lose their strength over time. But some old people still go crazy over time, so they can still beat on other Seniors if they have brain diseases.

But yeah - that's what would happen. A vast network of Seniors-Only Shelters would have to be opened. Then the young news reporters would be there, creating "good news" stories about Senior Only Shelters - as IF that is actually a good thing!?

This is why I have lost interest in much of the news. Same old arguments repeated ad infinitum, with few real solutions.

I'm sorry to be a Debbie Downer about this. To keep up with inflation and Medicare, maybe it should rise 9%? Maybe?

I'll bet this pisses off young people when they see the gov't. automatically increase Social Security, but the gov't, will not automatically increase the Federal Minimum Wage.
 
VintageBetter said:
That's fine, but then they will also most likely increase the Medicare payment. :mad:

Then the news, which is staffed by 95% people younger than 55, will yell and shout that this is a good news story! But that's because those young people don't know the right questions to ask the older people, like,

"So how much has your rent/groceries/gas/Medicare payment increased in the past year?"

Old Person: "Oh, they all increased about 5% to 9%."
"So then, at 3.4% increase you're still falling behind financially."
Old Person: "Yes."

Then one wing of the political spectrum will use the news to scream and cry that all these "entitlements" must end!!!!! Can you imagine if that actually happened - if they killed Social Security next year, we all get $0.00? The churches would have to build Senior Only Homeless Shelters right quick because some Seniors are so physically vulnerable to getting assaulted and robbed by younger people - even by fellow Seniors, but even old guys start to lose their strength over time. But some old people still go crazy over time, so they can still beat on other Seniors if they have brain diseases.

But yeah - that's what would happen. A vast network of Seniors-Only Shelters would have to be opened. Then the young news reporters would be there, creating "good news" stories about Senior Only Shelters - as IF that is actually a good thing!?

This is why I have lost interest in much of the news. Same old arguments repeated ad infinitum, with few real solutions.

I'm sorry to be a Debbie Downer about this. To keep up with inflation and Medicare, maybe it should rise 9%? Maybe?

I'll bet this pisses off young people when they see the gov't. automatically increase Social Security, but the gov't, will not automatically increase the Federal Minimum Wage.
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Medicare premiums increase every year. I don't expect it will be any different in 2025, but let's hope they leave us at least half of that raise! 🙄
 

Last year, for most people, Medicare premiums went up $4 a month, $6 the year before. in 2022 it went up $22, but the COLA adjustment was 8.7%, which more than covered even low SS benefits.

Yes, the cost of living continues to increase. Nothing new on that front.

A 3.4% SS bump is higher than I would have expected. Guess we'll see what SS has to say come October.
 
VintageBetter said:
Then one wing of the political spectrum will use the news to scream and cry that all these "entitlements" must end!!!!!
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This seems either disingenuous or at the least uninformed. As far as I can tell the "cry" isn't even from "a wing of the political spectrum" as much as it is everybody not in the other wing.

Any "cry" should more properly be about unearned pork, not earned entitlements... which is a redundant phrase. Our problem is that "entitlement" has been expanded politically far beyond the meaning of the word. Unearned handouts are often very justifiable, but should always be open to review and reconsideration. I'd start with military expenditures, right after we forcibly eject all the agents of foreign powers - who have no right to any access to our representatives at all. We should probably even jail a few for their brazen bribery.
 
His Dudeness said:
Social Security is not an Entitlement. People pay into the fund for their entire working life. An entitlement is something that people have NOT paid into.
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The word entitlement is defined in two different ways:
The fact of having a right to something or the belief that one is inherently deserving of privileges or special treatment. Social security belongs with the first definition.
 
Brookswood said:
Agreed. Talk of killing off Social Security is scare tactics. But, if Congress does nothing then we will see a cut of about 25% automatically sometime in the early to mid 2030’s.
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No comprenny.....if it's only scare tactics, why should we fear a 25% reduction? The fact is, it's not scare tactics. SS will be reduced to make more spending room for wars and such. After all, never-ending wars are more important than the security of our older folks.
 
Teacher Terry said:
SS won’t be reduced in our lifetime is my prediction.
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In the 2024 "Status of the Social Security and Medicare Programs" by the board of trustees, Social Security "will be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until 2033, unchanged from last year's report. At that time, the fund's reserves will become depleted and continuing program income will be sufficient to pay 79 percent of scheduled benefits." (Trustees Report Summary).

@Teacher Terry I prefer your prediction, however.
 
Not sure where the 3.4% projection comes from, as I have seen nothing with it that high. The senior citizen's league has projected 2.66%, which is a tick up from 2.6%. Social Security's 2025 COLA Forecast Just Improved. Here's the Latest Estimate

I would project the following...
cpi and cola projections.jpg
That is 2.7% to 3.0%, which is not out of line with the league's projections. We get to speculate until October 10th, when the BLS releases the September data.
 
jpstrap said:
No comprenny.....if it's only scare tactics, why should we fear a 25% reduction? The fact is, it's not scare tactics. SS will be reduced to make more spending room for wars and such. After all, never-ending wars are more important than the security of our older folks.
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I meant the talk of killing SS completely. Getting rid of all of it. Those scare tactics.

As far as the future cuts due to decreased payroll tax collections, we will see what happens. I am not hopeful.
 
Save more. Spend less on booze and wild women. What else can I do If SS is to be cut?

OTOH, skip the savings part. If things are going to be very bad, maybe I should blow it all now on wine and wild women.
 
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Brookswood said:
Agreed. Talk of killing off Social Security is scare tactics. But, if Congress does nothing then we will see a cut of about 25% automatically sometime in the early to mid 2030’s.
Click to expand...
It would be nice if they did reduce SS they offered us seniors some concessions on taxes. Maybe eliminate all SS tax thresholds caused by earnings our retirement withdraws. Heck just eliminate tax on retirement withdraws completly or impose a rate cap of 10%.

Also something I think they should do right now is eliminate the RMD rule. At the very least if the government wants to force withdraws on us after age 73 wave the tax on those withdraws. Forcing us into withdraws and then burdening us with taxes and tax consequences is just mean.
 
I’m glad that most of my income comes from my state pension that has yearly raises and won’t be cut. My SS of 469/month is so low. Many seniors are barely surviving and couldn’t afford any cuts at all especially given the recent inflation the past 3 years.
 
mathjak107 said:
i agree .

it will be fully funded in the 11th hour
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I "said" it before and I'll "say" it again....I sure hope you're right! I've been following this situation for years. Analysts have been predicting the cut years before the Social Security Board of Trustees released its reports stating the possibility SS will be cut across the board. At first the cut was projected to be 24% and a couple of years later than stated below. Here is an excerpt from one of several articles I've read over the years about the projected cut in our SS:

"A Social Security funding crisis could be on the horizon if policymakers fail to take action to protect the program in the next decade, threatening a 23% cut to all 70 million recipients' annual benefits, a new report claims.

The analysis by U.S. Budget Watch 2024, a project from the public policy organization Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, predicts that if the primary trust fund used to bankroll Social Security runs out of reserves by 2033, the average newly retired dual-income couple would see an immediate reduction of $17,400. Single-income couples would lose $13,100.

The CRFB’s projections are based on an annual report released in March by the Social Security Board of Trustees, which predicted in January that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will reach insolvency in the next 10 years without comprehensive revenue and benefits adjustments.

By that time, today’s youngest retirees, who are 62 years old, will be 72, and today's 57-year-old workers will have reached the minimum retirement age.

Once the trust fund is depleted, by law, it can only spend as much as it receives in incoming revenue, resulting in cuts for all beneficiaries. The warning comes as candidates in the next presidential election face partisan pressure to promise not to touch Social Security, a move that the CRFB says would spell disaster."
Will Social Security Benefits Really Get Slashed by 23% in the Next Decade?.
@Teacher Terry
 
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