Are you still in the stock market?

[Aunt Bea]

I’ve wondered where all of the labor will come from if we are successful in having a commercial construction boom and ultimately new factories.

Will automation, AI, robotics, reduce the need for workers or will we have some sort of inflationary bidding war to attract and retain workers.

A 4.2% unemployment rate makes me think that hiring, training, and retaining a new workforce will be a real challenge.

 

[Teacher Terry]

And 2 women in the neighborhood where I grew up took in ironing, charging a set price per shirt. As we know, times have changed a great deal since those days.

Yes but Starsong said that was true in 1974 and my experience was totally different.

 

[Teacher Terry]

I can't say how it works/worked in other states but California employers had to pay at least minimum wage.

Yes, the operators' production was tracked by piece-work, but many didn't surpass the daily piece-work threshold that gave them more than minimum wage. Good operators were highly valued.

I stand by my statement: factory sewing for a living is hard work. Tedious, extraordinarily repetitive, and rough on the back.

I’m not saying it wasn’t hard work as my mom was a top producer and was motivated by earning more. I don’t know if they were paid a minimum wage and then production. My point was immigrants and illegal labor were not doing the job back then in all states.

 

[StarSong]

I’m not saying it wasn’t hard work as my mom was a top producer and was motivated by earning more. I don’t know if they were paid a minimum wage and then production. My point was immigrants and illegal labor were not doing the job back then in all states.

Yes but Starsong said that was true in 1974 and my experience was totally different.

I said they were "virtually all" immigrants - documented and undocumented. Los Angeles and New York City were (and likely remain) America's largest fashion markets and apparel manufacturing centers. Chicago would have been #3. Those cities had large labor pools of recent immigrants.

Would a factory in Wisconsin have access to that same kind of labor pool back in the 60s & 70s? Probably not. But apparel factories in Wisconsin was likely a relatively rare bird.

I visited hundreds of contractors during the 70s & early 80s. Trust me, they were overwhelmingly staffed by recent immigrants from south of the border and later, Asia.

 

[Teacher Terry]

I said they were "virtually all" immigrants - documented and undocumented. Los Angeles and New York City were (and likely remain) America's largest fashion markets and apparel manufacturing centers. Chicago would have been #3. Those cities had large labor pools of recent immigrants.

Would a factory in Wisconsin have access to that same kind of labor pool back in the 60s & 70s? Probably not. But apparel factories in Wisconsin was likely a relatively rare bird.

I visited hundreds of contractors during the 70s & early 80s. Trust me, they were overwhelmingly staffed by recent immigrants from south of the border and later, Asia.

That’s interesting. The town in Wisconsin was a hour from Chicago. I know she was always exhausted and in her 50’s decided working retail was easier. Jockey was a large employer at the time.

 

[MACKTEXAS]

Yes but Starsong said that was true in 1974 and my experience was totally different.

Thanks for clarifying. As for the present: If we have enough able and willing factory workers in the United States to produce all the goods we need, the wages they expect will increase the cost of those goods to a level equal to or greater than the same goods cost with today's tariffs. And that's in addition to the higher cost of imported raw materials. Unfortunately, we cannot grow, manufacture, and produce everything we need or use within the Continental United States. Global supply chains are inherently interdependent.

 

[Aunt Bea]

People who are still ‘in the game’ will probably be able to manage the new price levels with new pay scales but I’m afraid that the squeeze will be extremely difficult for retired people that are unable to increase income to match inflation.

All of this is very worrisome but everything is changing so quickly that we can’t accurately anticipate what our future will look like.

 

[MACKTEXAS]

People who are still ‘in the game’ will probably be able to manage the new price levels with new pay scales but I’m afraid that the squeeze will be extremely difficult for retired people that are unable to increase income to match inflation.

All of this is very worrisome but everything is changing so quickly that we can’t accurately anticipate what our future will look like.

No, Aunt Bea, we cannot, nor do any of us know if we will even be here for it.

 

[Matrix]

I think the worst has passed. Even if we haven’t seen the bottom yet, a rebound should come first. I don’t have enough cash to buy 100 shares of SPY, and I don’t want to use margin either, so I just bought 2 MES contracts. I’m betting on a reversal today.

 

[OldOld]

I think the worst has passed. Even if we haven’t seen the bottom yet, a rebound should come first. I don’t have enough cash to buy 100 shares of SPY, and I don’t want to use margin either, so I just bought 2 MES contracts. I’m betting on a reversal today.

We will see if you are correct very soon.

 

[Matrix]

We will see if you are correct very soon.

I believe the tariff policy will eventually be reversed, otherwise, the consequences could be catastrophic beyond imagination. The U.S. dollar could lose its relevance, and the U.S. might become a bystander in the emergence of a new world order. I just hope we don’t have to wait two more years, it might be too late by then.

 

[Twostep]

I’ve wondered where all of the labor will come from if we are successful in having a commercial construction boom and ultimately new factories.

Will automation, AI, robotics, reduce the need for workers or will we have some sort of inflationary bidding war to attract and retain workers.

A 4.2% unemployment rate makes me think that hiring, training, and retaining a new workforce will be a real challenge.

Will? Try finding contractors now!

 

[OldOld]

I think the worst has passed. Even if we haven’t seen the bottom yet, a rebound should come first. I don’t have enough cash to buy 100 shares of SPY, and I don’t want to use margin either, so I just bought 2 MES contracts. I’m betting on a reversal today.

The stock market is still on its way down today. And, so you are wrong.

 

[mathjak107]

we may not be anywhere near a bottom .

atlanta fed is forecasting negative gdp for first quarter

 

[Matrix]

The stock market is still on its way down today. And, so you are wrong.

No, I’m not wrong, it’s a huge bullish bar, my 2 contracts got out with a nice profit. The lowest point of S&P future is 4832.5, now it sits at 5131.25, it rebounded 300 points from the bottom.

 

[Matrix]

we may not be anywhere near a bottom .

atlanta fed is forecasting negative gdp for first quarter

Bottom or not, SPY dropped more than 20%, it’s too much for a tariff policy, there has to be a rebound first. Take the chance and reduce our losses, when the market finally recovers someday, we will be ahead of others.

 

[mathjak107]

Bottom or not, SPY dropped more than 20%, it’s too much for a tariff policy, there has to be a rebound first. Take the chance and reduce our losses, when the market finally recovers someday, we will be ahead of others.

we are on the edge of a global meltdown ..

this is now a war , not with bombs and bullets but with goods , services and money

 

[mathjak107]

we are on the edge of a global meltdown ..

this is now a war , not with bombs and bullets but with goods , services and money.

i am at the lowest equity allocation of my life at about 20% .. coupled with the safety assets like treasuries and gold .

this is not a good time to think about growing richer , it’s more about not growing poorer now

 

[dilettante]

It sounds more like moderating wealth transfer from the working class.

 

[Matrix]

i am at the lowest equity allocation of my life at about 20% .. coupled with the safety assets like treasuries and gold .

this is not a good time to think about growing richer , it’s more about not growing poorer now

Only 20%? Then you have nothing to worry about. If my MSFT put option was assigned this Friday, I will be fully loaded. But no matter how bad it is, I believe 20% that drop is big enough to warrant a rebound before further decline. I may liquidate everything if the rebound was big enough. I know it's bad, but I won't panic sell no matter what.

 

[mathjak107]

Only 20%? Then you have nothing to worry about. If my MSFT put option was assigned this Friday, I will be fully loaded. But no matter how bad it is, I believe 20% that drop is big enough to warrant a rebound before further decline. I may liquidate everything if the rebound was big enough. I know it's bad, but I won't panic sell no matter what.

well this week saw a 100k drop for me because of the amount invested .
its like as we get older and develop bigger portfolios the percentages. can be small but the dollar drops can be huge .

a mere 7% drop would represent about a decade of maxing out a 401k at catchup .

when we are younger and starting out that same 7% can be a few months .

famous researcher michael kitces calls the period of time that runs from about 5-8 years pre retirement into about 5-8 years in retirement THE RED ZONE .

one should reduce equities down in the red zone because of the size effect of the portfolio, its when our fuel tanks are full .

so going in to the red zone kitces found 35-40% equities good .

and the same thru the red zone in retirement.

once you clear the red zone you can go back to 60/40 or so .

i cleared the red zone two years ago . so i was about 60/40 up until a few weeks ago when i didn’t like the situation and i reduced way down to 20% .

last year was a great year for me as one of my funds doubled over the last few years with multiple 6 figures in it .

so after a gain of 600k last year i figured i can sit a few months out at a low equity level and be just fine .

more typically i would be 40/60 now at age 72 but i am not comfortable under the current situation to go even that high

 

[mathjak107]

here is kitces article on the red zone glide path

it was the work of both kitces and dr wade pfau who came up with the glide path

they are two of the smartest retirement researchers today and their findings influence the entire financial planning industry

The Portfolio Size Effect And Optimal Equity Glidepaths

 

[Matrix]

The rebound is over. The market is in terrible shape, and a massive free fall wouldn’t be surprising. Tariffs have wrecked the market and are now dragging down the economy. Sadly, we’re all suffering from this self-inflicted disaster.

 

[Aunt Bea]

The worst thing for me is that this self inflicted disaster has shaken my confidence in what may come in the months ahead.

Still, it’s the only game in town and all we can do is try to adapt to this new reality.

 

[mathjak107]

yep key word is self inflicted .

it isn’t the natural business cycle at work here .

its pure manipulation by our leader .

you know he planned this playing out this way .

you can bet his wealthy buddies were buying as regular americans got scared and sold out at low prices