If you think we've seen the worst in the stock market

Myquest55 said:
I want to point out that all this fuss isn't just about the stock/bond markets. We have pissed off EVERYONE and it is affecting people's livelihoods. Our state of Maine relies heavily on the tourist industry. There have been several local news articles here about how so many people (mostly foreign) have canceled their summer reservations. One hotel owner in Ogunquit (beach town) is practically empty moving forward. We have seen several restaurants close around us too. "Our" arrogant attitude towards our allies is hurting a lot of people just trying to make a living.
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How much of that is due to the media igniting and whipping up fires of discontent?
 

I have worked in the mental health fields of health care most of my life and can recognize the variety of deviants behavior patterns quite easily!
 
This past couple of weeks has been the wildest ride, in the stock markets, that I can recall since 2008. The CBOE VIX reached over 55 last Friday, which is the highest in decades. Usually when it goes above 20, the markets are getting "shaky". Global "politics" and "common sense" appear to be at the opposite ends of the "spectrum".
 

As of 11:50 a/m 04/08/2025

Dow Jones Industrial Average
38,907.07
+2.48%
S&P 500
5,185.61
+2.44%
Nasdaq Composite
16,035.49
+2.77%
Russell 2000 Index
1,834.14
+1.33%
NYSE Composite
+17,717.44
 
Myquest55 said:
I want to point out that all this fuss isn't just about the stock/bond markets. We have pissed off EVERYONE and it is affecting people's livelihoods. Our state of Maine relies heavily on the tourist industry. There have been several local news articles here about how so many people (mostly foreign) have canceled their summer reservations. One hotel owner in Ogunquit (beach town) is practically empty moving forward. We have seen several restaurants close around us too. "Our" arrogant attitude towards our allies is hurting a lot of people just trying to make a living.
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I have read the same things as well. Trips to S.F., Yosemite, Las Vegas, and many tourist destinations are being cancelled at far greater rates than normal. Estimates range between 18 to 22 billion dollars of lost revenue from inbound international travel.
 
bobcat said:
I have read the same things as well. Trips to S.F., Yosemite, Las Vegas, and many tourist destinations are being cancelled at far greater rates than normal. Estimates range between 18 to 22 billion dollars of lost revenue from inbound international travel.
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Many Canadian snowbirds headed home early and are looking toward Mexico and the Caribbean for future winter travel.

If the tariffs hold there might be new business opportunities for Mexican and Canadian border towns. Tariff-free shops selling goods from China, India and other high tariff countries.
 
A financial plan that depends on the stock market going up every year, it is not realistic. People must plan for a down market at least once or twice every decade. Down markets can easily run to two years. Having cash and cash equivalent savings for those times is the only good way I know of to handle the problem.
 
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Brookswood said:
If your financial plan depends on the stock market going up every year, it is not realistic. People must plan for a down market at least once or twice every decade. Down markets can easily run to two years.
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no retirement plan calls for the markets going up unless someone made that up on their own .

a safe withdrawal is based on the absolute worst times we have had to date .

not even 2008 was anything like the worst of the worst which is what a safe withdrawal rate is based on .

those who retired in 1965 /1966 are the poster children for the worst time frame ever .

they were worse than the retiree who retired on the eve of the great depression

if we eliminated the half a dozen or so dates a safe withdrawal rate is based on , it would be 6-1/2% instead of 4%

many withdrawal methods are dynamic in how they work like the method we use called 95/5

each year on dec 31 you set goal posts of the higher of 4% of the balance or in a down year 5% less then you took the previous year …so balances matter but they sure don’t count on every year being up
 
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I will say I got a kick out of watching stocks on the TV at the gym on Monday when someone falsely claimed on Tik-Tok that the tariffs would be delayed and everyone and their brother picked up the news. Wall Street responded immediately. First time I've ever actually watched the DJIA in live time go from red to green (for a few seconds) and back to red after the claim was de-bunked.

Markets often react emotionally rather than objectively and this was a great example. It is why I've moved to more fixed-income investments recently. The emotion and the promises/untruths are going to reach record levels for the next 4 years. First time I've been so heavily out of the equities market in over 30 years.
 
rgp said:
Well, Ok we will need to suck-it-up for a few years , but I believe we can get back to when we were on top. @ one time nothing could compare to American made product quality. ................. And IMO we can get back to that.
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On top? The US has no divine right to be on top of the whole world in perpetuity.

There was a time when Britannia ruled the waves and was Top Nation.
Not anymore, but the Brits aren't whinging about past glories.

The US hegemony is now under threat and may not survive this global turmoil.
The Russian and the Chinese governments must be celebrating big time.
 
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seadoug said:
The DJIA futures are down another 1500 points going into Monday and we also have the following as a predictor.

UPDATED SUN, APR 6 20258:10 PM EDT

Nikkei 225 and Topix plunge 6% on open, futures trading suspended due to circuit breaker​

Here's the prediction for the Dow futures.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/06/business/stocks-futures-sunday-tariffs/index.html

Let's all just drink and dance around while we burn our 401k statements and use them to heat our homes.
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Yes. I called it Libation Day, not Liberation Day.
 
mathjak107 said:
you still don’t understand the difference between cause and effect . a rise in the cpi is the effect of not all but certain prices rising .

inflation is caused by other factors and we know this because the smartest people on the planet with nobel awards in economics have taught us so .

so i will leave it at that
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You are correct. There are several different causes for inflation.

From the Reserve Bank Of Australia, tasked with keeping inflation within optimum limits -

The main causes of inflation can be grouped into three broad categories:
  1. demand-pull,
  2. cost-push, and
  3. inflation expectations.
Full explanation here - Causes of Inflation | Explainer | Education
 
rgp said:
My stocks are down just now about $18,000 but I do believe it will come back, and since I just roll mine over [take no cash benefit] I'm buying now at a lower rate.
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If your total asset is >$1mollion, a $18K lost is not a big deal. But if your total asset is $100k...
 
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