U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, March 2025

Harry Le Hermit

Harry Le Hermit

Member
A stab at a discussion of foreign trade number, with a look at the U.S. trade deficit.
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, March 2025 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
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Obviously, the front loading of imports prior to impending tariffs, were a major reason for the negative GDP number, by about -1.3%.
Opinions...
  • I would expect the 2nd release later this month to reflect a downward revision.
  • A lot of talk about ship sailings decreasing, but that should be expected after the front loading. Even the Year over Year is currently down 10%, but very likely due to that front loading.
  • Most FTZs and Bonded Warehouses are much fuller than usual.
  • As the deficit acts as a drag on GDP, the 2nd quarter will be much improved, as that front loading has largely ended.
  • On the inflation front, I have read the effective tariff on all goods, is likely about 20% above one year ago. Coupled with a 6% decline in the USD, the likely impact is about an added 1.25% to inflation at 25% pass through, and 5% at 100% pass through. The consumer will decided the pass through rate.
 

he only reason we have a trade deficit is because we cause it , but that makes terrible political news . always easier to claim the world is cheating us. ha ha

the country has a gdp of 30 trillion dollars and we spend 31 trillion .

that difference is the trade deficit because we spend more pretend money then we produce .

so the country takes its credit card and buys what we can’t produce or produce at a lower price from other countries.

if you spend 30 trillion and not 31 trillion and the gdp is 30 trillion the trade deficit goes away .

as well as the trillion dollars japan buys in our debt with those dollars or. the 800 billion china buys in our debt is not part of the trade deficit numbers .

as well as only goods count .

america provides hundreds of billion in services around the world that we get paid for but that does not count in the deficit numbers .

.

politicians are idiots and hope we are too so we believe the crap they tell us.

that simple answer above isn’t my opinion it’s the teachings of jeffery sachs one of the top tier economists in the world
 

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"Winston Churchill once said if you put two economists in a room, you get two opinions, unless one of them is Lord Keynes, in which case you get three opinions."

It was always said that those that can... do. Those that can't... teach, or write articles about how their failures are the fault of everyone else.

We all have opinions and beliefs and some even attempt to deify certain individuals. That is the right of everyone. I have the right to a differing opinion.
 
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>>[mathjak] ...america provides hundreds of billion in services around the world that we get paid for but that does not count in the deficit numbers .>>

Very true, and something the media and doomsayers ignore. Trump's movie industry tariffs were panned yesterday as a bad idea, and the article pointed out that the US entertainment industry is classified as services, not GDP, and generated $300 BILLION in revenue.
 
Actually much of Hollywood has become enthusiastic about the prospect of tariffs on foreign movie and TV production. As with all of the tariffs it's about balance. Of course that enthusiasm tends to be among the workers and unions who had lost jobs in the race to the bottom. Not so much studios and owners.
 
Harry Le Hermit said:
The name of the report is literally Goods and Services. There is a significant trade deficit even with the inclusion of services. That trade deficit is a drag on GDP.
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actually the deficit is because we constantly spend more then we even produce .

no matter how much we grow gdp we still spend 1 to trillion more and that can only come from other countries .

if we are at 30 trillion we spend 31 to 32 trillion .

if we grow it to 32 we will still spend 33 to 34 .

that difference is pretty much our trade deficit .

but it makes lousy political news , much better just to blame others for what the govt does.

its never our fault .

the trade deficit is pretty much a meaningless number for so many reasons , including the fact the trillions of american dollars we spend come back to us invested in that debt we created.

the trillions dollars japan sends back here or the 800 billion china sends back here don’t count in the trade deficit numbers
 
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mathjak107 said:
the trade deficit is pretty much a meaningless number for so many reasons , including the fact the trillions of american dollars we spend come back to us invested in that debt we created.
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It is true the government found it advantageous to have foreign countries buy up our debt. It was effectively a currency manipulation that pushed up the dollar and made parity a thing of the past.

However, that largely ended in this century, as foreign entities found it was very advantageous to them to keep the dollar strong, which was of great benefit to their cross border trade.

These entities then started buying up U.S. dollarized assets internal to the USA, other than governmental debt. Effectively keeping the dollar artificially strong.

A net investment position for the USA went from a positive $6T, to now a negative -26T. That coring out of middle America is the result of this wink, wink, ignore the currency manipulation, lest the common folk realize what we did.
 
mathjak107 said:
except mine isn’t an opinion. it’s fact and backed up by the smartest phd , and nobel prize economists on the planet
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That "fact" is actually a collection of opinions. As the old adage goes... economists have predicted 11 of the last 5 recessions. Makes a great batting average, if it were baseball.
 
mathjak107 said:
this has nothing to do with predictions .

its fact as to how things work and what trade deficits are and represent
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If it were a fact, then there would be almost universal agreement, imo. Therefore, a reasonable expectation or prediction.

the point is the whole trade deficit thing is a lot of malarky
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I assume those economists agree the "whole trade deficit thing" is a lot of malarkey.
 
Harry Le Hermit said:
If it were a fact, then there would be almost universal agreement, imo. Therefore, a reasonable expectation or prediction.


I assume those economists agree the "whole trade deficit thing" is a lot of malarkey.
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for the most part yes .

i suggest you start listening to jeffery sachs who is one of the most renowned economists and harvard professors for starters.

he is one of the world experts on global trade and money and was an imf consultant
 
mathjak107 said:
i suggest you start listening to jeffery sachs who is one of the most renowned economists and harvard professors for starters.

he is one of the world experts on global trade and money and was an imf member
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I thought I already addressed this guy.
It was always said that those that can... do. Those that can't... teach, or write articles about how their failures are the fault of everyone else.
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Millennium Villages Project
 
The investor class who benefit from the race to the bottom are naturally going to have their noses out of joint. Anything getting in the way of the gravy train they've been on for decades is going to pinch, so they're going to squeal.

Even the pharma sector is ramping US production investment now, to get ahead of the next round of tariffs.

The alarmism is all politically motivated, which in turn is motivated by financial interest. Rebalancing the winners and losers in the economy will never go down easy with the one percent.
 
dilettante said:
The alarmism is all politically motivated
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Considering that politicians are in the pocket of the big financials... yes. However the alarmism is not without justification.

One overlooked aspect of the great recession, was the precipitous fall of the dollar and the knock on effect to the financial sector. The USD fell about 14%, but the difference between the sterling and pound was a 30% drop. While the sub-prime got the blame, the mark to market of exposure to U.S. assets, evaporated credit and required government bailouts.

That exposure to U.S. assets is significantly greater and the dollar is slipping. The financials are in a precarious position and therefore their servants... the politicians are in near hysteria.
 
I don't think anyone knows the ultimate impact, or whether we'll see a recession. But rebalancing the economy and securing a safe defense position in critical materials and production doesn't seem possible without going through a period of adjustment.

What we do know is that the process of reindustrialization has begun. That means jobs, national security, and more inputs into social safety nets - even Social Security.

Demographic trends have already shrunk the labor force. We need to get more out of those workers, and that means moving away from mercantilism and shining each other's shoes.
 

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