The Future of Work

VaughanJB

VaughanJB

Scrappy VIP
There are a couple questions that I spend a lot of time thinking about, and this is one. My work days are done, but having worked in tech for pretty much my whole working life, the one thing I know for sure is that the pace of change is quickening, and anything you can point to today, and in the past, is subject to change. In short, my life experience of working won't be the way young people day experience their working lives. There is simply too much change, skills are different, expectations are different.

The economy today is showing us this time and again. Sure, when thinking about the economy we listen to the numbers our governments publish and act as though it's the whole story, yet I know it's not. Many people didn't realize this until they suddenly found themselves unable to find a home, have food, and so on.

We now have a gig economy, and that can be a brutal experience. We have minimum wages that haven't kept up with inflation, so we have the working poor. We have the working poor before, of course, but it's far worse now. When you're working a full week and having to live in your car, something is broken.

So I ponder this question. Today I needed a taxi. I picked up my home phone and dialed the number. I got an automated voice when I used to get a person. Once the taxi was booked I had my ride and paid, plus a tip. I then got alerted that actually, picking up a phone and calling was old school, the small time taxi service I use has an app now for your Smartphone. I downloaded it and the app is like Uber. Not only no need for that person answering the phone, but no need for a call at all. The app shows where you are, and where taxis are around me, giving me the length of time before they get to my home. And so on.

Anyway - the reason I'm posting this is because I just watched a very good documentary on the topic and I wanted to share. It's on Youtube, and if you're interested it lasts a little under an hour. There is likely no good reason for anyone here to watch it, we're all retired of close to it. But it does give insight into what younger folk have to prepare for - a radically different work force.

 

It may just be in my location, but I get "Video unavailable." I copied the URL and pasted it into a new window, but still couldn't get a working video.

Without the video, I still see most of your points.

I would be concerned about downloading the taxi app that showed my exact location without knowing the safety of it.
 
Didn't have time to watch the video, but I've been pondering the future of work for some time. Once robots gradually take over the work force and even blue collar and white collar jobs, how will we earn money. It has been proposed that a universal basic income be provided to help with the situation, but I just don't see it as being enough, and furthermore, where will that money come from.

Whether we figure out a solution or not, it is happening, and it will upend the society that depends on those jobs. Before long robots will be in every segment of society including construction, manufacturing, healthcare, finances, food services, transportation, education, and almost everywhere else. It's like a Tsunami that is going to hit us, and I fear we are not prepared for it.

I had a wild thought though. What if every household had a robot (or many), and sent them off to work to earn money that was paid to the owner. It's crazy, but what other options do we have.

Here is what's coming (Not the dancing, but the dexterity that can be adapted to so many things), along with AI that can not only learn, but can transfer that new knowledge to other robots.

 
bobcat said:
Didn't have time to watch the video, but I've been pondering the future of work for some time. Once robots gradually take over the work force and even blue collar and white collar jobs, how will we earn money. It has been proposed that a universal basic income be provided to help with the situation, but I just don't see it as being enough, and furthermore, where will that money come from.

Whether we figure out a solution or not, it is happening, and it will upend the society that depends on those jobs. Before long robots will be in every segment of society including construction, manufacturing, healthcare, finances, food services, transportation, education, and almost everywhere else. It's like a Tsunami that is going to hit us, and I fear we are not prepared for it.

I had a wild thought though. What if every household had a robot (or many), and sent them off to work to earn money that was paid to the owner. It's crazy, but what other options do we have.

Here is what's coming (Not the dancing, but the dexterity that can be adapted to so many things), along with AI that can not only learn, but can transfer that new knowledge to other robots.
Click to expand...

Thank you, for this. It depends how one defines the problem. The bigger question truly is, how are we going to survive as humans, when the working life we all know is obsolete? I think there will be civil unrest. It's not just robotics, it's the fundamental change technology brings. Not to mention, human mindset. The current generation should, rightfully, expect equal, if not better outcomes than the past. What happens when that is not the case?
 
VaughanJB said:
Thank you, for this. It depends how one defines the problem. The bigger question truly is, how are we going to survive as humans, when the working life we all know is obsolete? I think there will be civil unrest. It's not just robotics, it's the fundamental change technology brings. Not to mention, human mindset. The current generation should, rightfully, expect equal, if not better outcomes than the past. What happens when that is not the case?
Click to expand...
As someone who worked within the so-called "gig economy" years ago, I can imagine some of the difficulties and profound questions. For three or four generations, technology's development was an easy psychological sell: you won't have to work in such a grinding (and possibly physically dangerous) way; and, you'll have more leisure time to relax and enjoy life.

No matter how the Elon Musks of the world attempt to spin this change to the public, I can't detect any genuine humane or benevolent consideration guiding the process. I can't help feeling realistic expectations are more like what you've described and suggested, VaughanJB. The economic gulf between "winners" (who will be relatively few) and "losers" will probably be extremely great. Many people already seem driven to substance abuse by their circumstances.

I'm not certain that there's no hope. But the question remains: how can citizens of good will minimize the horrendous possible effects?
 
Last edited:
Work has been evolving for many years. I guess I was a pioneer in working remotely, but my boss allowed me to move to Dallas and work from home over 19 years ago. I was managing a sales force and traveling quite a bit and she acknowledged I could do that from anywhere.

Our headquarters in Seattle closed in 2020 during Covid and very few workers have gone back. Most are now remote. This was always especially true for our IT team. Not only did our management realize an open concept office wasn't a good idea during a pandemic, they also learned it is more cost-effective not to pay for physical office space.

My biggest concerns are AI taking jobs and, even more so, the lack of young people willing to study trades. This will lead to a significant dearth in electricians, plumbers and general repairmen. We are a bit sheltered in Texas because we have a large Hispanic population and many are absolute experts in these fields, along with building, landscaping, etc.

Also, 57% of Gen Z'ers aspire to be "influencers", which is a major concern as well.
 
bobcat said:
I had a wild thought though. What if every household had a robot (or many), and sent them off to work to earn money that was paid to the owner. It's crazy, but what other options do we have.

Here is what's coming (Not the dancing, but the dexterity that can be adapted to so many things), along with AI that can not only learn, but can transfer that new knowledge to other robots.

Click to expand...
This 2024 Netflix scifi deals with that.
On Netflix
Atlas is a 2024 American science fiction action film

Plot
In the year 2043, humanoid artificial intelligence terrorist Harlan leads a war of machines against humans, which leaves 3 million people dead. The military forces of a new International Coalition of Nations (ICN) win a string of victories against Harlan and force him to flee into outer space.

Atlas (2024 film) - Wikipedia
 
seadoug said:
Work has been evolving for many years. I guess I was a pioneer in working remotely, but my boss allowed me to move to Dallas and work from home over 19 years ago. I was managing a sales force and traveling quite a bit and she acknowledged I could do that from anywhere.
Click to expand...

I think Covid-19 exposed the lie of people coming together into a single space for improved performance. I, myself, managed staff, but was driven by performance to to goal I set, rather than anything else. Even from a corporate financial level, coming together in an office in London makes no financial sense.

That said, the profits - or benefits - of that, won't be realized by the workers, but will be soaked up by the corps involved.
 
VaughanJB said:
I think Covid-19 exposed the lie of people coming together into a single space for improved performance. I, myself, managed staff, but was driven by performance to to goal I set, rather than anything else. Even from a corporate financial level, coming together in an office in London makes no financial sense.

That said, the profits - or benefits - of that, won't be realized by the workers, but will be soaked up by the corps involved.
Click to expand...
Going a bit off topic, but the idea of an open concept was to have employees interact and share ideas. Instead, when I visited the office employees had their headphones on so they could drown out the noise and their noses in their computers so management would think they were working.
 
seadoug said:
Going a bit off topic, but the idea of an open concept was to have employees interact and share ideas. Instead, when I visited the office employees had their headphones on so they could drown out the noise and their noses in their computers so management would think they were working.
Click to expand...

Grrrr.

You make a good point. Forget all else, the cell phone (smartphone) introduced a level of intrusion that meant keeping things focused solely on work obsolete.

The fact is, the world is a very different place today than when we were young.
 
One of the biggest changes to the world of work is the consolidation of tasks and responsibilities.
More and more what used to be up to the manager to decide is being pushed down to the level of everyday employees.
This accounts for the burnout and the lack of desire to work.

Computers have contributed to the problem. Now people can work in complete isolation from others. I worked with other people in my career and we had fun discussing the problems at work and sharing how we dealt with things. That's how you learn. Learning and interaction was the only reward to working.

A woman who I used to work with has a job in a credit union now. She's a teller in a branch but she has to know how to do at least 17 different banking procedures including selling loans. That job pays $15.00/hr. and a small commission on the loan sales.

How motivated do you need to be to do that job?
 
JBR said:
Could you explain a little?
Click to expand...
Exactly what I said. Gig work has gotten a bad rap. All of mine were between 2-5 years and strictly production based. No benefits, my scheduling was my own as long as I delivered which I did. I applied for the first one. The rest looked for me. Different set of actual laws compared to in-house most of the time. Then I got recruited by a friend then by a former manager. The cheerleading, sway wearing, soul bearing meetings is not for a competitive introvert with twenty years of experience. Well, it paid well while it lasted. Now the occasional helping out for giggles keeps my fangs sharp:)
 
  • Like
Reactions: JBR
seadoug said:
Going a bit off topic, but the idea of an open concept was to have employees interact and share ideas. Instead, when I visited the office employees had their headphones on so they could drown out the noise and their noses in their computers so management would think they were working.
Click to expand...
It took an hour to make it from lunch room to desk in the morning.
 
Twostep said:
Exactly what I said. Gig work has gotten a bad rap. All of mine were between 2-5 years and strictly production based. No benefits, my scheduling was my own as long as I delivered which I did. I applied for the first one. The rest looked for me. Different set of actual laws compared to in-house most of the time. Then I got recruited by a friend then by a former manager. The cheerleading, sway wearing, soul bearing meetings is not for a competitive introvert with twenty years of experience. Well, it paid well while it lasted. Now the occasional helping out for giggles keeps my fangs sharp:)
Click to expand...
I appreciate what you've written here. Thanks. What you wrote before was pretty vague, I thought.
 
I think everyone realizes that the days of making a living by screwing a bolt onto screw #23b in a Ford Truck factory, are on their way out. I'm not sure what the future will be, but we've had massive changes to our economy before. Mass production employed many, but drove out craftsmen. Machines can say "yes" or "no", but only humans can say "maybe". I think human's ability to make decisions that aren't just yes/no is where we will be employed.
 
OldFeller said:
One of the biggest changes to the world of work is the consolidation of tasks and responsibilities.
More and more what used to be up to the manager to decide is being pushed down to the level of everyday employees.
This accounts for the burnout and the lack of desire to work.

Computers have contributed to the problem. Now people can work in complete isolation from others. I worked with other people in my career and we had fun discussing the problems at work and sharing how we dealt with things. That's how you learn. Learning and interaction was the only reward to working.

A woman who I used to work with has a job in a credit union now. She's a teller in a branch but she has to know how to do at least 17 different banking procedures including selling loans. That job pays $15.00/hr. and a small commission on the loan sales.

How motivated do you need to be to do that job?
Click to expand...
Big banks paid 20-25 across the board for tellers in 2023.
 
fuzzybuddy said:
Machines can say "yes" or "no", but only humans can say "maybe". I think human's ability to make decisions that aren't just yes/no is where we will be employed.
Click to expand...

This is no longer the case. We're at the beginning of the AI revolution, but systems are going to be able to work out the "maybe" instances without missing a beat. The AI revolution is going to wipe out many jobs. Stockbroking, logistics, and design are all in serious trouble. When I think of my own career in IT, I know that there isn't much space to move into my footsteps - coders, systems management, resource planning, and so on - it's all going to swept away.

It is what is left in its wake that concerns me. We already have moved into a global economy increasingly run by oligarchs. Not only that, but the process is increasing in pace. Manufacturing is not the answer. Manufacturing is - relatively - low skilled, and low paid. That is not the future. In fact, in my own fictional vision of the future, I can see recent inflation and price increases to be part of a move to herd workers to accepting something, anything, in their desperation. Perhaps even low paid manufacturing jobs? It's a grand design.

My worry comes when I think about young folk starting out. I had to learn a skill, and then use that skill to further myself. I never stopped learning in my working years, change was constant. That said, the paradigm of the new ideas and tasks were the same. You learned a skill, and that was the bedrock to progression. That way of being is going to go away. Instead of a bedrock of skills, workers are going to standing on the moving sands of change. Entire roles might disappear in a matter of years.

I also struggle somewhat because the required skills won't be something akin to learning AI. There is no learning AI. And all the while you're planning for the future, it's changing. It's both fascinating and frightening. We, humans, won't be able to compete with AI's efficiency.
 
I keep grappling with prospect of millions of jobs going the way of the dinosaur and a considerable percentage of the populus being unplugged from the workforce. If the nine-to-five world takes a powder, where does that leave us? Do we have viable alternatives that makes sense?

Somehow, I just can't see how a UBI of $1,000 a month is going to stave off a $4,000 a month house payment, let alone all the other "luxuries" like food and the eventual pair of socks because the washer decided to eat one.
Color me a gift-horse skeptic, but I have a perpetual distrust of anyone who says they are giving me a free "anything", Not to mention placing the future welfare of mankind in the hands of Big Tech.

IDK, maybe it's fortuitous that society is falling out of love with the work model just as robots are poised to grab the baton as work gradually disappears from our lives. I really hope I'm wrong, and there is no apocalypse of homelessness. Can we really delegate the vast majority of our work to intelligent, self-supervising machines? Then what comes next for humanity? Will we just become a nation of retired people?

The problem with long term thinking is like long term weather forecasting, only with weather, it may just ruin your picnic, but in the case of robots disrupting how society provides for itself, it may result in disaster. I guess there is always fear of the unknown, and maybe that's the way it has always been, and we just have to figure it out as we go.
 

You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top