Progressives should care that the global population is set to fall
Just about everywhere you look, birth rates are collapsing.
Many demographers thought that the global population would stabilize around mid-century. But thatās now looking increasingly unlikely. Instead, the worldās population is expected to actually start shrinking worldwide this century, potentially as soon as 2060.
You might wonder: Whatās the big deal? Wouldnāt fewer people mean fewer demands on resources, more space and opportunity for everyone else?
But the economics of population donāt work this way. An aging and shrinking population means a massive decrease in expected quality of life in the future. It means a smaller working population will be supporting a larger elderly population. It means there will be fewer people to do all of the things that donāt technically need to be done, but that make life richer and more interesting. And a shrinking population doesnāt represent a one-time adjustment, but a dimming state of affairs that will continue to degrade until something reverses it.
Surely, though, this would still be better for the environment, right? No. Richer societies are better positioned to combat climate change, and while we have been headed in the right direction, with rich countriesā per capita emissions falling rapidly over the last decade, that progress would be likely to reverse in a fiscally overburdened, rapidly shrinking society. In many ways, the most environmentally destructive civilizations in our history were the poorer, early industrial ones, and returning to that state shouldnāt be heralded as a good sign for the environment.
But this looming demographic crisis, one every bit as real and serious as climate change itself, has been met so far with significant ambivalence, if not outright denial.