Harry Le Hermit
Member
Just to repeat, the numbers include SERVICES.
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, April 2025 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Much is made about the drop in imports and the enormous drop in the deficit, but those are month over month changes. January through March were extremely high numbers, due to front loading.
The $351B of imports for April is up from the $338.2B of April, 2024. As the front loading of January through March was so high, it is highly likely that those excess in goods were being worked through in April. So really no major changes, regarding inflation.
For those that quote the Atlanta FED as gospel, their numbers currently are 3.8% annualized. A word of caution, as those numbers are likely to be as far off, to the upside, as their last quarter projections were off to the downside. Generally, a 1%~2.4% annualized, is more realistic.
As for inflation, the range of projections for May is 2.3%~2.4%. For those desperate to see the tariffs impact inflation, current June range of inflation projection is 2.5%~2.7%.
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, April 2025 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Much is made about the drop in imports and the enormous drop in the deficit, but those are month over month changes. January through March were extremely high numbers, due to front loading.
The $351B of imports for April is up from the $338.2B of April, 2024. As the front loading of January through March was so high, it is highly likely that those excess in goods were being worked through in April. So really no major changes, regarding inflation.
For those that quote the Atlanta FED as gospel, their numbers currently are 3.8% annualized. A word of caution, as those numbers are likely to be as far off, to the upside, as their last quarter projections were off to the downside. Generally, a 1%~2.4% annualized, is more realistic.
As for inflation, the range of projections for May is 2.3%~2.4%. For those desperate to see the tariffs impact inflation, current June range of inflation projection is 2.5%~2.7%.
