U.S. pump prices and projections

WhatInThe said:
They say a refinery fire in Texas yesterday might have helped cause a jump in oil price. Any events/news that could lead to a supply disruption could affect the price.
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Yes, it will. That fire was at a Valero refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, one of the largest facilities in the nation, producing 300 - 500 thousand gallons of oil per day.
 
Pump Prices for gasoline are still rising in some area, most notably California. In other areas it seems to be holding steady.
Pump Prices for diesel are following the same pattern, although a slight dip is noted in some states.

Yes, Valero refinery in Port Arthur is currently shutdown. It daily produces approximately 220K bpd gasoline; 140K of distillate; 50K of jet fuel; with the rest for various other products. How much is for domestic and how much for export is beyond my powers.
 
Ever so slight dip in national average of gasoline. Diesel seems to be nearing a plateau. Kansas had been the low gasoline average, but that crown now goes to Oklahoma.

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PADD #5, which includes California, has seen a dip in Crude stocks, while refined product inventories are remaining steady, per EIA report of 3-25.
 
Yesterday, I noticed my Sunoco station pushed up their price to $3.99 per gallon. I only use Sunoco gas, but the other station my wife uses, which is Exxon was $3.79 per gallon.
 
Millions of people are currently facing acute hunger and "grocery supply emergencies" due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz as of March 2026. The United Nations has warned that the number of people facing acute hunger could reach record levels this year if the conflict persists.
 
MACKTEXAS said:
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Market closing for DOW, 03/27/26
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Have less than a week if bargain hunting because speculation right or wrong will drive the market closer to the latest deadline.

Bought one oil company at the begining of the virus for 4 bucks and eventually went over 30 a year later for a while It's paying dividends so I'm keeping it for now.

Hopefully no one has to cash out right now although there is tax selling now so investors can pay their taxes.
 
WhatInThe said:
Have less than a week if bargain hunting because speculation right or wrong will drive the market closer to the latest deadline.

Bought one oil company at the begining of the virus for 4 bucks and eventually went over 30 a year later for a while It's paying dividends so I'm keeping it for now.

Hopefully no one has to cash out right now although there is tax selling now so investors can pay their taxes.
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I have no stock - I just monitor the market as it reflects investors' concerns about the current state of affairs.

Yes, the standard advice is not to panic sell. Best wishes for your investments.
 
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The national average continues to edge up, but is largely due to California's rather unique situation regarding imports, type of crude imports, etc.
 
There is significant betting activity on whether the U.S. will launch a ground invasion of Iran, primarily through decentralized prediction markets. As of late March 2026, these markets show a high volume of trades and fluctuating probabilities for U.S. ground forces entering Iran.

Current Betting Odds and Markets
The most active platform for these wagers is Polymarket, where millions of dollars have been traded on various conflict-related outcomes.
  • Implied Probabilities (as of March 30, 2026):
    • Short-term (by March 31): Traders see an imminent ground invasion as unlikely, with the "Yes" odds sitting at approximately 5% to 6%.
    • Medium-term (by April 30): The probability rises sharply to 71%, suggesting a strong market expectation for a ground incursion in the coming month.
    • Long-term (before 2027): Traders assign a 64.5% to 79% chance of U.S. forces entering Iran within the year.
I'm inclined to believe that there will be a ground invasion in the next few weeks considering the latest troop movement into the region.
 
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RambleTamble said:
There is significant betting activity on whether the U.S. will launch a ground invasion of Iran, primarily through decentralized prediction markets. As of late March 2026, these markets show a high volume of trades and fluctuating probabilities for U.S. ground forces entering Iran.

Current Betting Odds and Markets
The most active platform for these wagers is Polymarket, where millions of dollars have been traded on various conflict-related outcomes.
  • Implied Probabilities (as of March 30, 2026):
    • Short-term (by March 31): Traders see an imminent ground invasion as unlikely, with the "Yes" odds sitting at approximately 5% to 6%.
    • Medium-term (by April 30): The probability rises sharply to 71%, suggesting a strong market expectation for a ground incursion in the coming month.
    • Long-term (before 2027): Traders assign a 64.5% to 79% chance of U.S. forces entering Iran within the year.
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This is not a criticism of your comment or source, just a statement of how I felt as I read it. Human lives are at stake, but for traders, it's just a matter of how much money they could gain or lose.
 
MACKTEXAS said:
This is not a criticism of your comment or source, just a statement of how I felt as I read it. Human lives are at stake, but for traders, it's just a matter of how much money they could gain or lose.
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People bet on everything these days, thanks to legalized online betting. It's always been the case that people bet on macabre events, but never to this extent. Legalized online betting is one of the worst things to happen to society in a long time. Anything for a buck these days.

EDIT: I posted that because it could influence the behavior of our military. If somebody can make a lot of money off something, it's more likely to occur.
 
RambleTamble said:
People bet on everything these days, thanks to legalized online betting. It's always been the case that people bet on macabre events, but never to this extent. Legalized online betting is one of the worst things to happen to society in a long time. Anything for a buck these days.

EDIT: I posted that because it could influence the behavior of our military. If somebody can make a lot of money off something, it's more likely to occur.
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Yes, I understood it.
I believe a ground invastion is imminent but I have no guess as to exactly when.
 
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