2026 Social Security COLA Prediction

One of the few places where I'm not seeing any inflation is at the pump. At least around here. Today regular unleaded can be had for as low as $2.38 per gallon at the cheaper places. When adjusted for inflation that's cheaper than it was when I first started driving in 1963.
 

Trade said:
One of the few places where I'm not seeing any inflation is at the pump. At least around here. Today regular unleaded can be had for as low as $2.38 per gallon at the cheaper places. When adjusted for inflation that's cheaper than it was when I first started driving in 1963.
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I’m wondering if gas prices may tick up a bit.

I saw on the news that the federal government may purchase a million gallons to begin restoring the Strategic Petroleum Reserves at the same time they are encouraging boycotts on Russian oil.

I’m fortunate that I only fill up three or four times a year but the price of oil does have an impact on almost everything that we buy.

Good news or bad news we always seem to adapt and keep going.
 
GaryUSA said:
In my email yesterday fron the SSA:

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Be Prepared to View Your New Benefit Amount with a Personal my Social Security Account​

75 million Americans will receive a 2.8 percent increase in their Social Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments in 2026.​


​

​
Who will receive a COLA notice?
Cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) notices will be sent to retirement, survivor, and disability beneficiaries, SSI recipients, and representative payees.
Take action by November 19 to view your new benefit amount online
Starting in late November, you may be able to securely view and save your Social Security COLA notice within your personal my Social Security account.
Log in to or create an account and edit your Communication & Notification Preferences to receive secure online notices, up to three weeks earlier than by mail.
What are the benefits of a personal my Social Security account?
A personal my Social Security account comes with a wide range of benefits that make managing your information easier and more secure. Many important notifications — such as the COLA notice and the 1099 and 1042S benefit statements — are available online. You don’t have to wait for them to arrive by mail or worry about them getting lost.
With your account, you can also request a replacement Social Security card, check the status of a claim, update your address, and set up or change your direct deposit information. And that’s just the beginning. New features are added regularly to enhance your experience. Log in to or create your account today and take the next step toward going digital with Social Security​

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I caught this statement when I read the email this morning: Starting in late November, you may be able to securely view and save

May be able to? Goes to show how screwed up things are right now. The letters will probably arrive sometime in January.
 
Aunt Bea said:
I’m wondering if gas prices may tick up a bit.

I saw on the news that the federal government may purchase a million gallons to begin restoring the Strategic Petroleum Reserves at the same time they are encouraging boycotts on Russian oil.

I’m fortunate that I only fill up three or four times a year but the price of oil does have an impact on almost everything that we buy.

Good news or bad news we always seem to adapt and keep going.
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The purchase is probably a million bbl/day, but that's not what the articles say. Normally buying a million bbl is not newsworthy.
 
GaryUSA said:
In my email yesterday fron the SSA:

​
​

Be Prepared to View Your New Benefit Amount with a Personal my Social Security Account​

75 million Americans will receive a 2.8 percent increase in their Social Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments in 2026.​

​
​
Who will receive a COLA notice?
Cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) notices will be sent to retirement, survivor, and disability beneficiaries, SSI recipients, and representative payees.
Take action by November 19 to view your new benefit amount online
Starting in late November, you may be able to securely view and save your Social Security COLA notice within your personal my Social Security account.
Log in to or create an account and edit your Communication & Notification Preferences to receive secure online notices, up to three weeks earlier than by mail.
What are the benefits of a personal my Social Security account?
A personal my Social Security account comes with a wide range of benefits that make managing your information easier and more secure. Many important notifications — such as the COLA notice and the 1099 and 1042S benefit statements — are available online. You don’t have to wait for them to arrive by mail or worry about them getting lost.
With your account, you can also request a replacement Social Security card, check the status of a claim, update your address, and set up or change your direct deposit information. And that’s just the beginning. New features are added regularly to enhance your experience. Log in to or create your account today and take the next step toward going digital with Social Security​
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I got that email Gary. I also got another one from SSA but didn't open it yet. I don't wait to get the new benefit statement because I do my budget projections three months in advance (so now I'm doing Nov, Dec & Jan). It's easy enough to figure out what my new amount will be. I will net $21 considering the Medicare increase.

HoneyNut said:
I wonder if even that would be enough. I've figured out that the 2.8% is going to cover my increases for Medicare part B, and part D, and my condo fee increase, but doesn't cover the expected increase in the Medicare supplement Plan G or any other increases such as food, electricity, insurance, property taxes, etc.

I wonder what my actual inflation rate is, I guess I'll need to do a budget for next year and compare to this year. I've been trying to follow the "4% rule" on spending, but if my real inflation is much higher than the official inflation, then the 4% rule about compensating for inflation each year is going to leave me farther behind each year. Or would the 4% rule work if I adjust by my own personal inflation amount (if I can figure that out).
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If my memory serves me correctly Honeynut, William Bengen, the man who originally came up with the 4% rule now says it's obsolete.
William Bengen - Wikipedia
 
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HoneyNut said:
I wonder if even that would be enough. I've figured out that the 2.8% is going to cover my increases for Medicare part B, and part D, and my condo fee increase, but doesn't cover the expected increase in the Medicare supplement Plan G or any other increases such as food, electricity, insurance, property taxes, etc.

I wonder what my actual inflation rate is, I guess I'll need to do a budget for next year and compare to this year. I've been trying to follow the "4% rule" on spending, but if my real inflation is much higher than the official inflation, then the 4% rule about compensating for inflation each year is going to leave me farther behind each year. Or would the 4% rule work if I adjust by my own personal inflation amount (if I can figure that out).
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The 4% rule is about making your retirement nest egg last so you never run out of money but it does not mean that the annual withdrawal will be enough to cover your annual expenses as costs rise.

I would use it as a guide but IMO it would be dangerous to increase your draw to meet your expenses instead of reducing expenses to remain comfortably within your income.

Some financial planners believe that 4% is already too high and that 3% is more realistic others feel a safe withdrawal rate is 5-6%.

It really depends on the investments, economy, your health and time horizon, lifestyle, etc…

Good luck!
 
Planned to retire at age 55 but thru good fortune & that planning I was able to retire at age 54.

Soc. Sec. going to go away scare tactics even back then meant the planning had to exclude Soc. Sec. Pleasantly surprised when it didn't go away & we were set up with a health care plan with zero cost for PCP & specialists. Toss in only paying copay for recently prescribed Eliquis @$130.00 for a 100 day supply. Even that is no cost since my retirement package includes a HSA that pays for any out of pocket expenses like hospital emergency room visits & meds.

We are better off than so many & grateful that we are.
 

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