A false dichotomy, if the Coronavirus cannot be completely eliminated

grahamg

grahamg

Old codger
Location
South of Manchester, UK
It is my belief a false dichotomy has been put forward so far as the "elimination" of this pandemic virus infection.

If lockdown, and social distancing cannot ever rid the world of the virus, or stop it coming back again after levels of deaths and infection rates fall, and the lockdown is relaxed, then all that can be achieved by the unparalleled economic virtual standstill, (or 30%/40% loss in GDP anyway), is a process whereby the world learns to live with the virus, at least until a truly effective vaccine has been found, and then rolled out across the entire world.

Lockdown does not equal defeating this virus therefore, only ever controlling rates of infection, and therefore arguments as to whether you want to die a terrible death as a result of the virus, or want to see others die in a similar way, are not dealing with the reality of the situation. Deaths will continue, maybe ameliorated somewhat by improved therapies for those infected as more is learnt, but nothing more than that is possible.
 

I just read a history of the Spanish Flu. The second wave in the fall of that year was made worse because doctors were advising the public to take mega doses of aspirin. Turns out aspirin poisoning caused a similar effect on the lungs as the flu did. Interesting. Maybe it would help to stay off OTC meds so your body isn't working to rid itself of the toxins from Advil, aspirin, and Tylenol while fighting the virus.
 
grahamg said:
It is my belief a false dichotomy has been put forward so far as the "elimination" of this pandemic virus infection.

If lockdown, and social distancing cannot ever rid the world of the virus, or stop it coming back again after levels of deaths and infection rates fall, and the lockdown is relaxed, then all that can be achieved by the unparalleled economic virtual standstill, (or 30%/40% loss in GDP anyway), is a process whereby the world learns to live with the virus, at least until a truly effective vaccine has been found, and then rolled out across the entire world.

Lockdown does not equal defeating this virus therefore, only ever controlling rates of infection, and therefore arguments as to whether you want to die a terrible death as a result of the virus, or want to see others die in a similar way, are not dealing with the reality of the situation. Deaths will continue, maybe ameliorated somewhat by improved therapies for those infected as more is learnt, but nothing more than that is possible.
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I'd love to argue this, but I can't! Very real!
 

Initially I was so on board about quarantining which medical experts told us in early March would flatten the curve and we'd all get out by the end of April. Happily we relinquished our freedoms. Day by day the story changed. Well the curve isn't flattening as we expected. Let's close everything non essential. Shelter in place. Just Stay Home! And restrictions will lift in May. By early April, No this isn't enough. We must impose a curfew. And you should wear masks if you must go out for groceries etc. We hope to reopen by June or July. Wearily people surrendered yet more of their few remaining freedoms. By mid April. We're nearing the peak we think the curve is going to flatten, there are fewer new cases. But we're going to double down on restrictions. And then came the cherry on the parfait - you really can't go out again until we have a vaccine and that's two years away.

Good luck trying to get your rights back now that we've got 'em. We scared you good and it worked. And the sad thing is many people no longer even want to go out because they're so buying into this and that was just what they wanted in the first place.
 
chic said:
Initially I was so on board about quarantining which medical experts told us in early March would flatten the curve and we'd all get out by the end of April. Happily we relinquished our freedoms. Day by day the story changed. Well the curve isn't flattening as we expected. Let's close everything non essential. Shelter in place. Just Stay Home! And restrictions will lift in May. By early April, No this isn't enough. We must impose a curfew. And you should wear masks if you must go out for groceries etc. We hope to reopen by June or July. Wearily people surrendered yet more of their few remaining freedoms. By mid April. We're nearing the peak we think the curve is going to flatten, there are fewer new cases. But we're going to double down on restrictions. And then came the cherry on the parfait - you really can't go out again until we have a vaccine and that's two years away.

Good luck trying to get your rights back now that we've got 'em. We scared you good and it worked. And the sad thing is many people no longer even want to go out because they're so buying into this and that was just what they wanted in the first place.
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This did not happen in my state. I don“t understand the loss of freedom thing so I wish you would be more specific. What freedoms were lost? What rights were lost? Wearing a mask turns out to be no big deal, like I thought it would be.

A lot of us stay home mostly anyway. I miss the restaurants which are reopening now. But I doubt I’ll go, I’ve lost weight-a good thing. I miss moves but didn't go that much. Anyway, my freedom and rights were never lost, sorry yours were.
 
chic said:
Initially I was so on board about quarantining which medical experts told us in early March would flatten the curve and we'd all get out by the end of April. Happily we relinquished our freedoms. Day by day the story changed. Well the curve isn't flattening as we expected. Let's close everything non essential. Shelter in place. Just Stay Home! And restrictions will lift in May. By early April, No this isn't enough. We must impose a curfew. And you should wear masks if you must go out for groceries etc. We hope to reopen by June or July. Wearily people surrendered yet more of their few remaining freedoms. By mid April. We're nearing the peak we think the curve is going to flatten, there are fewer new cases. But we're going to double down on restrictions. And then came the cherry on the parfait - you really can't go out again until we have a vaccine and that's two years away.

Good luck trying to get your rights back now that we've got 'em. We scared you good and it worked. And the sad thing is many people no longer even want to go out because they're so buying into this and that was just what they wanted in the first place.
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Your city/state has a curfew? Wow!!!
No curfew here and CA is among the most rigorous with regard to shut-downs, masks and social distancing rules.
 
I did a search for curfews in the U.S. and didn't find any. I did find one mention, dated April 6, saying that the mayor of Boston suggested a curfew between 9 PM and 6 AM. Suggested, not enforced. Or are there actually curfews in place?

Another participant in this discussion was lamenting the loss of his Constitutional rights. When I asked , "What rights have you lost?" he replied along the lines of, "Well, not in my state, but others have."

I think there is an awful lot of latent hysteria on this subject. Remember "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself?" Maybe right now, the only thing we have to fear is the virus itself. Not the big, bad liberals trying to take anyone's rights away. :rolleyes:
 
Sunny said:
I did a search for curfews in the U.S. and didn't find any. I did find one mention, dated April 6, saying that the mayor of Boston suggested a curfew between 9 PM and 6 AM. Suggested, not enforced. Or are there actually curfews in place?

Another participant in this discussion was lamenting the loss of his Constitutional rights. When I asked , "What rights have you lost?" he replied along the lines of, "Well, not in my state, but others have."

I think there is an awful lot of latent hysteria on this subject. Remember "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself?" Maybe right now, the only thing we have to fear is the virus itself. Not the big, bad liberals trying to take anyone's rights away. :rolleyes:
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Well, I am a liberal, but liberals give more rights IMO they are not interested in taking any ones rights away. I too have asked that question and never get an answer, about what rights and freedoms has someone lost.
 
I have only dealt with government-imposed curfews twice. Both times they were comforting and appropriate.

The first came exactly 18 years ago today, immediately after the not-guilty verdict in the trial for the police who beat Rodney King. That curfew was more than welcome as clergy, police, national guard, politicians, and others (including Rodney King himself) tried to settle down our riot-torn city. Leaders certainly didn't need to worry about more areas exploding.

The second was immediately after the Northridge earthquake, January 1994. Many of our houses were so damaged that we were camping out on our lawns. Thousands - or tens of thousands - of families were extremely vulnerable, so the dusk to dawn curfew in our immediate area was more than welcome.

Both curfews were short-lived, only lasting until the crises were over. Life returned to normal - or as normal possible given the emotional and physical wreckage that Los Angeles needed to address.

Both crises were painful, expensive and difficult to endure, but they brought tremendous positive changes to our area.
 
Sunny said:
I did a search for curfews in the U.S. and didn't find any. I did find one mention, dated April 6, saying that the mayor of Boston suggested a curfew between 9 PM and 6 AM. Suggested, not enforced. Or are there actually curfews in place?

Another participant in this discussion was lamenting the loss of his Constitutional rights. When I asked , "What rights have you lost?" he replied along the lines of, "Well, not in my state, but others have."

I think there is an awful lot of latent hysteria on this subject. Remember "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself?" Maybe right now, the only thing we have to fear is the virus itself. Not the big, bad liberals trying to take anyone's rights away. :rolleyes:
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Canadian here, who has come across some comments from Americans claiming that their rights are being taken away. This had me worried for my American relatives at first. In the end it seems we're experiencing the same inconveniences and necessary limitations on both sides of the border.

The flattening of the curve was predicted to happen earlier, and it's frustrating that we're still waiting for that to happen, but that's due to scientific research not being fully accurate in their predictions (as is often the case, and is to be expected). Having places not re-open is about being extra careful and not about prolonging the act of removing your freedoms.

edit -- just to clarify. When I said "your", I'm not referring to Sunny. I'm referring to the comments I've seen from people who act like their rights are being taken away.
 
I think there is one other thing we're waiting for while we're social distancing and isolating. We are waiting for more effective tested treatments for those who are infected with the virus. Reducing the virus's mortality rates and damaging effects through better treatments will also make it safer to relax measures to restrict it's spread.

For me there are too many things we don't know yet. The virus seems to have effects beyond the respiratory system that are not completely understood yet. We also don't know how long resistance to the virus will last in people who've had it. One thing I also haven't heard discussed is whether or not people who have resistance are able to carry enough virus to be contagious for people they're around. We also aren't hearing much about the long lasting effects of the virus once one no longer tests positive.
 
I learned last night through an extremely reliable but unnamed source that Philadelphia has been issuing electronic death certificates and that regardless of the mode of death, ie; auto accident, that certificate is not to be signed until a corona test issued and results returned. If the deceased had a positive test even though not symptomatic, the health physician must sign off as death due to COVID-19. Now this has raised eyebrows to say the very least as it skews the numbers, but it apparently is a manner of raking off more money from the government for the state. Investigations should be ongoing in each state if this is going on as it is just so wrong. Also, I just learned from my son that the U.S. federal lockdown expires at midnight tonight which I think will cause many to go forth with legal challenges. If you know you are at risk, you should stay at home and use your head. Even though I was at home, I still got the virus. I live in a Senior Living Facility and a staff member brought it in. Unfortunately, when all this began, the CDC and various Boards of Health began treating it in a reverse action. Hind sight is a wonderful teacher, but I was taught many years ago in Nursing School how to approach this at the outset. Obviously they aren't teaching that these days. Perhaps they should begin again.
 
@Lewkat

Federal government had no legal jurisdiction to proclaim a lockdown. That is a matter of state and local jurisdictions - always has been. The president eventually acknowledged this.

As for people killed in auto accidents being potentially counted as COVID-19 deaths, that sounds fairly suspicious. However, if someone died of disease-related causes, and were COVID-19 positive, the presumption can be made that the virus at least contributed to their deaths. Not an unreasonable assumption considering that recent death rates have swelled well beyond typical numbers plus CV-19 reported deaths. Pretty coincidental...
 
No freedoms lost, at all, in my home. I go to work, Janet goes to work. We make good livings.

We can't go to all places we'd like to go, so maybe, strictly speaking, we've lost a bit of freedom, but, if this viral spread is to be contained, we have to do the logical thing, which is, exactly, social distancing, mask wearing, hand washing, gloves, eye protection.

No big deal. Those who want to become infected, are free to do so, through their own stupidity, by ignoring those logical precautions that would otherwise protect their dumb butts.

Just stay the f away from me and my family!
 
Lewkat said:
I learned last night through an extremely reliable but unnamed source that Philadelphia has been issuing electronic death certificates and that regardless of the mode of death, ie; auto accident, that certificate is not to be signed until a corona test issued and results returned. If the deceased had a positive test even though not symptomatic, the health physician must sign off as death due to COVID-19. Now this has raised eyebrows to say the very least as it skews the numbers, but it apparently is a manner of raking off more money from the government for the state. Investigations should be ongoing in each state if this is going on as it is just so wrong. Also, I just learned from my son that the U.S. federal lockdown expires at midnight tonight which I think will cause many to go forth with legal challenges. If you know you are at risk, you should stay at home and use your head. Even though I was at home, I still got the virus. I live in a Senior Living Facility and a staff member brought it in. Unfortunately, when all this began, the CDC and various Boards of Health began treating it in a reverse action. Hind sight is a wonderful teacher, but I was taught many years ago in Nursing School how to approach this at the outset. Obviously they teaching that these days. Perhaps they should begin again.
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Hi Lewkat. Every death certificate that I have seen lists multiple causes and possible contributing factors. I believe that the Covid-19 dx would be included as part of the tracing/tracking efforts. In the case of a car accident victim, the post-mortem would likely list something like 'crushed spine, Covid-19,etc.' Personally, I don't believe it is part of any plot.
 
I don't know what's going on, Em. Perhaps each state has its own agenda. My cousin, who is a nurse practioner in Philly and is involved in all this phone me a couple of nights ago and informed me of what's going on down there. It may be only that Health Department which I understand covers 3 counties. In New Jersey each County has its own health department. One hears so much that may or not be happening in this vast nation of ours, it is just best to sit back sometimes and simply watch and wait.
 
Lewkat said:
I don't know what's going on, Em. Perhaps each state has its own agenda. My cousin, who is a nurse practioner in Philly and is involved in all this phone me a couple of nights ago and informed me of what's going on down there. It may be only that Health Department which I understand covers 3 counties. In New Jersey each County has its own health department. One hears so much that may or not be happening in this vast nation of ours, it is just best to sit back sometimes and simply watch and wait.
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Very interesting. If it is true that some county health departments are only listing Covid-19, I would think some regulation is in order. Even if Covid-19 is the primary cause, would they not list other factors that resulted from it, like pneumonia, blood clots, etc? I hope your cousin can pursue this further. I'm only familiar with deceased relations from Ohio and all were prior to this pandemic. They listed multiple things on the death certificates, as if providing a summary of all current diagnosis.
 
grahamg said:
It is my belief a false dichotomy has been put forward so far as the "elimination" of this pandemic virus infection.

If lockdown, and social distancing cannot ever rid the world of the virus, or stop it coming back again after levels of deaths and infection rates fall, and the lockdown is relaxed, then all that can be achieved by the unparalleled economic virtual standstill, (or 30%/40% loss in GDP anyway), is a process whereby the world learns to live with the virus, at least until a truly effective vaccine has been found, and then rolled out across the entire world.

Lockdown does not equal defeating this virus therefore, only ever controlling rates of infection, and therefore arguments as to whether you want to die a terrible death as a result of the virus, or want to see others die in a similar way, are not dealing with the reality of the situation. Deaths will continue, maybe ameliorated somewhat by improved therapies for those infected as more is learnt, but nothing more than that is possible.
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There IS an absolute, here, not a false dichotomy. Allow me to explain why your hypothesis is fallacious:

If total social isolation/lockdown was 100% in effect, if EVERYONE wore proper PPE and knew exactly how to use it, EFFECTIVELY, when out and about, the virus would be unable to spread. After (the generally held belief) fourteen days of zero spread, those who had contracted it before all safeguards were put into effect, would have either sickened and, possibly, died, or, hopefully, regained their health and have some (presumed) immunity to reinfection.

The virus, now without any humans to infect, and, hopefully, leaving alone our cats, dogs and wildlife, would dry up and go out of existence. We could come out into the sunshine, throw off our PPE, and joyfully sing, "Ding-dong, the witch is dead!" (Asymptomatic viral carriers/shedders would need to be identified, and marginalized, until a cure came along----- Shades of Typhoid Mary!)!

Unfortunately, H. sapiens has shown itself to be an ignorant species when it comes to learning the lessons of history. 100% compliance will not be achievable, worldwide, because most people are, by definition, of average intelligence, and that level of intelligence leaves great room for great stupidity.

So, the folks who shout about their personal freedoms this and that, and insist on getting together, eschewing all PPE and social distancing while doing so, will, most likely, keep cv19 doing its thing, until, and here we agree, an effective vaccine comes along.

What a world, what a world.......
 
the Illinois governor was accused of being a dictator by Republicans, and perhaps a class action
suit against him for his 1 man rulings. the New York Times listed the actual percentages and odds of getting infected or death for all 50 states. I figured it out for me. Don't tell anyone that basically it is less than one tenth of one percent (roughly) depending on age and race, unless there are other conditions, and assuming you are not working with sick people or other dangers. Of course, any and all deaths are sad. I don't mean to minimize them by anymeans.
 
treeguy64 said:
There IS an absolute, here, not a false dichotomy. Allow me to explain why your hypothesis is fallacious:

If total social isolation/lockdown was 100% in effect, if EVERYONE wore proper PPE and knew exactly how to use it, EFFECTIVELY, when out and about, the virus would be unable to spread. After (the generally held belief) fourteen days of zero spread, those who had contracted it before all safeguards were put into effect, would have either sickened and, possibly, died, or, hopefully, regained their health and have some (presumed) immunity to reinfection.

The virus, now without any humans to infect, and, hopefully, leaving alone our cats, dogs and wildlife, would dry up and go out of existence. We could come out into the sunshine, throw off our PPE, and joyfully sing, "Ding-dong, the witch is dead!" (Asymptomatic viral carriers/shedders would need to be identified, and marginalized, until a cure came along----- Shades of Typhoid Mary!)!

Unfortunately, H. sapiens has shown itself to be an ignorant species when it comes to learning the lessons of history. 100% compliance will not be achievable, worldwide, because most people are, by definition, of average intelligence, and that level of intelligence leaves great room for great stupidity.

So, the folks who shout about their personal freedoms this and that, and insist on getting together, eschewing all PPE and social distancing while doing so, will, most likely, keep cv19 doing its thing, until, and here we agree, an effective vaccine comes along.

What a world, what a world.......
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In order for your arguments to be in any way true, it would have to be possible to 100% possible to shutdown the whole world for two weeks, and a bit extra to be sure.

No one, but no one, would be allowed to leave their homes, or if they do their PPE, and other measures they take whilst outside their homes, would have to be 100% effective too.

You know none of this is anywhere near possible, and it doesn't take into account whether those previously infected with Coronavirus start spreading it again.

The British representative to the WHO takes a different view to yours on whose dichotomy might be false, so until you achieve some kind of similar status I'll have to defer to them . :whistle: .
 
grahamg said:
In order for your arguments to be in any way true, it would have to be possible to 100% possible to shutdown the whole world for two weeks, and a bit extra to be sure.

No one, but no one, would be allowed to leave their homes, or if they do their PPE, and other measures they take whilst outside their homes, would have to be 100% effective too.

You know none of this is anywhere near possible, and it doesn't take into account whether those previously infected with Coronavirus start spreading it again.

The British representative to the WHO takes a different view to yours on whose dichotomy might be false, so until you achieve some kind of similar status I'll have to defer to them . :whistle: .
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As I wrote, there is no false dichotomy, here. There IS, however, the stupidity of our species, in general, which precludes 100% compliance with those guidelines that would, if universally observed, almost certainly end the current run of cv19.

In essence I am agreeing with what wrote about how none of the above is anywhere near possible, but such are the pig-headed sensibilities of H. sapiens.
 
treeguy64 said:
As I wrote, there is no false dichotomy, here. There IS, however, the stupidity of our species, in general, which precludes 100% compliance with those guidelines that would, if universally observed, almost certainly end the current run of cv19.

In essence I am agreeing with what wrote about how none of the above is anywhere near possible, but such are the pig-headed sensibilities of H. sapiens.
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If we agree, for sakes of argument, that H. Sapiens stupidity means the dreadful virus pandemic cannot be eliminated completely from the whole world, and hence no longer to a threat ever again, then all we're left with is trying to manage infection levels, and essentially learn to live with it.

I've worn enough facemasks, and had face fit tests done often enough to realise some of their well known limitations. Remarkably, fitted perfectly to your well shaven face, they can remove 99% of the test particles used during a ten minute exposure, (not sure whether the indicator particles used are as minute as this viral particle, but let's assume they are).

Now I mentioned folks with facial hair defeating the 99% efficiency of the mask over a ten minute test, in laboratory conditions, than there is how long they might remain anywhere near that efficient, or whether the user finds it impossible to wear them as instructed, and work in them during strenuous work let's say, before the irritation of wearing them means they remove the mask, or stop wearing them properly.

If none of this is at all possible to achieve in good conditions for any length of time,bthen I'd argue the stupidity of H. sapiens includes expecting such a system to work. :unsure: .
 
grahamg said:
If we agree, for sakes of argument, that H. Sapiens stupidity means the dreadful virus pandemic cannot be eliminated completely from the whole world, and hence no longer to a threat ever again, then all we're left with is trying to manage infection levels, and essentially learn to live with it.

I've worn enough facemasks, and had face fit tests done often enough to realise some of their well known limitations. Remarkably, fitted perfectly to your well shaven face, they can remove 99% of the test particles used during a ten minute exposure, (not sure whether the indicator particles used are as minute as this viral particle, but let's assume they are).

Now I mentioned folks with facial hair defeating the 99% efficiency of the mask over a ten minute test, in laboratory conditions, than there is how long they might remain anywhere near that efficient, or whether the user finds it impossible to wear them as instructed, and work in them during strenuous work let's say, before the irritation of wearing them means they remove the mask, or stop wearing them properly.

If none of this is at all possible to achieve in good conditions for any length of time,bthen I'd argue the stupidity of H. sapiens includes expecting such a system to work. :unsure: .
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I was taking issue with your false dichotomy assertion. You don't seem to want to understand that, so I'm dropping out of this silly back and forth repartee.
 
My son and fam. want to come by today. He says he's over the whole Fear the Corona Virus thing. I asked him if he will take care of my cats when I get sick. He said, Uh sure. I told him they have to be fed twice a day because some can't eat dry food, and the litter boxes need to be scooped. He said we'll just come by and drop off some flowers while standing 6 ft away. Haha. Thanks Mr. Corona-Virus-is-Fake.
 

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