A Plethora of November Inflation Data

[mathjak107]

You likely did better for not trading …most traders end up lagging…

even the best of the predictors like ray dalio or Paul Tudor jones end up sliding backwards

 

[Liberty]

You likely did better for not trading …most traders end up lagging…

even the best of the predictors like ray dalio or Paul Tudor jones end up sliding backwards

That's for sure. I just talk about it, same as the rest of you - have good funds that we just hold on to and reinvest the dividends. Add a few grand to a growth fund now and then, otherwise sit and say "today I will buy this or that"...lol. Its fun to talk though.

Honestly believe its sheer luck to actually successfully time the market. Timing the market is a waste of "time". And experts are often wrong so pay little attention to them. Like Bogle said "nobody knows nothing".

 

[mathjak107]

Remember though , reinvesting dividends is not growing the money unless the stock appreciates as much as the payout was …it is only about total returns …

if you don’t reinvest then you took what amounts to a draw from your investment and you have less compounding for you .

most people don’t understand what dividends represent or how they work …so if you do , great but few do .

they think of them like interest and they are not ..they are like a distribution from your fund where they pay out x amount and next day you reinvest and have more shares at a lower price but the same exact dollars compounding for you as you had .

there is never a benefit to dividends alone , they are only a return of your own money like a draw from a portfolio…your actual return need share appreciation to get ahead .

if anyone is lost here is a simplified example .

you have one share of xyz at 100.00 dollars….it goes ex div and pays out 10 ..before it can trade again it has its price automatically reduced to 90 dollars to offset the pay out .so you now have 90 dollars invested at the ring of the bell and ten dollars in pocket

if you don’t reinvest and the Stock doubles you have 180.00 dollars plus ten in pocket .

if you reinvested then you have the same full hundred dollars working for you and if the stock doubled you have 200 .

if the same 100 dollar stock never paid out and it saw the same doubling its the same 200 as the reinvested money was .

people get blinded because they see more shares but it is more shares at a lower price each time but same dollars compounding as you had …no different then a stock split

 

[Liberty]

Remember though , reinvesting dividends is not growing the money unless the stock appreciates as much as the payout was …it is only about total returns …

if you don’t reinvest then you took what amounts to a draw from your investment and you have less compounding for you .

most people don’t understand what dividends represent or how they work …so if you do , great but few do .

they think of them like interest and they are not ..they are like a distribution from your fund where they pay out x amount and next day you reinvest and have more shares at a lower price but the same exact dollars compounding for you as you had .

there is never a benefit to dividends alone , they are only a return of your own money like a draw from a portfolio…your actual return need share appreciation to get ahead .

if anyone is lost here is a simplified example .

you have one share of xyz at 100.00 dollars….it goes ex div and pays out 10 ..before it can trade again it has its price automatically reduced to 90 dollars to offset the pay out .so you now have 90 dollars invested at the ring of the bell and ten dollars in pocket

if you don’t reinvest and the Stock doubles you have 180.00 dollars plus ten in pocket .

if you reinvested then you have the same full hundred dollars working for you and if the stock doubled you have 200 .

if the same 100 dollar stock never paid out and it saw the same doubling its the same 200 as the reinvested money was .

people get blinded because they see more shares but it is more shares at a lower price each time but same dollars compounding as you had …no different then a stock split

We have one good dividend "growth" fund that has done very well in appreciation plus distribution. That fund is great. Do agree with you here - no use trading dividends for appreciation.

 

[oldmontana]

Remember though , reinvesting dividends is not growing the money unless the stock appreciates as much as the payout was …it is only about total returns …

if you don’t reinvest then you took what amounts to a draw from your investment and you have less compounding for you .

most people don’t understand what dividends represent or how they work …so if you do , great but few do .

they think of them like interest and they are not ..they are like a distribution from your fund where they pay out x amount and next day you reinvest and have more shares at a lower price but the same exact dollars compounding for you as you had .

there is never a benefit to dividends alone , they are only a return of your own money like a draw from a portfolio…your actual return need share appreciation to get ahead .

if anyone is lost here is a simplified example .

you have one share of xyz at 100.00 dollars….it goes ex div and pays out 10 ..before it can trade again it has its price automatically reduced to 90 dollars to offset the pay out .so you now have 90 dollars invested at the ring of the bell and ten dollars in pocket

if you don’t reinvest and the Stock doubles you have 180.00 dollars plus ten in pocket .

if you reinvested then you have the same full hundred dollars working for you and if the stock doubled you have 200 .

if the same 100 dollar stock never paid out and it saw the same doubling its the same 200 as the reinvested money was .

people get blinded because they see more shares but it is more shares at a lower price each time but same dollars compounding as you had …no different then a stock split

===============================
there is never a benefit to dividends alone , they are only a return of your own money like a draw from a portfolio…your actual return need share appreciation to get ahead .

if anyone is lost here is a simplified example .

you have one share of xyz at 100.00 dollars….it goes ex div and pays out 10 ..before it can trade again it has its price automatically reduced to 90 dollars to offset the pay out .so you now have 90 dollars invested at the ring of the bell and ten dollars in pocket


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The fact is most stocks that pay dividends also appreciate. Yes, when a stock x-div the stock as a rule goes down but that is no reason to sell that stock.

 

[Harry Le Hermit]

I am very confused over the assumption that a stock drops immediately after the ex-dividend date and correlates directly to stock price adjustment. Dates of dividend payout and amounts are usually announced 2 1/2 to 3 months prior to payout and the ex-dividend date usually precedes that date by 3~4 weeks. Any movement in the stock price is based on excitement or disappointment. Generally the rule regarding a dip in price corresponds to heavier volume of stocks being traded or supply/demand, as does the rise in stock price to lower volume.

 

[HoneyNut]

She confessed she bought the corned beef last summer and froze it, then never got around to serving it until Sunday. She looked up the current price per pound. It’s $2.00 per pound higher now. About a 30% plus increase over 6 months.

The cost to freeze it for a year (electricity and amortizing the freezer) might have been around $1.41 (my math could be wrong tho). On the other hand, value of having it on hand when wanted = priceless.

 

[Packerjohn]

My government is trying to tell me that the rate of inflation for November was 4.7%. When I visited Costco and saw that my peaches from Greece went up from $7.99 to $9.99 I know that my government is trying to feed me a bunch of bull! You don't have to be a scientist to figure out those peaches went up 20%.

 

[Don M.]

My government is trying to tell me that the rate of inflation for November was 4.7%.

That's about "half" the "official" rate, here in the U.S. The government numbers are quite "optimistic", compared to what most people are experiencing. Food prices, especially for meats and fresh produce, have gone up far more than 10% in the past year, according to our experiences. The cost of vehicle fuel is almost 50% higher than it normally is, during this time of year. Those heating their homes with gas or propane will see a huge increase in their bills this Winter.

 

[CarolfromTX]

This is a prime example of the government, yours, mine, theirs, trying to convince us we’re not seeing what we’re seeing. Not experiencing what we’re experiencing. Nothing to see here. Move along. Well, my grocery bill has skyrocketed.

 

[OneEyedDiva]

Yesterday the only thing that made money for me was the great dividend fund I've got- the other funds lost. Value time.

Most of my investments are dividend paying. And I like it like that.

 

[mathjak107]

Most of my investments are dividend paying. And I like it like that.

Nothing wrong with that if the total returns are good ..returns don’t care if they are from appreciation, dividends or a combo ..

but most amateur investors think of dividends alone as their return and that is not the case .

heck AT&T would have been a star if that was the case with their 6 and 7% dividends. Instead of a dog for investors for years

 

[OneEyedDiva]

Nothing wrong with that if the total returns are good ..returns don’t care if they are from appreciation, dividends or a combo ..

but most amateur investors think of dividends alone as their return and that is not the case .

heck AT&T would have been a star if that was the case with their 6 and 7% dividends. Instead of a dog for investors for years

My total returns have been very good for all but one of the funds and that one is picking up but still below average for it's class. Who woulda thunk it...that AT&T would wind up being a "dog"?!

 

[oldmontana]

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there is never a benefit to dividends alone , they are only a return of your own money like a draw from a portfolio…your actual return need share appreciation to get ahead .

if anyone is lost here is a simplified example .

you have one share of xyz at 100.00 dollars….it goes ex div and pays out 10 ..before it can trade again it has its price automatically reduced to 90 dollars to offset the pay out .so you now have 90 dollars invested at the ring of the bell and ten dollars in pocket


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The fact is most stocks that pay dividends also appreciate. Yes, when a stock x-div the stock as a rule goes down but that is no reason to sell that stock.

One think that mathjak107 did not say is that
many dividend paying stocks go UP prior to the x- div date as it increases the amount they will get when the dividend is paid. Basic investing 101.

 

[mathjak107]

One think that mathjak107 did not say is that
many dividend paying stocks go UP prior to the x- div date as it increases the amount they will get when the dividend is paid. Basic investing 101.

They still are reduced before the opening bell by the amount paid , always …

it is no different then a fund that pays a dividend ….it is a return of a piece of whatever the existing share price was and the stock must be reduced by the amount paid and it is automatically.

markets alway move it up and down but one thing is for sure , the value is always reduced by what is paid…if markets moved it up 10% that is 10% from the reduced value ..

it you reinvested then it’s 10% on the value you had pre ex div the same as if the stock didn’t pay out at all.

sometimes stocks may move up before going ex div but studies have shown it is no better then random trying to make it a strategy

basic investing 101

 

[mathjak107]

My total returns have been very good for all but one of the funds and that one is picking up but still below average for it's class. Who woulda thunk it...that AT&T would wind up being a "dog"?!

Yep AT&T has been a dog for many years , Exxon , ge , all provided investors with awful returns despite their dividends . Even ppl was left in the dust by an s&p fund

 

[oldmontana]

They still are reduced before the opening bell by the amount paid , always …

it is no different then a fund that pays a dividend ….it is a return of a piece of whatever the existing share price was and the stock must be reduced by the amount paid and it is automatically.

markets alway move it up and down but one thing is for sure , the value is always reduced by what is paid…if markets moved it up 10% that is 10% from the reduced value ..

it you reinvested then it’s 10% on the value you had pre ex div the same as if the stock didn’t pay out at all.

sometimes stocks may move up before going ex div but studies have shown it is no better then random trying to make it a strategy

basic investing 101

================================
sometimes stocks may move up before going ex div but studies have shown it is no better then random trying to make it a strategy

Its not a stratgy its a fact. Basic investing 101.

 

[mathjak107]

================================
sometimes stocks may move up before going ex div but studies have shown it is no better then random trying to make it a strategy

Its not a stratgy its a fact. Basic investing 101.

Bull, if they go up pre div it is just typical market action that time , next time it may go down .
Studies have shown there is no strategy that can be used assuming the stock will go up up extra pre ex div reliably …if it goes up it is simple market normal action .

and then the value of your investment is reduced by the payment going forward for markets to act on ..it is pretty much a wash.
It’s simple math.

 

[mathjak107]

You can see how it works here .

here. Is a typical dividend payout

on dec 12 2019 it opened at 57.26 and closed at 57.41

it went ex div for .46 cents and exchange computers reset it to 56.94

it open next morning at 56.96 after closing at 57.26 the night before



so all trading and compounding is on 56.96 Going forward

 

[Aunt Bea]

I agree, but I don’t sweat it down to the last basis point.

I have some funds that I look forward to receiving the distributions of dividends and capital gains. I have other funds where everything is reinvested.

The distributions are a part of my simplified ‘sugar bowl’ system of piecing together my income.

To me the important thing is to have a lifetime system or habit of saving and investing.

 

[mathjak107]

I agree, but I don’t sweat it down to the last basis point.

I have some funds that I look forward to receiving the distributions of dividends and capital gains. I have other funds where everything is reinvested.

The distributions are a part of my simplified ‘sugar bowl’ system of piecing together my income.

To me the important thing is to have a lifetime system or habit of saving and investing.

We take the dividends in our taxable account and fill next years spending bucket …we reinvest the distributions in our retirement accounts

 

[oldmontana]

You can see how it works here .

here. Is a typical dividend payout

on dec 12 2019 it opened at 57.26 and closed at 57.41

it went ex div for .46 cents and exchange computers reset it to 56.94

it open next morning at 56.96 after closing at 57.26 the night before



so all trading and compounding is on 56.96.

You can see how it works here .

here. Is a typical dividend payout

on dec 12 2019 it opened at 57.26 and closed at 57.41

it went ex div for .46 cents and exchange computers reset it to 56.94

it open next morning at 56.96 after closing at 57.26 the night before



so all trading and compounding is on 56.96 Going forward

You can see how it works here .

here. Is a typical dividend payout

on dec 12 2019 it opened at 57.26 and closed at 57.41

it went ex div for .46 cents and exchange computers reset it to 56.94

it open next morning at 56.96 after closing at 57.26 the night before



so all trading and compounding is on 56.96 Going forward

================================

You are stuck on that. I made my point that just because a stock goes down the day after they pay a div does not mean that the price will stay down like your posts try to project.

I have many utility stocks that show what you what you trying to project about dividends is not true.

So you do not like div paying stocks. You were on on that kick about two year ago.

 

[Knight]

We take the dividends in our taxable account and fill next years spending bucket …we reinvest the distributions in our retirement accounts

same here since the stock we have is going to our sons as inheritance. The ups & downs of share value aren't something we follow. What ever the share price is when we croak is what I suspect our sons won't care about, they will just sell to get whatever the value is.

 

[mathjak107]

================================

You are stuck on that. I made my point that just because a stock goes down the day after they pay a div does not mean that the price will stay down like your posts try to project.

I have many utility stocks that show what you what you trying to project about dividends is not true.

So you do not like div paying stocks. You were on on that kick about two year ago.

i never said it stays down , but what it does do is reduce future compounding if you don’t reinvest so you have back the same amount before it went ex div .

if you had 100k invested at the close and it paid a 10% dividend you have only 90k left working for you after the adjustment and 10k in pocket .

if market action doubled that stock because of great news the next day , you have 180k and 10k in pocket.

if you reinvested that 10k you have 100k working for you and if it doubled on the news you have 200k .

if it never paid out the 10k dividend and you had the original 100k you had before the dividend and the stock doubled on the news it is the same 200k balance.

if you are still confused about what I said , read this again