Are Pos. Or Neg. On The Stock Market for The Next Three Years?

mathjak107 said:
i have always used funds as an investor but of course funds encompass a whole lot of territory . i am not a lover of only high quality bonds right now . i like a broad mix ranging from some high quality ,some lower quality , all different duration's , foreign bonds , junk and emerging market .

as far as annuities that depends on what kind and the roll they are playing vs investing alone .
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Thank you for the info.

We were leaning towards an index mutual fund that tracks the S&P 500.
 

mathjak107 said:
that is fine . i use mostly manged fidelity funds and have beaten the s&p 500 over the long term but it can be a fine choice. what allocation ?
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Not sure about allocation as of yet, that's the stuff we need an expert for.
 

mathjak107 said:
what draw rate are you hoping to be able to take and for how many years ?
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Not really sure on the draw rate as of yet because we don't know what the fee structures are for the different funds. As for time, probably an 8-10 year window unless our plans change.
 
so i take it you are saying you have 8-10 years from retirement .

i can't tell you what you should do but up to about 4 years out we were 100% equities always .. our retirement model is 50/50
 
mathjak107 said:
as top researcher michael kitces said :

Cash reserve strategies that hold aside several years of spending to avoid liquidations during bear markets are a popular way to manage withdrawals for retirees. In theory, the strategy is presumed to enhance risk-adjusted returns by allowing retirees to spend down their cash during market declines and then replenish it after the recovery. Yet recent research in the Journal of Financial Planning reveals that the strategy actually results in more harm than good; while in some scenarios the cash reserves effectively allow the retiree to “time” the market by avoiding an untimely liquidation, more often the retiree simply ends out with less money due to the ongoing return drag of a significant portfolio position in cash. As a result, the superior strategy for those who want to alter their asset allocation through market volatility (the effective result of spending down cash in declines and replenishing it later) appears to be simply tactically altering asset allocation directly, without the adverse impact of a cash return drag. Nonetheless, this still fails to account for the psychological benefits the client enjoys by having a clearly identifiable cash reserve to manage spending through volatility – even though the reality is that it results in less retirement income, not more.
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Oh gee Mathjack...could this be any smaller?!! I see you mentioned bonds. We Muslims are not supposed to invest in bonds or any other interest bearing accounts, although the edict has been relaxed to allow miniscule amounts like the extremely low rates banks currently pay. This was because of the detrimental affect interest had on the poor who needed to borrow money over 1,400 years ago. We see today the detrimental affect todays borrowers and credit card users face as well. Anyway, I remain heavily invested in the market (mostly funds & ETFs) because of that and because I don't need to take any withdrawals except for the RMDs (very small amounts) which started last year. My investment to cash ratio is 75/25.

Also it seems you are using the 4% rule (basically), making adjustments as necessary and it's working for you. Thank you for sharing your method.
 
mathjak107 said:
so i take it you are saying you have 8-10 years from retirement .

i can't tell you what you should do but up to about 4 years out we were 100% equities always .. our retirement model is 50/50
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We are currently 13 years from retirement, we are 54(me) & 53(wife) yrs old. Our plan is to either use that money as payment towards our retirement home which we plan on purchasing in about 8 years, or secure it in some other less risky investment so we don't lose it.
 
lose it? short term money should never be in equities . however when it comes to long term money even at 65 you have money you will not eat with for 20-30 years . i can't think of 1 long term period in our history , investors in diversified equity funds or a diversified portfolio not only never lost a dime but did not make substantially more .

when you match investments to appropriate time frames loosing it has never been a problem . it is bad investor behavior that causes the losses not markets .
 
OneEyedDiva said:
Oh gee Mathjack...could this be any smaller?!! I see you mentioned bonds. We Muslims are not supposed to invest in bonds or any other interest bearing accounts, although the edict has been relaxed to allow miniscule amounts like the extremely low rates banks currently pay. This was because of the detrimental affect interest had on the poor who needed to borrow money over 1,400 years ago. We see today the detrimental affect todays borrowers and credit card users face as well. Anyway, I remain heavily invested in the market (mostly funds & ETFs) because of that and because I don't need to take any withdrawals except for the RMDs (very small amounts) which started last year. My investment to cash ratio is 75/25.

Also it seems you are using the 4% rule (basically), making adjustments as necessary and it's working for you. Thank you for sharing your method.
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wow that is not the size i see when i post . i have to see how to enlarge the fonts .​
 
mathjak107 said:
wow that is not the size i see when i post . i have to see how to enlarge the fonts .​
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I don't know if you are using a computer, phone or tablet when you post but on my desktop computer, I see an area directly above the field where I type text that gives several options including making the text bold, changing font styles and sizes and areas to facilitate posting links, photos, videos, etc. When I'm posting in another forum with similar features I don't see those options when using my tablet. i never tried posting via the tablet on this site. Now I highlighted this reply and clicked on Size>2.
 
mathjak107 said:
lose it? short term money should never be in equities . however when it comes to long term money even at 65 you have money you will not eat with for 20-30 years . i can't think of 1 long term period in our history , investors in diversified equity funds or a diversified portfolio not only never lost a dime but did not make substantially more .

when you match investments to appropriate time frames loosing it has never been a problem . it is bad investor behavior that causes the losses not markets .
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Yeah lose it. We don't want to get close to retirement age with an investment that has returned some decent money and see it go down because we held onto it for too long. If we get what we want out of it, then we'll probably secure it and either use it for a house purchase, or put it into something less risky like a fixed annuity, rather than taking a chance on it diminishing in value. Then again, things might change for us by then, who knows. But the #1 rule we are going to follow as close as possible, is to not lose what we already have. This money we are looking to invest is over and above what we have set aside to secure our retirement, so we're willing to take a bit of a chance with it, but not too much if we can avoid it.
 
mathjak107 said:
as long as you can provide the level of inflation adjusted income for decades you can do it any way you like .
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I agree, I'm just not as open to higher risk investments as some are. I'd rather be safe and secure and be able to sleep at night than worrying about it constantly.
 
The markets go up...the markets go down...that is part of the "game". However, over the long term, there is probably no other investment strategy that works as well as a moderately conservative stock market portfolio. Money in the bank just gathers dust. Annuities seem to be a great option...for the Insurance companies...with their paltry returns. Investing in real estate is a potential plus...IF it is buying rental properties, etc., and IF the maintenance costs don't eat up the profits. An individual's "house" should Not be considered an Investment...rather is should be looked upon as a place to eat, sleep, and bathe....and should be fully paid off by the time a person retires.
 
the only problem is that you never develop the cushion with fixed income only. don't forget those levels you fall from and down to in bear markets are rarely the levels of the highs you even see with fixed income . so while we all worry about the drops the realty is we are falling from balances we would never even be at as well as the lows are way higher than the highs of fixed income . i can lose 30% and still be higher than i would be if i avoided equities .
 
mathjak107 said:
the only problem is that you never develop the cushion with fixed income only. don't forget those levels you fall from and down to in bear markets are rarely the levels of the highs you even see with fixed income . so while we all worry about the drops the realty is we are falling from balances we would never even be at as well as the lows are way higher than the highs of fixed income . i can lose 30% and still be higher than i would be if i avoided equities .
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I certainly understand what you're saying and this is why I ask questions when I'm not sure. We are going to meet with a financial advisor in a couple of months for some advice of what we can do and take it from there. We may meet with more than one advisor before we decide what to do. I thank you for your input!
 
The biggest threat to our nations....and individuals, financial security...is a certain Unnamed Individual in Washington, DC, who appears to be all "Tweet" and no Brain.
 
Don M. said:
The biggest threat to our nations....and individuals, financial security...is a certain Unnamed Individual in Washington, DC, who appears to be all "Tweet" and no Brain.
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I really don't know what the hell he's thinking, someone needs to stop him. This latest thing with going after Amazon is bizarre at best. The damage to the brick and mortar stores done by Amazon should have been addressed 15-20 years ago. It's far too late now, the damage is done, the brick and mortar stores aren't coming back. Trump announcing he is going after one of the biggest companies in the world is beyond dumb. If he's going after Amazon, then he'll have to go after Walmart, Target and most of the other big chain stores as well.
 
Diversify and don't let your portfolio become stagnant. Even a modest portfolio can develop a nice income stream. Have the ability to turn that income stream off or on as your needs change.
 
Great discussion everyone - Thanks! MY RMD is enough to keep me comfortable. I have pulled out of the market b/c of the stupidity in the White House and b/c I fear a major crash is coming. Lots of cash under the mattress. Now it is "High Risk = High Return". Investing in Lottery Tickets!
 
timing this stuff is a foolish game. getting out is easy . but what happens is markets flip on a dime before anything changes and head up . study after study shows that if you missed the biggest gains when markets flip and look like a suckers rally you would have done better just simply riding the cycle .

investors make this mistake over and over thinking they are going to time the entry point again and shoot themselves in the foot
 
mathjak107 said:
timing this stuff is a foolish game. getting out is easy . but what happens is markets flip on a dime before anything changes and head up . study after study shows that if you missed the biggest gains when markets flip and look like a suckers rally you would have done better just simply riding the cycle .

investors make this mistake over and over thinking they are going to time the entry point again and shoot themselves in the foot
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Agreed, no telling how many bailed out in 2008 only to regret it later. When everyone is selling, someone is buying. Sometimes you have to swing for the fences.
 
JB in SC said:
Agreed, no telling how many bailed out in 2008 only to regret it later. When everyone is selling, someone is buying. Sometimes you have to swing for the fences.
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I swung for the fence when I was younger.....no more. I have some in the market, but not a lot. Not trying to time anything, just not interested in riding out big swings at this point in my life.
 

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