Having a hard time calling this a pandemic...
- Thread starter macgeek
- Start date
From what i see on TV here in Australia the virus has killed 800.000 world wide .
Its hit aged care homes really bad in the state Of Victoria.
533 have died in Vic ( they are in stage 4 lockdown for the 2nd time ) 4 deaths in south Aust where I live. We are so lucky our Premier was so strict and locked out victorians unless they have a very good reason to come here , then most have to isolate in a hotel for 14 days at their own expense
Its hit aged care homes really bad in the state Of Victoria.
533 have died in Vic ( they are in stage 4 lockdown for the 2nd time ) 4 deaths in south Aust where I live. We are so lucky our Premier was so strict and locked out victorians unless they have a very good reason to come here , then most have to isolate in a hotel for 14 days at their own expense
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Just saw a news article about a wedding in Maine about 2 weeks ago at a lodge in the woods. Over 60 people (so far) have gotten COVID-19, due to one wedding guest who had it. One of those people (so far) has died.
More people probably caught it there, but the 60+ all had symptoms. Who knows how many more there were?
The article talked about how easily it spreads. The person who died caught it from from daughter, who had not been at the wedding but had been in contact with her sister's mother-in-law, who was a guest. They called that a tertiary source, which is one step beyond a secondary source. This virus is truly opportunistic, and leaps at every opportunity.
More people probably caught it there, but the 60+ all had symptoms. Who knows how many more there were?
The article talked about how easily it spreads. The person who died caught it from from daughter, who had not been at the wedding but had been in contact with her sister's mother-in-law, who was a guest. They called that a tertiary source, which is one step beyond a secondary source. This virus is truly opportunistic, and leaps at every opportunity.
Judycat
Well-known Member
- Location
- Pennsylvania
It has shown up all over the world it's a pandemic.
GeorgiaXplant
Well-known Member
- Location
- Georgia
Pandemic means global, worldwide. It's a pandemic. There are those who suffer from the Ostrich Syndrome. It's still a pandemic.
jujube
SF VIP
I say po-tay-to, you say po-tah-to,
I say pandemic, you say......well, whatever you want to call it, people are dying all over the world in alarming quantities. I say pandemic.
I say pandemic, you say......well, whatever you want to call it, people are dying all over the world in alarming quantities. I say pandemic.
Globally the "world health organization" estimates 650.000 flu deaths each year since 2010. Gee I wonder if any of those are counted as covid this year. And why no shut down before??
Don M.
SF VIP
- Location
- central Missouri
This CoronaVirus is now the 3rd leading cause of death in the U.S.....with Cancer and Heart Disease still far more deadly. However, the longer this disease lingers, the greater the possibility of it taking over a higher position, statistically. It has already taken the lives of many elderly who were suffering other illnesses, and now the trend seems to be more among the young who resist adhering to the recommendations. The Immediate big "question mark" is how will millions of kids going back to school affect the numbers.
DaveA
Well-known Member
- Location
- Coastal Massachusetts, USA
Sadly, what it's called has more to do with political positions than anything else. If the "leader' of one off our political parties changes his mind, his supporters will do an about face and do the same.
I haven't noticed any particular political connections to other illnesses but if it should happen, watch the "followers" fall into line behind their "leader", whoever it happens to be.
I would imagine some of the blindest of followers will not change their position even when someone in their own family passes away from the disease. It'll just be collateral damage in the political war. That is how sick, IMHO, our society has become.
I haven't noticed any particular political connections to other illnesses but if it should happen, watch the "followers" fall into line behind their "leader", whoever it happens to be.
I would imagine some of the blindest of followers will not change their position even when someone in their own family passes away from the disease. It'll just be collateral damage in the political war. That is how sick, IMHO, our society has become.
Aunt Bea
SF VIP
- Location
- Near Mount Pilot
The thing that I would be interested to see is the statistics around excess mortality during this pandemic.
Has the rate of death gone up as a result of COVID19 or has the cause of death simply changed?
Has the rate of death gone up as a result of COVID19 or has the cause of death simply changed?
StarSong
Awkward is my Superpower
- Location
- Los Angeles Suburbs
Your title suggests you're having a hard time calling this a pandemic. Pandemic classification isn't a subjective opinion like like beautiful or interesting. Just as there are specific triggers for describing certain meteorological events (tropical storm, hurricane, tornado, etc.), contagious illnesses have specific classifications.
This from the CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson1/section11.html)
Section 11: Epidemic Disease Occurrence
Level of disease
The amount of a particular disease that is usually present in a community is referred to as the baseline or endemic level of the disease. This level is not necessarily the desired level, which may in fact be zero, but rather is the observed level. In the absence of intervention and assuming that the level is not high enough to deplete the pool of susceptible persons, the disease may continue to occur at this level indefinitely. Thus, the baseline level is often regarded as the expected level of the disease.
While some diseases are so rare in a given population that a single case warrants an epidemiologic investigation (e.g., rabies, plague, polio), other diseases occur more commonly so that only deviations from the norm warrant investigation. Sporadic refers to a disease that occurs infrequently and irregularly. Endemic refers to the constant presence and/or usual prevalence of a disease or infectious agent in a population within a geographic area. Hyperendemic refers to persistent, high levels of disease occurrence.
Occasionally, the amount of disease in a community rises above the expected level. Epidemic refers to an increase, often sudden, in the number of cases of a disease above what is normally expected in that population in that area. Outbreak carries the same definition of epidemic, but is often used for a more limited geographic area. Cluster refers to an aggregation of cases grouped in place and time that are suspected to be greater than the number expected, even though the expected number may not be known. Pandemic refers to an epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents, usually affecting a large number of people.
Epidemics occur when an agent and susceptible hosts are present in adequate numbers, and the agent can be effectively conveyed from a source to the susceptible hosts. More specifically, an epidemic may result from:
- A recent increase in amount or virulence of the agent,
- The recent introduction of the agent into a setting where it has not been before,
- An enhanced mode of transmission so that more susceptible persons are exposed,
- A change in the susceptibility of the host response to the agent, and/or
- Factors that increase host exposure or involve introduction through new portals of entry.(47)
StarSong
Awkward is my Superpower
- Location
- Los Angeles Suburbs
They sure seem to, don't they?I can’t believe there’s people still denying this virus even exists. Talk about blinders. How do they miss it? Do they think they are smarter than the worlds professionals in understanding all this? Crazy!
That's because it's become a matter of politics, not science. We are living in an Orwellian nightmare.
"War is peace."
"Freedom is slavery."
"Ignorance is strength."
"All animals are equal. But some animals are more equal than other animals."
asp3
Senior Member
- Location
- Silicon Valley, CA
Seems to fit the definitions I found.
pan·dem·ic
adjective
(of a disease) prevalent over a whole country or the world.
prev·a·lent
adjective
widespread in a particular area or at a particular time.
wide·spread
adjective
found or distributed over a large area or number of people.
pan·dem·ic
adjective
(of a disease) prevalent over a whole country or the world.
prev·a·lent
adjective
widespread in a particular area or at a particular time.
wide·spread
adjective
found or distributed over a large area or number of people.
GeorgiaXplant
Well-known Member
- Location
- Georgia
Oh, for crying out loud. Get your head out of the sand and un-drink the Kool-Aid. If you don't want to call it a pandemic, then call it an orange or a giraffe or a book. A rose by any other name...except this ain't no rose and it doesn't smell sweet. It stinks of death.
After three months, my brother still lies near death in an LTC center with little hope of recovery. I guess he's just collateral damage along with more than 180,000 other Americans and more than 820,000 people worldwide.
macgeek
Member
looks like I'm wrong. its a pandemic according to that definition. I guess I don't like the word pandemic because it sounds like all hope is lost and the world is coming to an end. Hopefully that is not the case.
60 million had swine flu in 2009, yet we barely talked about that. That certainly was a pandemic to me with numbers like that. I guess everyone can think what they like.
macgeek
Member
sorry to hear this. someone from my church nearly died twice from it.
"60 million had swine flu in 2009".
That was the final count for it, we don't yet have a final count on Covid-19 and won't until its over.
Why would we talk and concern ourselves about the swine flu ( at this moment ) when we are trying to survive this pandemic?
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squatting dog
Remember when... thirty seemed so old.
- Location
- Arkansas, and also Florida
I'm going to need a link to the CDC report that states this is the third leading cause of death.. So far, I can't find the link.
Sorry, but I want it from the official CDC site.
squatting dog
Remember when... thirty seemed so old.
- Location
- Arkansas, and also Florida
Last thing I found on the site....
"Because the CDC can't determine leading causes of deaths until after 2020, they said it's still up in the air as to where the coronavirus will end up on the list."
"Because the CDC can't determine leading causes of deaths until after 2020, they said it's still up in the air as to where the coronavirus will end up on the list."
asp3
Senior Member
- Location
- Silicon Valley, CA
Swine flu was not nearly as likely to cause hospitalization and was not nearly as deadly. Comparing the figures for swine flu here https://www.cdc.gov/H1N1flu/hosp_deaths_ahdra.htm with those for Covid-19 here https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html hospitalizations for Covid are over 6.5 times higher than those for the swine flu. Unfortunately I didn't find statistics about length of stay and type of care needed which I think are higher and more intensive than those for swine flu.
According to the report "States reported 2,498* flu-related deaths to CDC during April 2009 through January 30, 2010." We've had 70 times as many deaths from Covid in about half the time period.
So although the swine flu affected more people overall there were far fewer hospitalizations and deaths so that might be why people aren't talking much about the swine flu.
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Don M.
SF VIP
- Location
- central Missouri
It appears that the Latest numbers from the CDC website show the data from 2017....like most government data, it is behind the times.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/le...lzheimer’s disease: 116,103. Diabetes: 80,058.
However, if you review the CDC numbers regarding heart and cancer related deaths, then check the latest number of CV-19 deaths, the virus has easily become the 3rd largest cause.
Other reputable sites show much more current data....here's just one of many.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200818/covid-the-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-the-us