Higher Prices Coming

3% inflation as an average is normal and that is what bond markets are predicting …they have historically been correct In setting their own bond rates

in 2006 -2007 the fed was raising short term rates ..the bond market disagreed and bid rates lower on bonds while the fed was raising rates ….the bond market smelled trouble and we ended up have the famous inverted yield curve where short term rates ended up higher then long term rates .

the bond market was correct , and the feds inflation fears were unfounded and they now had to lower rates again.

raising rates will take what ever money people have to spend and suck it away like a tax would …that will leave less money to be spent on goods and services and that will likely slow us down and tip us towards recession…

the fed will likely have to reverse course and may never even get to implement all the increases it sees doing
 

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hollydolly said:
Well I've been telling you all for the last 2 years the huge prices we're paying for oil and petrol in this country.. currently an average of £1.47 per LITRE for the cheapest unleaded..... not gallon..but litre... there are 4.56 litres in an imperial Gallon , that's £6.70 per gallon... the equivalent of $.9.07 US at the current exchange rate ..per GALLON.

Now our Gas and electricity is set to increase by a massive 50 % per year.. from April this year... but no increases in salaries or pensions... ..
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Wow, we just paid $2.66 a gal. here for a fill up - plus 40 cents off per gallon with the Kroger fuel discount.
 
Liberty said:
Exxon Mobil is moving its headquarters to Houston... long standing jokes about when the big oil companies that have "more money than God" move here, oil is set to boom. Love their big dividend yield. Buy on the dip, its coming...lol

https://businessfacilities.com/2022/02/exxonmobil-is-moving-headquarters-to-houston/
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For anyone who owns longer than two years they would have had a better return from a bank cd then xom provided with dividends the last 15 years…it’s only the last year that even brought xoms return positive for as far out as 15 years

with dividends xom returned 6.54 the last 3 years cagr , 3.20% the last 5 years , 2.56% the last 10 years and 3.03 % the last 15 years cagr..

on the other hand a simple s&p fund with far less risk is up 21.24% cagr the last 3 years , 16.72% the last 5 years , 15.13 the last 10 and 10.17 the last 15 years .

which would you rather have owned ?
 
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mathjak107 said:
For anyone who owns longer than two years they would have had a better return from a bank cd then xom provided with dividends the last 15 years…it’s only the last year that even brought xoms return positive for as far out as 15 years

with dividends xom returned 6.54 the last 3 years cagr , 3.20% the last 5 years , 2.56% the last 10 years and 3.03 % the last 15 years cagr..

on the other hand a simple s&p fund with far less risk is up 21.24% cagr the last 3 years , 16.72% the last 5 years , 15.13 the last 10 and 10.17 the last 15 years .

which would you rather have owned ?
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Ha ha...we play the Exxon game down here. The index funds are fine if you take it out at the right time - timing the market is nearly impossible on a regular basis...give it to you one day and yank it back the next. Yeah, yeah, leave it in and never take it out. Ever wonder what all that money in the market will do for the net generation? Probably squander it. We've got the common index funds, but hey, got to have fun playing with some sidebar bucks too.

Hey, maybe they'll bring back the patch days...lol.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220126006001/en/
 
Aunt Bea said:
The current round of inflation will increase the divide between the haves and the have-nots.

This article from Nerd Wallet is worth reading.

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/data-inflation-poverty

The sad fact is that we can only cut expenses to the bone once, while the cost of the bone continues to increase.
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I had already cut back on groceries last year, last week while ordering groceries I had to reduce my normal cheapest choices, by 50% of what I buy. I just couldn't afford the prices. I don't eat a lot of meat to begin with, now even less. Fresh veggies and fruit? Ha yeah right, so much for a healthy diet. Thankfully I can still afford bananas, until next order???
 
I'm kind of a "price-aholic" when we are shopping. While I'm pushing the cart at the grocery store, while the wife is making her selections, I browse the prices...looking for bargains, etc. Over the past year, I've seen prices rising between 20 and 40 percent on many of the items we usually buy. When were running around, we often stop at a McDonalds for a Senior Coffee and a quick snack. For years, a Senior coffee was 50 cents...now, its 79 cents. Their "Dollar Menu" is now closer to a 2 Dollar Menu.

The "official" rate of inflation is in the 6 to 7% range...according to the government...But the people that come up with those numbers must not be doing much grocery shopping.
 
hollydolly said:
Yes I know all that... but knowing it doesn't help us find the money to pay it....
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I am not sure high fuel taxes are a bad idea. If it limits the number of cars on the road it could be good, and cars cost us all a lot. Not just road maintenance, but think about all of the real estate we have given over to the car, roads and parking lots take up a lot of space.

On the other hand I like the freedom to drive when and where I want and to buy gas as cheaply as possible...
 
Alligatorob said:
I am not sure high fuel taxes are a bad idea. If it limits the number of cars on the road it could be good, and cars cost us all a lot. Not just road maintenance, but think about all of the real estate we have given over to the car, roads and parking lots take up a lot of space.

On the other hand I like the freedom to drive when and where I want and to buy gas as cheaply as possible...
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I think many feel that way force people out of cars .... in some areas more spread out then dense populations...
some places where i live ..... will ask for reliable ways to get to work ( car) as they do not count public transportation as reliable transportation to get to work.
 
Becky1951 said:
I had already cut back on groceries last year, last week while ordering groceries I had to reduce my normal cheapest choices, by 50% of what I buy. I just couldn't afford the prices. I don't eat a lot of meat to begin with, now even less. Fresh veggies and fruit? Ha yeah right, so much for a healthy diet. Thankfully I can still afford bananas, until next order???
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Last year I stopped buying many of the common household items.

I buy small amounts of ground beef, ham, and sausage to use as more of a seasoning than a main course.

I'm eating more oatmeal, eggs, and beans, but I still splurge on coffee, ice cream, and chocolate.

Citrus fruit is high in this area, so I finally switched to a daily glass of tomato juice.

Basic frozen vegetables are still a bargain in this area. The only fresh vegetables I buy at this time of year are carrots, onions, and cabbage.

I'll still find a way to splurge when the seasonal fruits and vegetables become available.

I try to eat healthy overall without focusing on each individual meal.

I'm thankful that I'm not feeding a family with teenagers and several pets.

We'll figure it out, just like we have all of our lives.
 
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Aunt Bea said:
Last year I stopped buying many of the common household items.

I buy small amounts of ground beef, ham, and sausage to use as more of a seasoning than a main course.

I'm eating more oatmeal, eggs, and beans, but I still splurge on coffee, ice cream, and chocolate.

Citrus fruit is high in this area, so I finally switched to a daily glass of tomato juice.

Basic frozen vegetables are still a bargain in this area. The only fresh vegetables I buy at this time of year are carrots, onions, and cabbage.

I'll still find a way to splurge when the seasonal fruits and vegetables become available.

I try to eat healthy overall without focusing on each individual meal.

I'm thankful that I'm not feeding a family with teenagers and several pets.

We'll figure it out, just like we have all of our lives.
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Chicken is my main meat, so many options for various meals.

You mentioned pets, yes pet food has increased a lot.

I have two medium to large dogs, dry dog food has gone up 2.00 a bag within a year, but wow, can dog food is ridiculous now. I give them each a can a day along with dry dog food. I was paying 8.99 for 12 cans, now it's 15.99 for 12 cans.
 
JaniceM said:
I don't know one kind of gas from another, and don't drive, but this last month my heating bill doubled. It's a big worry.
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The US was at one time energy independent -- we produced enough for our own needs and exported. Now production is way down and we import. Even out here in sunny California, where we never see a freezing temperature, our heating bill is way up. If, as a result of the current Russia/Ukraine conflict the US or Russia cuts off Russian energy exports to large parts of Eastern and Central Europe, the resulting competition for alternate sources will drive energyprices up in Europe and the US -- so keep your fingers crossed, it could get much worse.
 
Last week regular gas here in the middle of Canada was $139.9/litre. This week it is $149.9. If you thought that your government was kind and supportive during the nasty Covid days by giving you all that money you were badly mistaken. Now, it is pay back time. Interest rates going up! Groceries going up! Gasoline going up! Home heating fuel going up! Taxes going up! Only the rich are left smiling as they always have in the past. I believe that Creedence Clearwater Revival had it right:

 
Packerjohn said:
Last week regular gas here in the middle of Canada was $139.9/litre. This week it is $149.9. If you thought that your government was kind and supportive during the nasty Covid days by giving you all that money you were badly mistaken. Now, it is pay back time. Interest rates going up! Groceries going up! Gasoline going up! Home heating fuel going up! Taxes going up! Only the rich are left smiling as they always have in the past. I believe that Creedence Clearwater Revival had it right:

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“There are many in this old world of ours who hold that things break about even for all of us. I have observed for example that we all get the same amount of ice. The rich get it in the summertime and the poor get it in the winter." ~Bat Masterson
 
OldBlackMable said:
Oh I know about prices. Now, chitlins cost $3.58 per ten pounds at Walmart. It was a dollar less just six months ago and there ain't hardly any good meat on them. The oil used to fry them has gone up too, I've had to go down to the Korean store and buy a giant tin can for five dollars, and I been getting the short breading from the local store run by indians to make things last further.

Cat food has been terrible. I stopped buying cat food and just began sending the cats out to fend for themselves. I figure the birds be free so what is to stop them?

My husband, bless his soul, stopped going to the liquor store and started moonshining again. That will bring in some money during the summer, after the spring starts moving again and we have flame going and the mash ready. I think we can get about 15 dollars per liter and if we can get a hundred gallons going we should be right for the summer and fall. Lord knows what we will do in the winter.
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OldBlackMable said:
I been thinking of selling my dogs breast milk and tellin people it is my own, things be so bad. God's word, if you aint had dogs milk with pancakes then you ain't been through hard times.
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Yeah, I'm taking this post seriously.. Not. My prediction is this will be a very short lived SF member.
 
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