How Will The War On Ukraine Affect Our Investments?

dseag2 said:
I donated to this organization this week. I absolutely care about the fact that this tragedy is taking place and I've posted quite a bit about it, but I also care about my investments because they will allow me to live comfortably in the future and also donate to causes like this one.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jose-andres-ukraine-refugees-poland/

I think we have the right to discuss investments regardless of what is going on in the world. There are members discussing cooking in this forum. Should they stop because people are going hungry in Ukraine?
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Yes, life does go on. Today, lets "celebrate life" and keep praying for Ukraine.
 

OneEyedDiva said:
Wasn't that the case before this war? I remember being astonished when you posted about your gas prices before.

@JonSR77 I got the article from Robinhood via email. I also got something from Schwab but haven't read it yet. Would you share the feedback you read or hear about from top economists? I agree with your comment about Putin.
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thanks for getting back to me.

I am pretty crazed right now...with a hundred different things. My wife's work is connected to the media. So, with what is going on right now, things are just crazy. Plus her mom is ill, other people around us are ill, we are about 6 weeks past both of us getting COVID (was NOT easy at all)...so, I can try for you...but, you know, everything is viciously hectic.

I have followed Robert Reich a bit...former Labor Secretary. He even has a Facebook page.

He was formerly a professor at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government.

Hmmmm, trying to think of others I have seen discussing things.

Never hurts to look up the Nobel Prize winning economists and see what they are saying. I have done that. And they absolutely make a lot more sense than just any old person.

And, maybe it is prejudiced, but I do tend to look up the folks from the Ivy League...Harvard, Yale and Princeton...and then also the folks from Oxford University.

So that is, at least, a place to start.
 

JonSR77 said:
thanks for getting back to me.

I am pretty crazed right now...with a hundred different things. My wife's work is connected to the media. So, with what is going on right now, things are just crazy. Plus her mom is ill, other people around us are ill, we are about 6 weeks past both of us getting COVID (was NOT easy at all)...so, I can try for you...but, you know, everything is viciously hectic.

I have followed Robert Reich a bit...former Labor Secretary. He even has a Facebook page.

He was formerly a professor at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government.

Hmmmm, trying to think of others I have seen discussing things.

Never hurts to look up the Nobel Prize winning economists and see what they are saying. I have done that. And they absolutely make a lot more sense than just any old person.

And, maybe it is prejudiced, but I do tend to look up the folks from the Ivy League...Harvard, Yale and Princeton...and then also the folks from Oxford University.

So that is, at least, a place to start.
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You're welcome. I'm so sorry for what you've been going through. I hope things will get better for you and your family. I know it's hard to take care of an aging parent who's not well. All of it must be incredibly stressful. You've got enough on your plate. Don't concern yourself about finding things to post. You've given me a good idea about where to start, at least. Take good care!
 
Russia will not want to have anything go wrong with the Ukraine's nuclear plant. Moscow is only 300 miles away from it! You can trust that Putin isn't going to want to have his bottle of vodka start to glow in the dark, LOL!

In Oct 2021 we met with our CFP firm and jointly decided to shift all our accounts to a "Balanced" risk profile. One was already invested under that category, but the larger of the two had been in an interim profile, which the firm calls "Balanced/Moderate Aggressive".

There's not really much difference: the larger acct under "B/MA" was 60-65% stock and 30-35% bonds, while "B" is roughly 50/50.

As of 2022 the portfolio overall dipped in February but as of today has recovered and is slightly higher than it was at YE 2021. I would expect more dips and ascents over the next year or so; the markets move on people's emotions.

We take monthly distributions but the majority of it is tax-free as the firm manages our portfolio with taxes in mind since we're retired. Our CPA has nothing but praise for their work.
 
As one who is at or beyond retirement age, my investments are already set up very conservatively as we do not have time for a recovery in value like a younger person would have. Therefore, theoretically, our mix of stocks and bonds will not suffer dramatically if we go into a recession. If we were to go into a full depression, then all bets are off. But, for now, we stay the course!

As far as what I think will happen, I have no idea. But I know that the longer this conflict continues the more likely other countries will get deeper involved in the conflict. If this happens, the markets will be impacted. And a world conflict would be a real possibility and even a world war could be the longer-term result...God help us if that happens! One big concern I have is that I am not sure what Putin is going to do after he has Ukraine. Invade Poland, Latvia, Estonia, etc. etc. I don't think he is crazy, but he is crazy like a Fox and see's America with a week leader, so now is his time to act!
 
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Pepper said:
There are NO POLITICS allowed on this site. If there were, I would tell you off but good, but since I can't please knock off the comments others can't respond to. Thank you.
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When I say that Putin, the leader of Russia is crazy, you think that is POLITICAL???!!! REALLY? You do understand that speaking about Putin IS NOT POLITICAL, unless the context I used is tied to an American politician or Party! If people are that confused, how can we as a nation ever survive?
 
Timewise 60+ said:
When I say that Putin, the leader of Russia is crazy, you think that is POLITICAL???!!! REALLY? You do understand that speaking about Putin IS NOT POLITICAL, unless the context I used is tied to an American politician or Party! If people are that confused, how can we as a nation ever survive?
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No, no, Putin doesn't fall under politics it is your "America with a week (sic) leader" that is the political comment that I wouldn't be permitted to object to, so a political conversation could not begin. It is nothing personal to do with you, Time. I see you just arrived, so you will see for yourself! Cheers.
 
Pepper said:
No, no, Putin doesn't fall under politics it is your "America with a week (sic) leader" that is the political comment that I wouldn't be permitted to object to, so a political conversation could not begin. It is nothing personal to do with you, Time. I see you just arrived, so you will see for yourself! Cheers.
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Sorry, but my comment stated that "he [Putin} is crazy like a Fox and see's America with a week leader" what I am saying is that Putin sees our President as a weak leader! That my friend is not political, unless you take it out of context!
 
I don't intend this in any way to be mean but we as humans are all related. We are all one species. This is our one little world to all live in together. Please don't take this the wrong way.

it doesn't seem right to me that we should be concerned in the least with any financial concerns while in this world, not far away, are humans, just like you and me being dismembered, maimed, KILLED, as widows scream from the deaths of husbands, while Mothers watch their children being blown up, while blood stains the white snow, while unmentionable horrors are being enacted .
Would our time be better spent in sending thoughts or prayers of love and healing to try to help these souls of suffering instead of worrying how this "inconvenient" war is doing to the housing market or to our investments?
A woman on the "View" was upset because the masses of displaced migrants in Europe would "Inconvenience" her "European vacation plans".

I'm just saying, Can we not think of this as how this will inconvenience us and instead put our attention and blessings on the suffering? Thanks.
 
Gaer, I appreciate your perspective, but I have a different look on it! We are the "breadbasket for the world"!

With what is going on in Ukraine and based on history, famine and disease may very well follow this conflict. If America doesn't maintain its strong economic position and continue to drive forward, we may not be able to lead the fight against the famine and disease that likely will follow in Europe and beyond.

In America, much of this economic strength is tied to family farms and corporate farm companies, that are primarily owned by American investors. Therefore, our success is important as a backstop for Europe, America always have been in modern times...the breadbasket for the world!
 
Timewise 60+ said:
Gaer, I appreciate your perspective, but I have a different look on it! We are the "breadbasket for the world"!

With what is going on in Ukraine and based on history, famine and disease may very well follow this conflict. If America doesn't maintain its strong economic position and continue to drive forward, we may not be able to lead the fight against the famine and disease that likely will follow in Europe and beyond.

In America, much of this economic strength is tied to family farms and corporate farm companies, that are primarily owned by American investors. Therefore, our success is important as a backstop for Europe, America always have been in modern times...the breadbasket for the world!
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If we have a Third World War, and I do believe we will, China will emerge as the new economic leader. The United States will have no money.
Farmers will be hit the worst! The entire world will live in devastation like it has not before known with bio-weapons, nuclear, etc. Money will have no value. People will fight and kill their neighbors for food and clean water.
America will no longer be "the breadbasket" other countries look to. It is now, just as you say but it won't be strong for long.
This may happen tomorrow or a decade from now, but it's been set in motion and it will occur!
This will be not Korea, (though they will nuke islands around them) but Russia, China and the Mideast against the Untied States.
I wish with all my heart this is not true, but it's already in the works. It's in the minds of men.
As always, IMO. Hey! My ancestors are Farmers! I hope the farm community blossoms, but I don't see it now.
 
Gaer said:
If we have a Third World War, and I do believe we will, China will emerge as the new economic leader. The United States will have no money.
Farmers will be hit the worst! The entire world will live in devastation like it has not before known with bio-weapons, nuclear, etc. Money will have no value. People will fight and kill their neighbors for food and clean water.
America will no longer be "the breadbasket" other countries look to. It is now, just as you say but it won't be strong for long.
This may happen tomorrow or a decade from now, but it's been set in motion and it will occur!
This will be not Korea, (though they will nuke islands around them) but Russia, China and the Mideast against the Untied States.
I wish with all my heart this is not true, but it's already in the works. It's in the minds of men.
As always, IMO. Hey! My ancestors are Farmers! I hope the farm community blossoms, but I don't see it now.
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While they do have a 5-yr strategy for becoming the world's new economic leader, China must get its own economic house in order first, and that's not looking good at all right now. China's top 3 industries are either crumbling or on the verge of crumbling.

Xi was no doubt thrilled that Russia invaded Ukraine during China's election year, because he could paint himself a hero, ensuring re-election. However, his economic recovery plans are moving slower than he expected due to rampant corruption, and his new economic policies are inflaming his political opposition. Also, Russia's "victory" is much slower than expected, and the strength of world's support of Ukraine was probably equally unexpected.

If Xi is in the second year of his 5-yr plan, he has mere months to complete 3 years-worth of objectives. The one bright spot, from Xi's perspective, is that he may finally have full control of the Chinese military after just recently replacing its top personnel. Economically, though, China is teetering on disaster....too many eggs in too few baskets.
 
Murrmurr said:
While they do have a 5-yr strategy for becoming the world's new economic leader, China must get its own economic house in order first, and that's not looking good at all right now. China's top 3 industries are either crumbling or on the verge of crumbling.

Xi was no doubt thrilled that Russia invaded Ukraine during China's election year, because he could paint himself a hero, ensuring re-election. However, his economic recovery plans are moving slower than he expected due to rampant corruption, and his new economic policies are inflaming his political opposition. Also, Russia's "victory" is much slower than expected, and the strength of world's support of Ukraine was probably equally unexpected.

If Xi is in the second year of his 5-yr plan, he has mere months to complete 3 years-worth of objectives. The one bright spot, from Xi's perspective, is that he may finally have full control of the Chinese military after just recently replacing its top personnel. Economically, though, China is teetering on disaster....too many eggs in too few baskets.
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Hi MurrMurr! With all due respect, my friend, I stand by my words. Remember I said this war could happen tomorrow or in the next decade.?
Look at all the changes that have occurred in the U.S. in the last two years. In the last YEAR! Five years ago, if someone would have told you what would occur, you would have laughed and said , "Ridiculous! That could NEVER happen!"
Many things can change quickly that are completely unexpected.
IMO.
 
Gaer said:
Hi MurrMurr! With all due respect, my friend, I stand by my words. Remember I said this war could happen tomorrow or in the next decade.?
Look at all the changes that have occurred in the U.S. in the last two years. In the last YEAR! Five years ago, if someone would have told you what would occur, you would have laughed and said , "Ridiculous! That could NEVER happen!"
Many things can change quickly that are completely unexpected.
IMO.
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I'm just saying that China isn't economically stable. It could become the world's new economic leader, but (imo) that wouldn't last...not under Xi, anyway. There's a list of reasons why that I shouldn't go into, but a big one is that people who advise him and report to him lie to him out of self-preservation. In other words, no one wants to give Xi bad news, which is one of the reasons he's been ineffective and too late in resolving China's economic woes.
 
Gaer said:
Hi MurrMurr! With all due respect, my friend, I stand by my words. Remember I said this war could happen tomorrow or in the next decade.?
Look at all the changes that have occurred in the U.S. in the last two years. In the last YEAR! Five years ago, if someone would have told you what would occur, you would have laughed and said , "Ridiculous! That could NEVER happen!"
Many things can change quickly that are completely unexpected.
IMO.
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I understand your perspective, but I disagree if you are talking a true WWIII where all major countries are at war! That would result in a full nuclear war.

After Russia, China, and the USA had 'big bombs' this has never happened! It has never happened because the guy/ gal giving the order to drop/ shoot the first major weapon cannot himself/ herself be assured of survival or their power base or family! It would in fact be suicide, full out nuclear war is not survivable initially and/ or over the long-term.
 
Timewise 60+ said:
I understand your perspective, but I disagree if you are talking a true WWIII where all major countries are at war! That would result in a full nuclear war.

After Russia, China, and the USA had 'big bombs' this has never happened! It has never happened because the guy/ gal giving the order to drop/ shoot the first major weapon cannot himself/ herself be assured of survival or their power base or family! It would in fact be suicide, full out nuclear war is not survivable initially and/ or over the long-term.
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I hope you are right and I am wrong. I already sort of outlined what I think will happen in my thread "My thoughts on the World War" so it's senseless to repeat them again. Many other weapons besides nuclear exist and this might not take place for a decade from now, but IMO,
this will occur. It will only last a few years but will be devastating. I hope with all my heart that I'm wrong about this! Thanks.
 
Gaer said:
I hope you are right and I am wrong. I already sort of outlined what I think will happen in my thread "My thoughts on the World War" so it's senseless to repeat them again. Many other weapons besides nuclear exist and this might not take place for a decade from now, but IMO,
this will occur. It will only last a few years but will be devastating. I hope with all my heart that I'm wrong about this! Thanks.
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I also hope that you are wrong.
 
Chet said:
Innocent people are dying and some are worried how it might affect their investments????
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I don't know if you meant this to be a snarky comment directed at me...but if you did, you're barking up the wrong damned tree. What you do 't know and maybe don't care to know is that I've been praying daily for the Ukrainian people. What's happening there breaks my heart and I've posted my thoughts about the sjtuatjon elsewhere on the forum. BTW since this IS a FINANCIAL section and all of the analysts have been addressing the topic of this thread, I thought I'd pose the question here. @oldmontana

@Gardenlover I donate (on a regular basis) to charities that provide aid in these types of situations substitutions. I'm a very giving, caring person and have never been a selfish person!! People are discussing the rise in gas and food prices since the war. Are they selfish too? SMDH!
 
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Going back to addressing the title of this thread, think Ukraine will be "Ft. Ukraine" and become a strategic training ground for our country and others wishing to
reinforce a strong military presence in the area.

Do see Ukraine joining Nato in the next few years. Financially, that will be a cohesive factor and not a financial deterrent to the markets. It has brought the free world together like nothing else has done in modern history. God bless the people of Ukraine.
 

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