Hurricane Ian headed toward the West Coast of Florida

The latest model shows Ian will go right over the top of our house tomorrow.😢 We are inland so we are hoping only to see a tropical storm with 12+ " of horizontal rain. I am most worried about loss of electricity. I pray for all people in harm's way, stay safe.
You stay safe as well, @Tom52 ! Let us know how you fared.
 

Lots of people choose to stay when evacuation orders are issued, some for good reason some for bad. Evacuation orders are not always well thought out, and typically include more area than really needs evacuating. Powers that be get in a lot more trouble not issuing orders when they should than by overdoing it. That is why I ask the questions above, helps you figure out if you really do need to leave.

One unfortunate result is a lot of unnecessary orders get issued making people a bit immune to them. Kind of the crying wolf syndrome... Then when a bad one comes too many people ignore the orders.

The most common problems people who ignore orders face is having to live in there home without power or water, and perhaps road access for a while. After Dennis we were without power for 2 months, 1 month for water and a useable road. You need a good food and water supply, and a willingness to live without AC. If you have a generator that helps, most small generators will power a refrigerator, but not AC.
My sister said they could not find water in the stores since last Sunday. I had already ordered water for my mom a few days earlier (instacart). And my mom was relieved. My sister was also concerned about water being contaminated during the hurricane. I told her to fill up as many bottles, etc with tap water NOW, before it hit. Nothing wrong with that. Everyone there drinks bottled water. For some reason, they think of tap water as kaka. We grew up drinking tap water. Anyway, lots to think about.
 
My sister was also concerned about water being contaminated during the hurricane. I told her to fill up as many bottles, etc with tap water NOW, before it hit
Also they can drink the water in their water heater. If supplies are cut off they can just tap it, if its not cut off but they are worried about contamination they can shut their water off and drain it, then turn the water back on.

Having been without water a few times I learned to be creative. My biggest discomfort was being with AC... During the storm you can't open windows, the house can become a sauna.
 

I don't know if my nieces, nephew and their families have left the Tampa area or not. Haven't heard a word from them. After Fiona devastated P.R., I did hear from my family there. Lots of damage, and they are busy assisting as one is a doctor and the other a chemistry professor.
 
My sister said they could not find water in the stores since last Sunday. I had already ordered water for my mom a few days earlier (instacart). And my mom was relieved. My sister was also concerned about water being contaminated during the hurricane. I told her to fill up as many bottles, etc with tap water NOW, before it hit. Nothing wrong with that. Everyone there drinks bottled water. For some reason, they think of tap water as kaka. We grew up drinking tap water. Anyway, lots to think about.
If your mom has a tub, be sure to have her fill it up. It can then be used to flush the toilet if nothing else.
You're right about people and their tap water phobia. Seems simple enough, a cheap re-fill able water filter would help. Of course, if one gets thirsty enough, tap water is suddenly fine. ;)
 
The latest forecast has the storm making landfall as a category 3/4 with ~130 mph winds. Landfall is predicted between Cape Coral and Sarasota, well south of Tampa Bay. This is of course bad news for folks near there, however it is good news for the Tampa area. Charlotte Harbor will get the worst of the storm surge, and while it will be devastating to some, it is much less venerable than Tampa Bay. @palides2021 and @OneEyedDiva if it stays on this track your people should be ok.

Storm surge is now forecast to be something in the 9+ ft range from about Bonita Springs to Port Charlotte, including Ft Meyers. @palides2021 storm surge at Tarpon Springs in now forecast to be minimal. @OneEyedDiva same for Tampa. NOAA has an interactive storm surge forecast map at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/220203.shtml?inundation#contents

A warning storm surges are much harder to forecast than hurricane winds or track. We learned that in Hurricane Dennis, we had a 2 to 4 foot forecast and got 12 feet. It can happen... Fortunately it is usually the other way, storm surges are usually over forecast, let's hope this one is.

Also the forecast track is subject to change, which could change things big time for Tampa and Tarpon Springs. However we are now within ~24 hours of landfall. Forecasts are pretty accurate at that point, not 100%, but pretty good. Needs watching!

Storm surges are created by wind pushing water against a shore. When funneled into a large shallow water bay (like Tampa Bay) it is at it's worst. Other factors can impact the surge including the low pressure in the storm lifting water a bit, the natural tide level at the time, and wave runup. In the northern hemisphere hurricane winds circulate counterclockwise. So in this storm the wind to the east of the eye will be pushing water up. To the west of the eye the winds could actually lower water levels, I have seen this several times kind of eerie to see a bay drained in a storm. Also the storm is moving at some rate ~10 mph northward add to the wind speed east of the eye. The northeast quadrant of the storm is usually most dangerous.
Hoping it just weakens when it touches the coast as many do.
I am hoping that too, however most recent forecasts are playing the possibility down. Seems wind shear is less...
 
I have never been through a hurricane, we occasionally get tornados but I have never been near one. We did have some really bad rain and wind a few years ago. I lost a huge tree, just came out of the ground. Took out my power for 3 days. I had my 85 year old Mom living with me. I was worried about the heat (texas) but she did fine. Me not so much.

When we do get bad weather, I always make sure to have plenty of food, water, dog food. I fill the tubs with water for the toilets. Make sure I have plenty of flashlights and batteries. I have a gas grill I can cook on and a gas fireplace. Summer and winter I am prepared but I don't think I could do the no power thing again in hot weather. That is another thing I save for, if necessary, I will pack up the dogs and go to a hotel!

Couple of years ago a neighbor was afraid of another one of my trees doing the same thing. It was a big pecan and I did not want to take it out. He got to my son when I had a hip replacement, my son let him hire a tree service and cut it down. He (the neighbor) paid 1,000 bucks to have it done. I was not happy but I did not make a fuss out of respect for my son just wanting to help take care of me.

I hope all of you are stocked and ready! If you live there you know what to expect and what to do. I worry about us older folk that may not have the ability or funds to fully feel safe. Watch after one another, take care of one another. If someone needs help and you can offer help, please do so. I have been blessed and when I need to step in I can do so!
 
My sister said they could not find water in the stores since last Sunday. I had already ordered water for my mom a few days earlier (instacart). And my mom was relieved. My sister was also concerned about water being contaminated during the hurricane. I told her to fill up as many bottles, etc with tap water NOW, before it hit. Nothing wrong with that. Everyone there drinks bottled water. For some reason, they think of tap water as kaka. We grew up drinking tap water. Anyway, lots to think about.
The only tap water I like the taste of is Hackensack, N.J. tap water. Had it at a conference in a hotel and thought it was fancy bottled water. Had it again with lunch at a Chinese buffet. I never drink water with my meals but that's how good that water tastes! I filter our tap water and I can tell the difference, though I rarely drink just plain water.

Make sure they don't store the water on the floor. It's recommended not to drink even bottled water that flood waters have touched,. I hope your family stays safe.
 
About the only "good" thing about hurricanes is that those in its path usually have several days to prepare for it....unlike tornadoes which can ravage an area with little warning.
We were stationed in N. Carolina, in 1966 when the remnants of a hurricane came through...over 100 miles inland. The winds were still so strong that it it snapped a big pecan tree in the backyard. Luckily, were were in USAF base housing which had a shelter in the house, and we were able to ride it out. As strong as it was inland, it did major damage to the more coastal regions.
Living along the seashore in the Gulf/Eastern states is real nice, but every year there is a risk of losing everything.
I am here on the Eastern side.. not far from NC. We are expecting the remnants of Ian... heavy rain throughout the weekend. My prayers for residents of Florida.
 
I would like to share my experience with hurricanes in South Florida.

In the 80's, Andrew hit South Florida. It was expected to hit the middle part of South Florida, and we had no window shutters in our condo (built in the 70's) so we just moved the furniture to the middle of the room and drove up to Central Florida to stay with my hubby's parents. My brother-in-law left his home in the middle part of South Florida and went to the southern part, which is where Andrew actually hit. He said they sheltered in place in the bathroom and it sounded like a "freight train" was coming through the house. Those were the days when the winds were more damaging than the storm surge. Houses in South Florida were built to Hurricane Code after that.

When we bought a new house in a planned community in 1998, the builder offered either metal panels that could be screwed on the outside of the windows with bolts or accordion shutters that could simply be closed and locked. We could barely afford any upgrades to our house, but my dear father contributed the money for the accordion shutters. For days prior to a hurricane, we would see our neighbors up on ladders installing these heavy metal panels one at a time. We just closed and locked ours. Many would just leave the panels up until hurricane season was over. I felt so lucky. My father passed, but my mother had the same shutters for her house, so it was just a matter of closing everything up.

In 2005, we went through 2 major hurricanes. They were so far up the alphabet that it was Wilma that hit us. We closed the shutters, couldn't see anything outside and listened to the wind that took down a 2-story tree and removed 21 roof tiles from our house. As @Alligatorob said, the worst part is that the house being closed up becomes stuffy and hot. Afterwards, we went through 3 days without power, and the grocery stores closed early so by the time I got home from work I couldn't buy anything. One night, we were eating canned tuna and chips for dinner. That's when I said, "okay, we're getting out of here". We sold our home and my mother's home within a couple of months and moved everyone to Dallas.

It seems that the longer someone has lived in an area and has not been affected by a hurricane, the less likely they are to evacuate. It is the "newbies" moving there that follow the advice. I just hope for the best for those who have chosen to shelter in place.
 
I would like to share my experience with hurricanes in South Florida.

In the 80's, Andrew hit South Florida. It was expected to hit the middle part of South Florida, and we had no window shutters in our condo (built in the 70's) so we just moved the furniture to the middle of the room and drove up to Central Florida to stay with my hubby's parents. My brother-in-law left his home in the middle part of South Florida and went to the southern part, which is where Andrew actually hit. He said they sheltered in place in the bathroom and it sounded like a "freight train" was coming through the house. Those were the days when the winds were more damaging than the storm surge. Houses in South Florida were built to Hurricane Code after that.

When we bought a new house in a planned community in 1998, the builder offered either metal panels that could be screwed on the outside of the windows with bolts or accordion shutters that could simply be closed and locked. We could barely afford any upgrades to our house, but my dear father contributed the money for the accordion shutters. For days prior to a hurricane, we would see our neighbors up on ladders installing these heavy metal panels one at a time. We just closed and locked ours. Many would just leave the panels up until hurricane season was over. I felt so lucky. My father passed, but my mother had the same shutters for her house, so it was just a matter of closing everything up.

In 2005, we went through 2 major hurricanes. They were so far up the alphabet that it was Wilma that hit us. We closed the shutters, couldn't see anything outside and listened to the wind that took down a 2-story tree and removed 21 roof tiles from our house. As @Alligatorob said, the worst part is that the house being closed up becomes stuffy and hot. Afterwards, we went through 3 days without power, and the grocery stores closed early so by the time I got home from work I couldn't buy anything. One night, we were eating canned tuna and chips for dinner. That's when I said, "okay, we're getting out of here". We sold our home and my mother's home within a couple of months and moved everyone to Dallas.

It seems that the longer someone has lived in an area and has not been affected by a hurricane, the less likely they are to evacuate. It is the "newbies" moving there that follow the advice. I just hope for the best for those who have chosen to shelter in place.

I must say I happy you are here but you have also learned that we have our own set of weather problems. They are not as bad as coastal cities but still come with a few challenges. Most everyone adapts well except for the heat. I have lived here all my life but after age 30 I found the heat oppressive. I guess it is a trade off, you live in a paradise close to the ocean or you live where there are other weather problems. Now that I am older I would like to live near the water but the heat is not toleralbe for me. I would just be happy with a vacation near the water in the fall and early spring. I don't want to swim in the sea, I just want to sit or walk a long the beach.
 
The latest forecast has the storm making landfall as a category 3/4 with ~130 mph winds. Landfall is predicted between Cape Coral and Sarasota, well south of Tampa Bay. This is of course bad news for folks near there, however it is good news for the Tampa area. Charlotte Harbor will get the worst of the storm surge, and while it will be devastating to some, it is much less venerable than Tampa Bay. @palides2021 and @OneEyedDiva if it stays on this track your people should be ok.

Storm surge is now forecast to be something in the 9+ ft range from about Bonita Springs to Port Charlotte, including Ft Meyers. @palides2021 storm surge at Tarpon Springs in now forecast to be minimal. @OneEyedDiva same for Tampa. NOAA has an interactive storm surge forecast map at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/220203.shtml?inundation#contents

A warning storm surges are much harder to forecast than hurricane winds or track. We learned that in Hurricane Dennis, we had a 2 to 4 foot forecast and got 12 feet. It can happen... Fortunately it is usually the other way, storm surges are usually over forecast, let's hope this one is.

Also the forecast track is subject to change, which could change things big time for Tampa and Tarpon Springs. However we are now within ~24 hours of landfall. Forecasts are pretty accurate at that point, not 100%, but pretty good. Needs watching!

Storm surges are created by wind pushing water against a shore. When funneled into a large shallow water bay (like Tampa Bay) it is at it's worst. Other factors can impact the surge including the low pressure in the storm lifting water a bit, the natural tide level at the time, and wave runup. In the northern hemisphere hurricane winds circulate counterclockwise. So in this storm the wind to the east of the eye will be pushing water up. To the west of the eye the winds could actually lower water levels, I have seen this several times kind of eerie to see a bay drained in a storm. Also the storm is moving at some rate ~10 mph northward add to the wind speed east of the eye. The northeast quadrant of the storm is usually most dangerous.

I am hoping that too, however most recent forecasts are playing the possibility down. Seems wind shear is less...
Thanks so much for your information and updates, @Alligatorob ! It's much appreciated! :)
 
This may be a dumb question and of coarse doesn't help with water surges and flooding. But I've wondered why houses in hurricane prone areas don't have shutters built into the houses. I wonder this every time I see people buying lumber and nailing it over the windows.
Excellent idea.
 
Thanks so much for your information and updates, @Alligatorob ! It's much appreciated!
I do my best, I know this is of concern to a lot of people here. Having lived most of my life very close to the Gulf Coast, hurricane alley, I have learned a few things. One of my earliest memories are of a great Uncle who had a ranch on the north shore of Lake Okeechobee and helped in the rescue and recovery in Belle Glade after the 1928 hurricane https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_Okeechobee_hurricane . More than 2,000 died. Hard to forget his stories, and it started me on a life long interest in Hurricanes.

Also had relatives who survived Hurricane Audrey, over 400 known dead in Louisiana another childhood story I couldn't forget. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Audrey
 
Best of luck to all those in it's path.

Keep all emergency supplies in a safe place and know where they are. Don't wait to go to a drawer or closet when the power goes. Kind of late to do things even get gas that should've been done last week so make last minute trips sparingly. Make sure if you're charging anything last minute it's on a surge suppresor. It won't be lighting but intermittent power outages until it's out for good that can create electronic damage.

I used to store stuff under the premise the roof might give/blow off in other words put important stuff in water proof container or plastic and store low, less chance of flying away. That along with putting as much unnecessary stuff away again so if something happens less chance to fly away or get wet.

I've been through several am lucky power loss was the biggest issue and neighbor had a chain link fence that held and caught a lot of debris. Close calls including a downed tree less than 20ft from car. Stress and boredom. Stuff can be replaced. And stay away from windows if the windows if the wind is blowing into or towards them.

Again good luck, stay safe and hope to see all posting with good news.

Peace
 
I have been through several major hurricanes.
Hurricane Camille in 1969, a catagory 5. One so bad that even railroad tracks were ripped up and twisted into pretzels by the 20+ foot storm surge.
and Hurricane Ivan in 2004.

I was not a home owner in 1969 but I was in 2004. Ivan stripped most of the shingles from my house. FEMA promptly wrote me a check to cover the repair bill. Without electric for a week or so. HUGE problem getting gas to run my generator. Generator was only strong enough to keep the refrigerator going, a few lights and a fan.
 
Track forecast is similar to yesterday, landfall is expected at about Ft Meyers. Wind forecast is up a little to 140 mph, a category 4 storm. Water levels have not really started to rise along the Gulf Coast, but they will soon. Key West had a peak storm surge of about 2 to 3 feet around midnight, down a little now. Winds are picking up, but not hurricane force on land yet.

A good place to look at the wind patterns is: https://www.windfinder.com/#8/26.1086/-83.2379 you can zoom in on the area of the storm pretty easily.

A good place to see real time water levels is: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/storm/Ian.html . Again you have to zoom in on the area of the storm, and then click on the individual stations.

The worst will come this afternoon.
 

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