If you think we've seen the worst in the stock market

[seadoug]

The DJIA futures are down another 1500 points going into Monday and we also have the following as a predictor.

UPDATED SUN, APR 6 20258:10 PM EDT

Nikkei 225 and Topix plunge 6% on open, futures trading suspended due to circuit breaker​

Here's the prediction for the Dow futures.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/06/business/stocks-futures-sunday-tariffs/index.html

Let's all just drink and dance around while we burn our 401k statements and use them to heat our homes.

 

[smiley]

how about 'storm' a famous house or two? - let you pick the color!

 

[Aunt Bea]

 

[Timewise 60+]

Funny how 'markets' work! Falling stocks are always followed by rising stocks, the only question is how long it will take...! If this does not always happen, then it won't matter because nothing will have value anymore, especially cash! God forbid...

 

[Liberty]

You got it Timewise...that's when you can make the most money - when stocks are low, low, low.

 

[mathjak107]

You got it Timewise...that's when you can make the most money - when stocks are low, low, low.

or sustain the worst losses as low turns out no where near low and it can take a decade or two to get back .

the most money is actually made buying high and selling higher as the trend is your friend and everyone along the way makes money , except the one guy at the end of the trend .

when markets are headed down the next stop is usually lower .

eventually many investors throw in the towel or hit stop losses losing money on the way down .

so once again myths that sound good like buy low sell high rarely end up playing out that way .

but buy high sell higher almost always pans out as the trend is your friend

 

[bobcat]

If no agreements are reached, the EU's 27 nation block seeks to present a united front against the Trump tariffs. They will meet today, and vote on Wednesday for counter-tariffs. If they are approved, it will affect billions of dollars of U.S. exports to their countries. As Hans Solo would say: "I've got a bad feeling about this".

 

[smiley]

sometimes I get the feeling that some people wanna try and control the whole world ; this has never been possible only the Almighty can do that and so ultimately the rest of us meglomaniacs fail and cause a lot of mess trying to do it??

 

[bobcat]

Well, after an ill-advised broadside cannonball exchange with the rest of the world, let's hope we can repair the damage.
Keep the lifeboats ready.

 

[StarSong]

Well, after an ill-advised broadside cannonball exchange with the rest of the world, let's hope we can repair the damage.
Keep the lifeboats ready.

View attachment 415170

I think the US has well and truly raised the ire of most of the rest of the world. It will take better actions and plenty of time before other countries consider restoring us to their good graces.

Let's face it, it takes a lot to piss off Canada, but we managed to do a bang up job of it.

 

[mathjak107]

i wouldnt be surprised if some countries put us on a ban list until the tariffs are removed .

no travel and goods we need being sent here as well as ban our goods there

 

[bobcat]

This also puts the Fed in an extremely difficult position.
Tariffs are bound to cause inflation, as well as slowed economic growth, making it a paralyzing situation for central banks.

If central bankers raise interest rates to clamp down on inflation, they restrict economic growth. Cutting rates, meanwhile, could cause prices to spiral higher again.

Just as it looked like interest rate cuts were coming because of easing inflation, now the situation has changed.

 

[mathjak107]

This also puts the Fed in an extremely difficult position.
Tariffs are bound to cause inflation, as well as slowed economic growth, making it a paralyzing situation for central banks.

If central bankers raise interest rates to clamp down on inflation, they restrict economic growth. Cutting rates, meanwhile, could cause prices to spiral higher again.

Just as it looked like interest rate cuts were coming because of easing inflation, now the situation has changed.

the tariffs may not cause inflation as inflation is more a monetary phenomenon. people and the media use the word inflation but it isn’t inflation

they are using the wrong terminology

Adding tariffs cannot cause inflation anymore than removing tariffs can cause deflation.

There are two schools of thought regarding inflation:

• “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” -- Milton Friedman, 1976 Nobel Prize in Economics winner. That is, expanding the money supply too quickly causes inflation.
• “Persistent high inflation is always and everywhere a fiscal phenomenon, in which the central bank is a monetary accomplice." -- Thomas Sargent, 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics winner. That is, too much persistent federal government spending causes persistent inflation.

According to the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL), inflation is primarily caused by fiscal policy rather than monetary policy. According to this theory:

• Inflation occurs when government debt is larger than what people think the government will repay through future budget surpluses.
• The real (that is, inflation-adjusted) value of government debt, which declines with inflation, is equal to the present value of expected future fiscal surpluses.

Notice that neither tariffs nor relatively high US labor costs cause inflation. They cannot.

But what tariffs can do is change the relative price of imported goods compared to domestic goods. For example, we can expect tariffs to cause the price of Vizio TVs made in China but sold in the USA to go up relative to the price of Broadway tickets or a season's lift pass to Deer Valley. That isn't inflation; that is a change in relative prices. We consumers react to changes in relative prices of goods - in aggregate, we will buy fewer Chinese made TVs and instead spend the money on, for example, Broadway tickets and a pass to Disney World.

 

[Aunt Bea]

This also puts the Fed in an extremely difficult position.
Tariffs are bound to cause inflation, as well as slowed economic growth, making it a paralyzing situation for central banks.

If central bankers raise interest rates to clamp down on inflation, they restrict economic growth. Cutting rates, meanwhile, could cause prices to spiral higher again.

Just as it looked like interest rate cuts were coming because of easing inflation, now the situation has changed.

If interest rates increase the deficit will shrink and if the additional revenue from tariffs is used to reduce the deficit it may be good value for the country even if it becomes more difficult for the average American.

I honestly don’t believe that will happen.

It’s all very interesting until it starts to impact us as individuals.

 

[bobcat]

the tariffs may not cause inflation as inflation is more a monetary phenomenon. people and the media use the word inflation but it isn’t inflation

they are using the wrong terminology

Adding tariffs cannot cause inflation anymore than removing tariffs can cause deflation.

There are two schools of thought regarding inflation:

• “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” -- Milton Friedman, 1976 Nobel Prize in Economics winner. That is, expanding the money supply too quickly causes inflation.
• “Persistent high inflation is always and everywhere a fiscal phenomenon, in which the central bank is a monetary accomplice." -- Thomas Sargent, 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics winner. That is, too much persistent federal government spending causes persistent inflation.

According to the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL), inflation is primarily caused by fiscal policy rather than monetary policy. According to this theory:

• Inflation occurs when government debt is larger than what people think the government will repay through future budget surpluses.
• The real (that is, inflation-adjusted) value of government debt, which declines with inflation, is equal to the present value of expected future fiscal surpluses.

Notice that neither tariffs nor relatively high US labor costs cause inflation. They cannot.

But what tariffs can do is change the relative price of imported goods compared to domestic goods. For example, we can expect tariffs to cause the price of Vizio TVs made in China but sold in the USA to go up relative to the price of Broadway tickets or a season's lift pass to Deer Valley. That isn't inflation; that is a change in relative prices. We consumers react to changes in relative prices of goods - in aggregate, we will buy fewer Chinese made TVs and instead spend the money on, for example, Broadway tickets and a pass to Disney World.

Well, with all due respect, I think I will take the word of the leading expert on the matter.
Federal Reserve chief says Trump tariffs likely to raise inflation and slow US economic growth

 

[mathjak107]

Well, with all due respect, I think I will take the word of the leading expert on the matter.
Federal Reserve chief says Trump tariffs likely to raise inflation and slow US economic growth

the cpi is a price change index , it reflects changes in prices in the 1500 mini economies that make this country up .

it is referred to as an inflation index but what causes inflation is a whole other thing .
It reflects the results of the price changes .

the tariffs cause price changes not inflation.

but the price changes are reflected in an inflation index as a percentage

its like when your sick is measured in temperature of your fever , but fever isn’t making you sick , it’s the result of another factor .

the cpi is measuring the temperature of the economy via price changes expressed as a percentage in the index like the scale of a fever thermometer

but inflation is caused by the factors i listed.

 

[Brookswood]

The DJIA futures are down another 1500 points going into Monday and we also have the following as a predictor.

UPDATED SUN, APR 6 20258:10 PM EDT

Nikkei 225 and Topix plunge 6% on open, futures trading suspended due to circuit breaker​

Here's the prediction for the Dow futures.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/06/business/stocks-futures-sunday-tariffs/index.html

Let's all just drink and dance around while we burn our 401k statements and use them to heat our homes.

Burn your statement if you like.

IMO, people are better off reading books like - The Simple Path to Wealth. You’ll learn how to allocate your investments to ride out these market downturns.

 

[Brookswood]

Well, with all due respect, I think I will take the word of the leading expert on the matter.
Federal Reserve chief says Trump tariffs likely to raise inflation and slow US economic growth

Nobody, not even the FR chief, knows how this will turn out a year from now.

 

[bobcat]

the cpi is a price change index , it reflects changes in prices in the 1500 mini economies that make this country up .

it is referred to as an inflation index but what causes inflation is a whole other thing .
It reflects the results of the price changes .

the tariffs cause price changes not inflation.

but the price changes are reflected in an inflation index as a percentage

its like when your sick is measured in temperature of your fever , but fever isn’t making you sick , it’s the result of another factor .

the cpi is measuring the temperature of the economy via price changes expressed as a percentage in the index like the scale of a fever thermometer

but inflation is caused by the factors i listed.

If you pay more for a basket of goods than you normally would (Based on manufacturing costs, delivery, and demand), the price is inflated. Whether these inflated prices contribute to an "inflation rate" remains to be seen (Will people demand higher wages to pay for the goods, thus forcing companies to raise prices further to offset wage growth), thus creating a spiral.

Whether heavy rains cause flooding, or it's due to inadequate drainage is a matter of debate, but it really doesn't matter when you're treading water.

 

[bobcat]

Nobody, not even the FR chief, knows how this will turn out a year from now.

No one can predict the future, but considerable experience helps.

 

[hearlady]

I predict............we're all gonna be OK.
How do I know? I don't but I'm willing to wait it out for a while before I have a sit down at the kitchen table.

 

[mathjak107]

If you pay more for a basket of goods than you normally would (Based on manufacturing costs, delivery, and demand), the price is inflated. Whether these inflated prices contribute to an "inflation rate" remains to be seen (Will people demand higher wages to pay for the goods, thus forcing companies to raise prices further to offset wage growth), thus creating a spiral.

Whether heavy rains cause flooding, or it's due to inadequate drainage is a matter of debate, but it really doesn't matter when you're treading water.

you still don’t understand the difference between cause and effect . a rise in the cpi is the effect of not all but certain prices rising .

inflation is caused by other factors and we know this because the smartest people on the planet with nobel awards in economics have taught us so .

so i will leave it at that

 

[bobcat]

you still don’t understand the difference between cause and effect . a rise in the cpi is the effect of not all but certain prices rising .

inflation is caused by other factors and we know this because the smartest people on the planet with nobel awards in economy have taught us so .

so i will leave it at that

We agree to disagree, and I will leave it at that.

 

[dilettante]

There isn't much to discuss here because people already have their opinions given to them by the media.

 

[rgp]

I believe the goal is to bring a host of manufacturing back to the US. And I for one am in favor of that. I would rather pay a bit more for something manufactured here , than some [bargain] built outside our borders.

Think about it, most of the projected jobs restored and recreated are 'blue-collar' in nature. And that is a huge percentage of us here.

My stocks are down just now about $18,000 but I do believe it will come back, and since I just roll mine over [take no cash benefit] I'm buying now at a lower rate.

Ok, I'll be the ugly American. I want to get back to when America was number one in all aspects and I believe this is a start in that direction.

And the rest of the world will know it and respect it.