Inflation information and discussion

[Brookswood]

The numbers for January are in and it looks like 2% max for inflation is not going to happen for a while.

Sadly, the over all price increase year over year is 3.0%. The “core” inflation (for those of you who don’t use energy or eat) is 3.3% for the year.

Given that the Federal government is currently running a deficit of about 1.5 trillion dollars a year, this should not be a big surprise. 2025 is smashing through the already high 2024 year of deficit spending.

• The government is running a cumulative deficit of $710 billion so far in FY2025— $200 billion more than the same period in the prior fiscal year.

 

[MACKTEXAS]

All of that, yet interest rates were cut.

 

[Teacher Terry]

My prediction is that inflation will skyrocket during 2025.

 

[Brookswood]

My prediction is that inflation will skyrocket during 2025.

The fiscal irresponsibility of our 2024 Federal spending has probably baked that into the 2025 cake.

 

[Harry Le Hermit]

Yes, it has been ticking up for a few months now.

Shelter continues to be the biggest contributor. Typically this time of year, energy increases are a big contributor.
The troubling Real Earnings report, got little attention, yet had inflation adjusted weekly earnings now receding to June 2024 levels. It is hard to imagine an increase in demand, without it is debt related.

It was mentioned the federal deficit, which does not include the cost of the ballooning Treasury Bills, which now stands at $6.8T. That figure is included in the debt to public numbers, just not a line item in the federal budget.

 

[Lethe200]

FYI 3% inflation rate is slightly LOWER than the historical average.

" Inflation Rate in the United States averaged 3.30 percent from 1914 until 2024, reaching an all time high of 23.70 percent in June of 1920 and a record low of -15.80 percent in June of 1921. "
- TradingEconomics.com

 

[Harry Le Hermit]

FYI 3% inflation rate is slightly LOWER than the historical average.

" Inflation Rate in the United States averaged 3.30 percent from 1914 until 2024, reaching an all time high of 23.70 percent in June of 1920 and a record low of -15.80 percent in June of 1921. "
- TradingEconomics.com

The 1990s, or golden age, also averaged 3.0%.

 

[againstthegrain]

The fiscal irresponsibility of our 2024 Federal spending has probably baked that into the 2025 cake.

Yeah federal spending was COMPLETELY under control prior to 2024.