Investment income on the decline again

I took Social Security at 63, when my job was eliminated. I have no intention of going back into the job market, and I would rather keep my money in equities and forego any increases in Social Security. No, the market isn't doing well these days, but it was up over 700 points today, so there is still a chance for increases above what Social Security can provide.
 

Ours dropped $6,000 past few months, and the adviser said will only get worse, closed the account and transferred all to fix term investment at the bank (3 years at 3%) although if want to redeem some money from it, there is a small withdraw payment. Our main concern was the way the stock market is, and getting worse how long before we lose the lot?
 

mathjak107 said:
Glad your advisor has a crystal ball as to what’s next …instead of being a lowly advisor with that predicting power he should be a billionaire
Click to expand...
Hardly need a crystal ball!
How much has the stock market dropped in 2022?

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has dropped nearly 33 percent so far in 2022, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 20 percent while the world's best-known cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, shed nearly 60 percent of its value.4 days ago!!
 
your Post makes it sound like he pulled you out after the fall not at the highs …

so yea ,if he recently pulled you out and said we have a lot more to go then how the heck would he know that ..

we are likely closer to a bottom .

getting out is easy , just sell .

the real hard part is getting back in .

most people end up either not going back and giving up more then they saved by bailing out over time ..the rest dip their toes and miss the biggest gains before they get back in all they pulled out .

the answer is no one knows how much more we have to go.

any advisor that tells me flee my investments ,that they know we have a lot more to go ,is one I would avoid.

those Who predict have awful records of predicting….

no one can predict the worst days to be out and few can predict even the worst time frames to be out on a broader scale

as they end up missing the juiciest gains .

on the other hand , not missing the best days is easy , just let long term investments ride through .

University of Michigan Professor H. Nejat Seyhun analyzed 7,802 trading days for the 31 years from 1963 to 1993 and concluded that just 90 days generated 95% of all the years’ market gains — an average of just three days per year. miss those few days and you hurt your return .

It is near impossible to not only reliably miss the worst days but it is just as hard to miss the worst time…

catching the best days is easy as pie ... just be invested . NO PREDICTING NEEDED .
 
Last edited:
HarryHawk said:
To me, it makes sense to plan that either you and/or your spouse is going to live a long time. If you happen to both die young, who cares?

Of course if you need the money now, you need the money now.
Click to expand...
Many who delay wait years to first spend more when ss kicks in …

that's nuts in my opinion .

rather the budget should stay the same inflation adjusted no matter if one delays or not .

all that should happen is you lay out the ss upfront you aren’t getting if you take it early and put it back later when the bigger check kicks in .

if one has to wait to spend more they likely can’t afford to delay
 
Never forget harry browns rule number one

1. No one can predict the future. Period.​

No one has the foggiest idea what’s going to happen next week, let alone next year. The future is an inherently uncertain place that changes all the time. No one - absolutely no one - is omniscient.

That includes YOU. Beware Excessive Self-Regard Tendency. It’s tempting to believe that you have insights that others don’t have, and see things others can’t (or don’t) see. It’s also tempting to believe other people, like advisors or fund managers, have this capability. They don’t.

Embracing the uncertainty and change that exists in the world is the first step toward becoming a sane investor. Once you truly grok the truth that the future is essentially unpredictable, you stop trying - and you stop making stupid mistakes that lose money, which helps you get better results.
 
mathjak107 said:
Never forget harry browns rule number one

1. No one can predict the future. Period.​

No one has the foggiest idea what’s going to happen next week, let alone next year. The future is an inherently uncertain place that changes all the time. No one - absolutely no one - is omniscient.

That includes YOU. Beware Excessive Self-Regard Tendency. It’s tempting to believe that you have insights that others don’t have, and see things others can’t (or don’t) see. It’s also tempting to believe other people, like advisors or fund managers, have this capability. They don’t.

Embracing the uncertainty and change that exists in the world is the first step toward becoming a sane investor. Once you truly grok the truth that the future is essentially unpredictable, you stop trying - and you stop making stupid mistakes that lose money, which helps you get better results.
Click to expand...
So you are predicting if you buy and hold you will make money?
 
there are quite a few low ulcer portfolios as well one can use that protect in all but a tight money recession like now ..but these are temporary before they lead to one of the 4 major outcomes .

recession

depression

prosper

high inflation / weak dollar

there are portfolios like Harry brown’s permanent portfolio that can protect in all four of those .

as harry brown said more than 40 years ago , the temporary stage like we are in now will not have any assets do well and he is right as that is where we are today.

but you can’t time when do be in which asset class
 
Don M. said:
Delaying SS might be of benefit IF a person knew how long they will live. Waiting until age 70 to claim benefits is of little value if they only live to age 71, I signed up as soon as I became eligible, and my wife began receiving spousal benefits when she became eligible. Adding it all up, we've received several times what I paid in over my working career....wish some of my other "investments" were doing that well.
Click to expand...
The same could be said of many annuities.

I could also say, "Taking SS at 62 might be of benefit IF a person knew how long they will live." Knowing how long we will live works both ways.

I offer the suggestion to those whose situation is such that they may benefit from it. It is a very individual choice and one that many people should consider as an alternative to a traditional single premium immediate annuity (SPIA), IMO. It should not be dismissed simply because we have no assurance of how long we may live.

Besides in this time of high inflation, getting a 32% bigger check (compared to FRA) that is COLA'd is rather comforting. YMMV.
 
Last edited:
Brookswood said:
The same could be said of many annuities.

I could also say, "Taking SS at 62 might be of benefit IF a person knew how long they will live." Knowing how long we will live works both ways.

I offer the suggestion to those whose situation is such that they may benefit from it. It is a very individual choice and one that many people should consider as an alternative to a traditional single premium immediate annuity (SPIA), IMO. It should not be dismissed simply because we have no assurance of how long we may live.

Besides in this time of high inflation, getting a 32% bigger check (compared to FRA) that is COLA'd is rather comforting. YMMV.
Click to expand...
What we found comforting is taking ss earlier and stopping the bleeding from our money fronting ourselves the ss we were not collecting .

we are 7 years into retirement and even with the dip we are ahead of the game then if we delayed and kept spending our own invested dollars or money that could have been invested if we had the ss.

it can take up to age 90 for delaying ss to equal early ss and a balanced portfolio….

even then odds are higher for the balanced portfolio seeing average returns then we do hitting 90
 
Here is a chart showing how long delaying will take to equal early ss and not spending down a balanced portfolio to delay that ss

i-KmsGcPL-S.png
 
No one has a crystal ball, but it is nice to see that the Dow has increased over 1500 points during the last two days. My philosophy is that 1) there is still interest in the market, 2) it will get close to where I was before the drops or 3) the gains will enable me to ride out the losses that may be ahead.
 
Brookswood said:
The same could be said of many annuities.

I could also say, "Taking SS at 62 might be of benefit IF a person knew how long they will live." Knowing how long we will live works both ways.

I offer the suggestion to those whose situation is such that they may benefit from it. It is a very individual choice and one that many people should consider as an alternative to a traditional single premium immediate annuity (SPIA), IMO. It should not be dismissed simply because we have no assurance of how long we may live.

Besides in this time of high inflation, getting a 32% bigger check (compared to FRA) that is COLA'd is rather comforting. YMMV.
Click to expand...
No one should ever buy an annuity before delaying ss first .

there is no commercial annuity one can buy that pays as much , can transfer to a spouse and is cola adjusted …for the amount in checks you give up delaying ss you couldn’t find a better annuity deal
 
debodun said:
I've lost over $10K the last 2 months on my investment account. Can anyone explain this?
Click to expand...
I do sympathize with you. In my case, I was eagerly looking forward to retirement in June 2022. However, covid punched me out in Sept, 2021.

So, I had to yank all my 401K out to help me make it till August, 2022. Luckily for ne, the market didn't tank till after I got the money.

There's still company match I had to leave in (5 year time limit) and its lost $200+ but as I'm out of the employment market, I'm not hurting.
 
The fed always over does things both up and down ….

it also can take 1 to 2 years for rate changes to finally have an effect on the economy .

watch as the fed over does things and has to reverse course with rates
 
I just read the Federal Reserve Bank is losing money. It seems their interest payments are higher than their interest income. Imagine that!

All I can say is that today's interest rates are just starting to approach the rates that I experienced for most of my life until 2008. IOW, we are getting back to a more normal interest rate environment. The War on Savers may be over, or at least we have a cease fire in place.
 


Back
Top