New strain of virus
- Thread starter Sunny
- Start date
Nathan
SF VIP
- Location
- High Desert- Calif.
Virus' in general mutate wildly fast, so...standby for more global shutdown.
hollydolly
SF VIP
- Location
- London England
Gawd alone knows, ...no-one has even told us.
I was shouting at the TV this afternoon when BJ was announcing about this new 'mutant' version..saying..how come your medical advisors didn't know about this mutant variety 2 days ago when you announced that we were going into Tier 3 and able to celebrate Christmas in family bubbles for 5 days ? ...all very odd to me.. how come this mutant variety is suddenly only here in the south..? ..too many questions left unanswered
So what's the point of a vaccination? The common flu virus mutates also and getting a vaccination for it is like trying to hit a moving target. We are in it for the long haul with covid I'm afraid.
What is the new Covid strain – and will vaccines work against it?
Testing of the new variant will take weeks, but scientists don’t expect it to cause more severe disease or be resistant to the vaccine.Viruses mutate all the time. Most of the new variants die out. Sometimes they spread without altering the virus’s behaviour. Very occasionally, they trigger dramatic changes.
And the question now facing scientists is straightforward: does variant VUI-202012/01 fall into this last category? Does it represent an increased health risk? Or has its recent rapid spread through southern England occurred because it has arisen in people who are infecting a lot of other people, possibly because they are ignoring Covid-19 restrictions?
These key questions, debated last week after health secretary Matt Hancock revealed the existence of the new variant, were answered firmly yesterday, by the government’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty.
“As a result of the rapid spread of the new variant, preliminary modelling data and rapidly rising incidence rates in the south-east,” he announced, “the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) now considers that the new strain can spread more quickly. We have alerted the World Health Organization and are continuing to analyse the available data to improve our understanding.”
These analyses will involve scientists growing the new strain in laboratories, studying its antibody responses and testing its cross-reactions with Covid-19 vaccines. In addition, health officials are now carrying out random sequencing of samples from positive cases across the country in order to survey its spread through the nation and to build up regional maps of its prevalence. This will take at least two weeks.
The appearance of the new variant is alarming – though it should be noted that there have been several previous mutations of Covid-19. Last month, the Danish government culled millions of mink after it emerged that hundreds of Covid-19 cases were associated with Sars-CoV-2 variants carried by farmed mink. And in October, analyses suggested a coronavirus variant that originated in Spanish farm workers spread rapidly through Europe and accounted for most UK cases.
In neither case was it found that these variants increased transmission of the disease. However, it is now clear that this not the case for variant VUI-202012/01. What scientists must now tackle are concerns about the impact of the new variant – in particular whether it will lead to an increase in cases of severe Covid illness or actually result in fewer cases. The other big issue is whether the new variant will be able to bypass the protection offered by the Covid-19 vaccines now being administered across Britain.
“If the new variant was going to have a big impact on disease severity, we would have seen that by now,” said Ewan Birney, deputy director general of the European Molecular Biology Laboratory and joint director of its European Bioinformatics Institute in Cambridge.
“Hospital cases as a proportion of numbers of infections would have either rocketed or dropped dramatically. Neither has happened, so we can conclude that the impact on numbers of severe cases is likely to be modest: slightly more or slightly fewer.”
In addition, Birney said the vaccines have been tested with many variants of the virus circulating. “So there is every reason to think that the vaccines will still work against this new strain, though obviously that needs to be tested thoroughly.”
Exactly where the variant first appeared is not known. It may simply be that Britain’s extremely robust virus surveillance system spotted it before other nations did. “However, it is just as likely that the mutations that created this variant occurred in the UK and that is why we have seen it first,” added Birney.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ovid-strain-and-will-vaccines-work-against-it
Here's a little bit more about the new strain, still a lot of uncertainty.
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857
Don M.
SF VIP
- Location
- central Missouri
I suspect that this virus will be much like the Flu, and continually "mutate" for quite some time....requiring a different vaccine every year or two. We will have a better idea of how effective these current vaccines are, in coming months, but I won't be surprised if this isn't a continuing "battle" for many years.
If that happens, people would be likely to lose faith in this and future "Medical Breakthroughs." And that may include people who have a great deal of confidence in medicine.
hollydolly
SF VIP
- Location
- London England
thanks for that SB.
..as I suspected they knew of this new variant in not only SE England but also Wales and Scotland by the 13th of December which was before they put us into Tier 3 from Tier 2 and told the country we could all have a 5 day Christmas bubble with family from different households, and people could get to see their elderly family members.. and so everyone made arrangements to do that, ... and 5 days later they shut that down with only ''hours'' notice...If it means that this mutant version will be contained of course I'm all for the lockdown, but it's very suspicious to most of us here that they knew about this a clear week ago, yet not only led people to believe they would finally get to see family members they've not seen for up to a year ( especially those in care homes) but actively encouraged everyone to arrange it.. just then to pull the rug away with almost no notice...
SilentSoul
Member
I'm sure it takes time to investigate to see what's going on when something new like this pops up. Don't you think?thanks for that SB.
If it means that this mutant version will be contained of course I'm all for the lockdown, but it's very suspicious to most of us here that they knew about this a clear week ago, yet not only led people to believe they would finally get to see family members they've not seen for up to a year ( especially those in care homes) but actively encouraged everyone to arrange it.. just then to pull the rug away with almost no notice...
hollydolly
SF VIP
- Location
- London England
of course, I agree.... but when they first learned of it they should have informed the population of it, instead they played it off as nothing too serious and put the country into Tier 3... and then waiting a week to inform the popualtion, by which time there's been millions of movement to all parts of this country and people in and out of the country too
SilentSoul
Member
Governmental involvement has been quite frustrating over the past few months. I just wish they would be straight with us and fix the issues at hand to avoid such heavy casualties.
StarSong
Awkward is my Superpower
- Location
- Los Angeles Suburbs
I wonder if people who've recovered from one strain of COVID are getting sick with this newer strain.
Are their antibodies sufficiently broad to fight off another strain?
Has there been any info on this yet? (I haven't seen any.)
Are their antibodies sufficiently broad to fight off another strain?
Has there been any info on this yet? (I haven't seen any.)