November - Best Job Numbers in Months, Maybe Years...Encouraging Signs of Momentum

SeaBreeze

SeaBreeze

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This November has the best job numbers in months, maybe years...http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/06/u...ng-signs-of-momentum.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=0


The November jobs numbers from the federal agency, released Friday morning, are the best all-around news about the state of the American economy in months, and maybe years.

Indeed, it is in the details of what make this report a good one that you find evidence for momentum in the economy.In short, for the last couple of years, there has been great progress in reducing the unemployment rate, but it was accomplished in part because people left the job market, and it was not accompanied by any meaningful gains in wages.

There have been anecdotal hints for months that employers are facing new pressure to raise workers’ wages as the job market has gotten tighter. And Friday’s report is the first piece of real evidence in the official government data that it’s happening.
In November, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8 percent, but almost all the other measures of the labor market pointed to an improving composition of the job market: Employers added more positions, and at higher hourly wages. If the November trend is sustained, the unemployment rate may not fall much in the months ahead, but Americans will be a lot happier.
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I was reading on this site: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-06/jobs-shale-debt-and-minsky and the writer talks about how if oil continues to go down the result will be a cessation of funding for shale gas production and exploration which will result in job losses. He writes that based on past ultra rosy projections of future growth of the shale industries, those corporations heavily leveraged their companies and again, if the price of oil continues to slide and they can't cover their debts, bankruptcys may/will be the result and you know what happens to employees when a company goes bankrupt. Unless of course all those producers can get bailed out by the government out of the taxpayers 's pocket. He even points out that most of the job increases seen have been of two sorts, either related to the energy industry, 93% over the last ten years (which thanks to the Saudi's is teetering on the top of a major downhill slide) and low paying and often part time jobs in the service industry.

And according to this, from the link:

'...While the seasonally-adjusted headline Establishment Survey payroll print reported by the BLS moments ago may be indicative of an economy which the Fed will soon have to temper in an attempt to cool down, a closer read of the November payrolls report shows several other things that were not quite as rosy. First, the Household Survey was nowhere close to confirming the Establishment Survey data, suggesting jobs rose only by 4K from 147,283K to 147,287K, and furthermore, the breakdown was skewed fully in favor of Part-Time jobs, which rose by 77K while Full-Time jobs declined by 150K....'



the author seems to be questioning the validity of any jobs reports. Reports are skewed according to their purpose very often and in this case, the purpose is to reassure the public.
 
There are too many out of the documented workforce for a lot of statistics to have any meaning other than average pay. The days are gone where you can go to a company/employer start at the bottom part time and turn it into a career. I see a lot of off book work that includes cash. Many people are now happy to scarf up money any way possible which is dangerous because this mindset could lead to criminal behavior in a heartbeat. Even a lot of the school and licensing requirement has gotten too expensive for seemingly uncomplex jobs .
 

You made a good point about undocumented non-workers. If they aren't getting a government check anymore and haven't been able to get a job, they just 'disappear' don't they? Or do they? My guess is they're still here but living in shelters, on the street, in their cars or on relatives couches. I can't imagine a life like that. It's one thing to be a couch-surfer when you're a teen and up for adventure and no ties, but that gets old really fast.
 
I think when the housing bubble finally burst along with the economy that cleaned out the remaining old era/school workforce. That is those that advanced into white collar management without a 4 year/advanced degree and many tradesman with minimal training & licensing requirements. It is those that did not beef up their professional documentation on their resume that seem to be hurting the most because it's an employers market. They can be picky/demanding on job requirements/qualification simply because they can.

I know several people who advanced into middle management over the last couple of decades actually once they were laid off they never got back into middle management partly because of age(yes there is age discrimination legal or not) and they did not beef up their academic resume. One guy recovered taking a couple of part time jobs as soon as unemployment ran out which turned into other opportunities and I know others who were 99 weekers let their resume stagnate for two years wonder why they cannot get back into management or the documented workforce because it's true that many employers do not like gaps in employment or don't like hiring those with more than a few months out of a job. It's easier to get a job when you have a job.
 
Thanks, SB, for this positive report, there is no denying the numbers, showing that our economy has steadily improved. One can only image how much better it would have been if the 'do nothing' congress had worked with President Obama.
 
Statistics can be misleading and manipulated. With any government or corporate release of numbers always read the fine print and/or footnotes. 'Seasonal Adjustments' or lack of that qualification affects the jobs report as it did here. With season adjustments the number is around 203,000 not the 300,000 plus number here.

http://nypost.com/2014/12/05/even-the-labor-department-cant-explain-the-latest-job-report/

When statistics are compared to previous numbers you must remember/account for what the previous numbers actually said. A better comparison might be longer term comparisons rather than monthly or quarterly. And always keep into how those statistics were calculated and who released them.
 
These are old charts, doesn't show the growth for the last few months......

Red columns point to monthly job totals under the Bush administration, while blue columns point to job totals under the Obama administration:


 
WhatInThe said:
Statistics can be misleading and manipulated. With any government or corporate release of numbers always read the fine print and/or footnotes. 'Seasonal Adjustments' or lack of that qualification affects the jobs report as it did here. With season adjustments the number is around 203,000 not the 300,000 plus number here.

http://nypost.com/2014/12/05/even-the-labor-department-cant-explain-the-latest-job-report/

When statistics are compared to previous numbers you must remember/account for what the previous numbers actually said. A better comparison might be longer term comparisons rather than monthly or quarterly. And always keep into how those statistics were calculated and who released them.
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Just read through your link and it sounds like someone(?) is seriously screwing with the numbers that got reported. Gosh, who might want to do that huh?
 
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