Remember Sweden - They treated the virus as no big deal...

[Em in Ohio]

Now, they have over 4 times the deaths of neighboring countries.

COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Has Sweden's COVID-19 Strategy Backfired?
by Niall McCarthy,
Jun 3, 2020

"Anders Tegnell, Sweden's chief epidemiologist, has acknowledged that too many people have died in the country due to COVID-19. Tegnell was key in developing Sweden's more relaxed strategy which saw bars, shops, cafes and gyms remain open while the rest of Europe locked down, which he criticised as being unsustainable. Some restrictions were indeed imposed in Sweden with schools closing for over-16s but the public were generally trusted to remain responsible and carry out physical distancing without government enforcement.

During a radio interview, Tegnell said that "if we were to encounter the same disease again, knowing exactly what we know about it today, I think we would settle on doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done." His comments come as figures show Sweden's per capita death rate being the highest worldwide in the seven days to June 02. The government has now given in to opposition pressure and said it will launch an investigation into how COVID-19 was handled.
So how does Sweden's more relaxed approach to the pandemic compare with neighbouring countries?"

The latest data from the Johns Hopkins University shows that as of June 01, Sweden had 43.24 deaths per 100,000 of its population. That's in stark contrast to Denmark and Finland who have recorded less than 10 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants and Norway which has had less than 5. Last week, Denmark and Norway said they would reopen tourism between their two countries from June 15 but that Sweden would continue to face restrictions."

 

[Warrigal]

The Swedes should have taken the pandemic more seriously at the beginning. They had every chance to do so and were well placed but "fun loving" Swedes didn't want to. Pleasure often comes at a cost.

 

[grahamg]

I disagree with more or less everything being said, for a number of reasons.

No one knows yet how many lives will be taken in any country before this worldwide pandemic is over, (not to mention the deaths attributable to fears caused by lockdown, people with heart conditions, or cancer not getting treated etc.).

The two countries chosen to compare to Sweden have low death rates now because of the measures they took, but New Zealand reporting zero deaths, and virus eliminated faces a future where travel by its citizens to anywhere in the world won't pose a threat to the places they're going, but coming home again threatens NZ doesnt it, so they will have to be quarantined, assuming there are affordable flights to take them anywhere. All the time their country will remain under threat, and if asymptomatic citizens start shedding the virus again, or it gets into the country again by other avrnues, they won't be all that much better off than anywhere else, unless they wish to lock themselves down and never leave their remotish island/islands (were that possible, no rugby tournaments for example outside their country would be too much to endure).

No one knows how this pandemic will play out longterm, diseasewise, but economically it is becoming more obvious, and Sweden avoiding lockdown must have some benefits to reap there, plus mental health benefits I'd have thought. Jumping on a bandwagon to assert "we scientists got it right", when at least some of Sweden's scientists are saying "its too early to tell, wait a year or so, before jumping to conclusions", I'm in their camp on this one, there is pain all around for everyone on this pandemic front, and no expert knows it all, even if their funding depends upon asserting they have the correct computer model etc.

 

[Warrigal]

IMO health considerations come first; after that economic ones.

I'm not a fan of our prime minister but after some hesitation at first, he did listen to the medical experts and, via the mechanism of a national cabinet consisting of appropriate ministers from the federal and state governments, decisions were made that were effective in keeping the infection rates down to manageable numbers.

The death rate has stalled at 103 nationally for the past 17 days with less that a handful of new cases in the past week. By the middle of next week all states bar Western Australia will have opened their borders and Australia and New Zealand will permit mutual travel with some precautions such as temperature checks and information to facilitate contact tracing should someone prove positive for the virus. This so called South Sea Bubble will be expanded to include Pacific Islanders in the near future.

The governments have dug deep to provide support for people and businesses most affected by the shutdown. This has meant kissing a budget surplus goodbye. The Treasurer is very crest fallen but he shouldn't beat himself over this. We will come out of this economic crisis better than most and we have looked after the population's health and welfare. By 'we' I mean the governments and the Australian people working together out of concern for each other.

I think we got our priorities right and if we face a second wave, we are now ready to meet it head on.

 

[Been There]

As of today, Arizona is on the verge of calling it a State of Emergency for their state.

 

[StarSong]

IMO health considerations come first; after that economic ones.

I'm not a fan of our prime minister but after some hesitation at first, he did listen to the medical experts and, via the mechanism of a national cabinet consisting of appropriate ministers from the federal and state governments, decisions were made that were effective in keeping the infection rates down to manageable numbers.

The death rate has stalled at 103 nationally for the past 17 days with less that a handful of new cases in the past week. By the middle of next week all states bar Western Australia will have opened their borders and Australia and New Zealand will permit mutual travel with some precautions such as temperature checks and information to facilitate contact tracing should someone prove positive for the virus. This so called South Sea Bubble will be expanded to include Pacific Islanders in the near future.

The governments have dug deep to provide support for people and businesses most affected by the shutdown. This has meant kissing a budget surplus goodbye. The Treasurer is very crest fallen but he shouldn't beat himself over this. We will come out of this economic crisis better than most and we have looked after the population's health and welfare. By 'we' I mean the governments and the Australian people working together out of concern for each other.

I think we got our priorities right and if we face a second wave, we are now ready to meet it head on.

Australia and New Zealand are the envy of most of the world. I applaud your government and citizens for getting this right. Kudos.

 

[LindaB]

I am in favor of the way Governor Cooper in North Carolina has handled things. However, since the beginning of our Phase 2 reopenings our virus numbers have skyrocketed. We have broken records for the last week. Our hospitals are beginning to feel the effects. I know we are all stir crazy and the economy has to get back to some sustainable point but the cost to humanity is staggering, mainly because people aren't smart enough to simply take some precautions on their own that aren't government mandated.
People are out and about in groups, no masks, eating at restaurants with friends, etc, going about their life as if nothing of any consequence is happening and we are seeing the results of our stupidity.
The RNC has moved their convention from here in Charlotte to Jacksonville, Florida because the Governor asked for a plan to limit the crowd and apply some form is social distancing. The administration refused to comply. It is interesting to note, however, according to NPR news that the administration is requiring attendees to sign a waiver releasing them from liability in the event that they may contract the coronavirus.

 

[LindaB]

IMO health considerations come first; after that economic ones.

I'm not a fan of our prime minister but after some hesitation at first, he did listen to the medical experts and, via the mechanism of a national cabinet consisting of appropriate ministers from the federal and state governments, decisions were made that were effective in keeping the infection rates down to manageable numbers.

The death rate has stalled at 103 nationally for the past 17 days with less that a handful of new cases in the past week. By the middle of next week all states bar Western Australia will have opened their borders and Australia and New Zealand will permit mutual travel with some precautions such as temperature checks and information to facilitate contact tracing should someone prove positive for the virus. This so called South Sea Bubble will be expanded to include Pacific Islanders in the near future.

The governments have dug deep to provide support for people and businesses most affected by the shutdown. This has meant kissing a budget surplus goodbye. The Treasurer is very crest fallen but he shouldn't beat himself over this. We will come out of this economic crisis better than most and we have looked after the population's health and welfare. By 'we' I mean the governments and the Australian people working together out of concern for each other.

I think we got our priorities right and if we face a second wave, we are now ready to meet it head on.

According to the NC DHHS, Dr. Mandy Cohen, our state is just hitting the peak of our first wave of this disease.

 

[Aunt Marg]

Now, they have over 4 times the deaths of neighboring countries.

COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Has Sweden's COVID-19 Strategy Backfired?
by Niall McCarthy,
Jun 3, 2020

"Anders Tegnell, Sweden's chief epidemiologist, has acknowledged that too many people have died in the country due to COVID-19. Tegnell was key in developing Sweden's more relaxed strategy which saw bars, shops, cafes and gyms remain open while the rest of Europe locked down, which he criticised as being unsustainable. Some restrictions were indeed imposed in Sweden with schools closing for over-16s but the public were generally trusted to remain responsible and carry out physical distancing without government enforcement.

During a radio interview, Tegnell said that "if we were to encounter the same disease again, knowing exactly what we know about it today, I think we would settle on doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done." His comments come as figures show Sweden's per capita death rate being the highest worldwide in the seven days to June 02. The government has now given in to opposition pressure and said it will launch an investigation into how COVID-19 was handled.
So how does Sweden's more relaxed approach to the pandemic compare with neighbouring countries?"

The latest data from the Johns Hopkins University shows that as of June 01, Sweden had 43.24 deaths per 100,000 of its population. That's in stark contrast to Denmark and Finland who have recorded less than 10 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants and Norway which has had less than 5. Last week, Denmark and Norway said they would reopen tourism between their two countries from June 15 but that Sweden would continue to face restrictions."

I just listened to an excellent radio broadcast as of last night, and the lady that was on said her and her husband are moving away from Sweden the first opportunity they have. She mentioned that the hospitals and medical approach to the Covid-19 pandemic is, and has been deplorable.

 

[grahamg]

I've been reading an article in The Times newspaper UK, written by a former conservative party politician, and regular contributor to the paper.

If you boil right down what he has to say it amounts to "livelihoods matters as well as lives", (he uses more or less those words). He tries to shine a light on the role scientist have had in advising on lockdown rules he suggests were perhaps unnecessary here, because the peak of new infections was reached before the lockdown came, he says with the benefit of hindsight obviously. He comments on the unreliability of trying to compare death rates from the Coronavirus in different countries, with different means of recording cases etc. He asks four big questions it would be fair to give an opinion upon, starting with, " Did you put forward your views against the lockdown before it started?", answer yes tentatively. Second question: " How can you take risks with peoples lives", (the answer being the one about "livelihoods matter as well as lives...". Third question "how might the scientists modelling of the pandemic be wrong", and he suggests insufficient attention was given to possible variations in potency of infected people to spread infection. The fourth question is " What if we are hit with a massive second wave", and he answers he expects there to be localised outbreaks but not a tsunami. He accepts if its a tsunami he will have been proved wrong.

I mention all this to show there are dissenting views from those being put forward as "mainstream"(maybe fairly?).

 

[LindaB]

I've been reading an article in The Times newspaper UK, written by a former conservative party politician, and regular contributor to the paper.

If you boil right down what he has to say it amounts to "livelihoods matters as well as lives", (he uses more or less those words). He tries to shine a light on the role scientist have had in advising on lockdown rules he suggests were perhaps unnecessary here, because the peak of new infections was reached before the lockdown came, he says with the benefit of hindsight obviously. He comments on the unreliability of trying to compare death rates from the Coronavirus in different countries, with different means of recording cases etc. He asks four big questions it would be fair to give an opinion upon, starting with, " Did you put forward your views against the lockdown before it started?", answer yes tentatively. Second question: " How can you take risks with peoples lives", (the answer being the one about "livelihoods matter as well as lives...". Third question "how might the scientists modelling of the pandemic be wrong", and he suggests insufficient attention was given to possible variations in potency of infected people to spread infection. The fourth question is " What if we are hit with a massive second wave", and he answers he expects there to be localised outbreaks but not a tsunami. He accepts if its a tsunami he will have been proved wrong.

I mention all this to show there are dissenting views from those being put forward as "mainstream"(maybe fairly?).

There are always dissenting views, his is in the minority. Are we to subscribe to the view that the lives lost and the overwhelming numbers of the sick and dying are simply collateral damage necessary to bring the economy "back to normal?"

 

[Aunt Bea]

It's sad that Sweden's experiment with herd immunity and lack of precaution to protect the elderly didn't work as planned.

I wonder if we would have needed to close our economy if we had been better prepared and more knowledgeable about how to handle a public health pandemic.

Looking back it seems like taking the simple basic precautions of wearing masks, washing hands, and social distancing have done more good than some of the more drastic steps taken to stop the spread of the virus.

I'm curious to see if doubling down on the basic precautions will help to stop the spikes that are happening in some states or if we will have to step back and slow the reopening.

 

[Em in Ohio]

It's sad that Sweden's experiment with herd immunity and lack of precaution to protect the elderly didn't work as planned.

I wonder if we would have needed to close our economy if we had been better prepared and more knowledgeable about how to handle a public health pandemic.

Looking back it seems like taking the simple basic precautions of wearing masks, washing hands, and social distancing have done more good than some of the more drastic steps taken to stop the spread of the virus.

I'm curious to see if doubling down on the basic precautions will help to stop the spikes that are happening in some states or if we will have to step back and slow the reopening.

If people voluntarily complied with the wearing of masks, washing hands, and social distancing, perhaps you are right and less drastic steps might have worked. Unfortunately, even when mandated, multitudes object to being told what to do and act in defiance of common sense.

 

[grahamg]

If people voluntarily complied with the wearing of masks, washing hands, and social distancing, perhaps you are right and less drastic steps might have worked. Unfortunately, even when mandated, multitudes object to being told what to do and act in defiance of common sense.

It seems to be being ignored that "herd immunity" may yet prove the only way our world gets anywhere like back to normal. A contributor to a satirical magazine in the UK pointed out the weaknesses in the arguments for closing school, and one aspect of keeping them open was to assist in the process of building up the herd immunity, (the contributor is a real doctor calling themselves MD). Again you can't ignore altogether the Mathew Parris comment "Lives matter, AND livelihoods matter".

 

[Em in Ohio]

It seems to be being ignored that "herd immunity" may yet prove the only way our world gets anywhere like back to normal. A contributor to a satirical magazine in the UK pointed out the weaknesses in the arguments for closing school, and one aspect of keeping them open was to assist in the process of building up the herd immunity, (the contributor is a real doctor calling themselves MD). Again you can't ignore altogether the Mathew Parris comment "Lives matter, AND livelihoods matter".

Do you know what happens to a herd with mad cow disease? (Sorry, that just popped into my head.) I've been having trouble following your train of thought in some recent posts. Yes, I agree: Lives matter and livelihoods matter. I'm just not sure I understand your other posts.

 

[LindaB]

It seems to be being ignored that "herd immunity" may yet prove the only way our world gets anywhere like back to normal. A contributor to a satirical magazine in the UK pointed out the weaknesses in the arguments for closing school, and one aspect of keeping them open was to assist in the process of building up the herd immunity, (the contributor is a real doctor calling themselves MD). Again you can't ignore altogether the Mathew Parris comment "Lives matter, AND livelihoods matter".

Some medical insight.
What is herd immunity?
When most of a population is immune to an infectious disease, this provides indirect protection.
For infections without a vaccine, even if many adults have developed immunity because of prior infection, the disease can still circulate among children and can still infect those with weakened immune systems.
As with any other infection, there are two ways to achieve herd immunity: A large proportion of the population either gets infected or gets a protective vaccine. Based on early estimates of this virus’s infectiousness, we will likely need at least 70% of the population to be immune to have herd protection.

• In the worst case (for example, if we do not perform physical distancing or enact other measures to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2), the virus can infect this many people in a matter of a few months. This would overwhelm our hospitals and lead to high death rates.
• In the best case, we maintain current levels of infection—or even reduce these levels—until a vaccine becomes available. This will take concerted effort on the part of the entire population, with some level of continued physical distancing for an extended period, likely a year or longer, before a highly effective vaccine can be developed, tested, and mass produced.
• The most likely case is somewhere in the middle, where infection rates rise and fall over time; we may relax social distancing measures when numbers of infections fall, and then may need to re-implement these measures as numbers increase again. Prolonged effort will be required to prevent major outbreaks until a vaccine is developed. Even then, SARS-CoV-2 could still infect children before they can be vaccinated or adults after their immunity wanes. But it is unlikely in the long term to have the explosive spread that we are seeing right now because much of the population will be immune in the future.

Why is getting infected with SARS-CoV-2 to “get it over with” not a good idea?
With some other diseases, such as chickenpox before the varicella vaccine was developed, people sometimes exposed themselves intentionally as a way of achieving immunity. For less severe diseases, this approach might be reasonable. But the situation for SARS-CoV-2 is very different: COVID-19 carries a much higher risk of severe disease and even death.
The death rate for COVID-19 is unknown, but current data suggest it is 10 times higher than for the flu. It’s higher still among vulnerable groups like the elderly and people with weakened immune systems. Even if the same number of people ultimately get infected with SARS-CoV-2, it’s best to space those infections over time to avoid overwhelming our doctors and hospitals. Quicker is not always better, as we have seen in previous epidemics with high mortality rates, such as the 1918 Flu pandemic.
What should we expect in the coming months?
Scientists are working furiously to develop an effective vaccine. In the meantime, as most of the population remains uninfected with SARS-CoV-2, some measures will be required to prevent explosive outbreaks like those we’ve seen in places like New York City.
The physical distancing measures needed may vary over time and will not always need to be as strict as our current shelter-in-place laws. But unless we want hundreds of millions of Americans to get infected with SARS-CoV-2 (what it would take to establish herd immunity in this country), life is not likely to be completely “normal” again until a vaccine can be developed and widely distributed.
Gypsyamber D’Souza is a professor and David Dowdy an associate professor in Epidemiology at the Bloomberg School.
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[Warrigal]

It occurs to me that there is another way that herd immunity can develop. The virus becomes an agent in the process of natural selection. It kills off all of the more susceptible people leaving only those who have the right genes to survive the disease. Thereafter, by successive culls of the least affected, in three or four generations we are all able to live with the virus - until it too mutates .

Mass vaccination of countries where the virus is active is the goal, and that is not just around the corner. Even if a vaccine is developed, how long before it can be rolled out to the whole world? How long did it take to eradicate smallpox?

 

[grahamg]

It occurs to me that there is another way that herd immunity can develop. The virus becomes an agent in the process of natural selection. It kills off all of the more susceptible people leaving only those who have the right genes to survive the disease. Thereafter, by successive culls of the least affected, in three or four generations we are all able to live with the virus - until it too mutates .
Mass vaccination of countries where the virus is active is the goal, and that is not just around the corner. Even if a vaccine is developed, how long before it can be rolled out to the whole world? How long did it take to eradicate smallpox?

Thanks to the earlier post explaining the pitfalls associated with herd immunity. My point remains no responsible western government could have even contemplated refusing to enact lockdown laws, if there were not some prospect, as some of its scientists or experts think, their policy might turn out to be a reasonable, and reasoned decision in the long term, (over a year before any strong conclusions should be drawn). .

 

[grahamg]

Do you know what happens to a herd with mad cow disease? (Sorry, that just popped into my head.) I've been having trouble following your train of thought in some recent posts. Yes, I agree: Lives matter and livelihoods matter. I'm just not sure I understand your other posts.

Mad cow disease was of course caused by a prion, a protein replicating itself in the brain thus doing damage, and so indestructible you could place the prion in a flame, and then introduce it into the brain and it would still be able to replicate and cause the fatal disease. Hence "prion disease" is about as different as any viral disease there is, with maybe the only "similarity", or at least similar challenge it posed to our governments, was the " perceived risk" had to be the governments focus, rather than the real risk posed by mad cow disease, especially once it was discovered transmission of the prion could be prevented by removing brain and spinal chord tissues from the food chain. BTW I appreciate your levity above. .

 

[Em in Ohio]

Mad cow disease was of course caused by a prion, a protein replicating itself in the brain thus doing damage, and so indestructible you could place the prion in a flame, and then introduce it into the brain and it would still be able to replicate and cause the fatal disease. Hence "prion disease" is about as different as any viral disease there is, with maybe the only "similarity", or at least similar challenge it posed to our governments, was the " perceived risk" had to be the governments focus, rather than the real risk posed by mad cow disease, especially once it was discovered transmission of the prion could be prevented by removing brain and spinal chord tissues from the food chain. BTW I appreciate your levity above. .

I'm glad you know that I was just playing off the word 'herd!' I actually had a patient with Mad Cow Disease - very traumatic. As for 'herd immunity,' I just don't see that happening unless a universally effective vaccine is created and distributed world-wide. The alternative is to have the vast majority of folks accidentally or purposely exposed to the virus. Making more people sick seems counter-productive to me.

 

[grahamg]

I'm glad you know that I was just playing off the word 'herd!' I actually had a patient with Mad Cow Disease - very traumatic. As for 'herd immunity,' I just don't see that happening unless a universally effective vaccine is created and distributed world-wide. The alternative is to have the vast majority of folks accidentally or purposely exposed to the virus. Making more people sick seems counter-productive to me.

You're not "making people sick", or I can't see how it can be described that way.
If this pandemic virus cannot ultimately be controlled, and " herd immunity", as I understand it and we've had described on the thread, (pitfalls and all), becomes the only way forward without a successful vaccine, the choice is never ending lockdown and allowing herd immunity to develop.

 

[StarSong]

...the choice is never ending lockdown and allowing herd immunity to develop.

@grahamg
Other choices, strategies and possibilities:
Effective treatments are developed
Virus morphs into something more treatable and/or less dangerous
People continue to wear masks in public and employ social distancing until the threat is gone.
Curtail travel.

NZ & Australia managed to contain and virtually eradicate the virus. There's no reason the rest of the world can't follow their template.

 

[grahamg]

@grahamg
Other choices, strategies and possibilities:Effective treatments are developed Virus morphs into something more treatable and/or less dangerous.People continue to wear masks in public and employ social distancing until the threat is gone. Curtail travel.
NZ & Australia managed to contain and virtually eradicate the virus. There's no reason the rest of the world can't follow their template.

I'll suggest some reasons why other countries might not be able to achieve what I still insist is a temporary eradication in NZ and Oz, lower population density, fewer movements across borders, both isolated by seas around them, smaller problem at the outset (enough reasons?).

 

[StarSong]

I'll suggest some reasons why other countries might not be able to achieve what I still insist is a temporary eradication in NZ and Oz, lower population density, fewer movements across borders, both isolated by seas around them, smaller problem at the outset (enough reasons?).

They also closed their borders very early, enacted strict contact tracing and tested like crazy. Granted it may have been easier for them than for some others, but we should give credit where it's due.

 

[grahamg]

They also closed their borders very early, enacted strict contact tracing and tested like crazy. Granted it may have been easier for them than for some others, but we should give credit where it's due.

No difficulty with anyone giving them credit, but to lobour the point, it is too early to be sure Sweden not following them is going to fare worse in a years time, if no successful vaccine, or other treatment is found. .