Russian inflation is raging at 60%, not the reported 3.6%

JustDave

JustDave

Well-known Member
Based on his own calculations, Hanke gauged the Russia's annual rate of consumer-price increases at an eye-watering 60%, far above the 3.6% level most recently reported by the Bank of Russia.
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This is only an estimate by one economist from Johns Hopkins University. I don't know how many other experts agree, but it's quite a large disparity. Maybe it's a case of, "Tell a lie big enough, and people will believe it." Or maybe one economist got it wrong. There are a number of reasons given that support this conclusion, however. Still take this with a dash of skepticism.

https://markets.businessinsider.com...n-60-percent-falling-ruble-steve-hanke-2023-7
 

Historically it's a given: any dictatorship or tyranny, you can't trust their statistics.

When one keeps executing opponents, pretty soon all you're left with is "yes men" around you. Nobody wants to be in the "he always shoots the messenger" position of bringing bad news. So....they lie.

Is it dishonorable? Unethical? Dishonest? Cowardly? Yup, all those and more. But they want to stay alive, and very likely keep their families alive as well.
 
Using the USD to gauge another country's impact of trade is all well and done, if the USA is one of it largest trading partners and the USD is gaining strength against that country's currency.

The USA is not one of Russia's biggest trading partners and the Russian ruble, after spikes and dips is near pre invasion levels with its largest trading partners (China and Eastern Europe).

Considering Russia has a very large underground economy, any type of "official" report can be suspect.
A weakening currency tends to stoke inflationary pressures because it drives up the costs of imported goods.
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Take it with a grain of salt. Watched a video of a Small town type grocery store in the Moscow region and did a quick comparison to the local Wal Mart. (remember, this is a small store vs supermarket). Results are interesting to say the least. A few tidbits. (1 ruble today equals .011 US dollar).

Russia - USA
eggs dozen .59 1.14
pasta 16 oz 1.66 1.76
sunflower oil 1.10 7.84 gv**
wheat germ oil 1.21 6.99
gal water .54 (1.3gal 0 1.22 gv**
spice packet .32 . 1.58
flour 4 lbs .77 2.34 5lbs.

** = great value brand
 
I think Just Dave is on the money.....he's one guy and one economists opinion isn't necessarily worth a lot. I'm not saying he's not smart. He is.....but he also felt back in January that the FED should have stopped raising rates then and that would not have been the correct move by a long shot......I also don't think Putin gives a darn about the inflation rate. That isn't going to affect his power base which are rich oligarchs, not the average citizen. Just my two cents.
 
squatting dog said:
Take it with a grain of salt. Watched a video of a Small town type grocery store in the Moscow region and did a quick comparison to the local Wal Mart. (remember, this is a small store vs supermarket). Results are interesting to say the least. A few tidbits. (1 ruble today equals .011 US dollar).

Russia - USA
eggs dozen .59 1.14
pasta 16 oz 1.66 1.76
sunflower oil 1.10 7.84 gv**
wheat germ oil 1.21 6.99
gal water .54 (1.3gal 0 1.22 gv**
spice packet .32 . 1.58
flour 4 lbs .77 2.34 5lbs.

** = great value brand
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The average Russian wages are lower than USA wages, so the base labor adjustment would be something in the range of 2.2:1, in 2022. That dozen eggs would be equivalent of a Russian paying $1.24, or flour at $2.12 for 5 lbs.
 
Russian immigrants are flooding NYC again; men in their forties afraid of being drafted. Living with relatives already here. Bursting at the seams.

2 days ago at local park I was the only English speaker. I should be used to it by now, but sometimes if I hear "Da" one more time I'll..........................

Would welcome a "Si" but it's all "Da." And loads of women & young girls in Burkahs, enough already. Young girls. Already trapped. In America.
 
Russia's inflation as reported by one economist is not the worst the world has ever seen, but it would be extraordinarily high. I can't imagine inflation like Argentina or some of the others. I clearly remember the 70s in the US, and inflation was frightening, but way lower than some countries have seen. I can't fathom something that approaches 100% and beyond.
 
squatting dog said:
Take it with a grain of salt. Watched a video of a Small town type grocery store in the Moscow region and did a quick comparison to the local Wal Mart. (remember, this is a small store vs supermarket). Results are interesting to say the least. A few tidbits. (1 ruble today equals .011 US dollar).

Russia - USA
eggs dozen .59 1.14
pasta 16 oz 1.66 1.76
sunflower oil 1.10 7.84 gv**
wheat germ oil 1.21 6.99
gal water .54 (1.3gal 0 1.22 gv**
spice packet .32 . 1.58
flour 4 lbs .77 2.34 5lbs.

** = great value brand
Click to expand...
How do hourly wages compare? That's a huge factor in calculations like yours! People (my daughter and son-in-law) were appalled at the high prices in Switzerland, as one example, but how much do the Swiss make an hour compared to us?
 
The Swiss do make more than we do in salary but they pay more in taxes as well. We were in Switzerland a few years back and I fully agree with you daughter and son in law.....the prices were insane.
 
Now that's inflation:

According to PBS:

In 1923, at the most fevered moment of the German hyperinflation, the exchange rate between the dollar and the Mark was one trillion Marks to one dollar, and a wheelbarrow full of money would not even buy a newspaper. Most Germans were taken by surprise by the financial tornado.
 
Sure the Russian government lies. No surprise here! However, you should not be surprised if our government is lying to us about certain things. I just don't trust those self-serving old geezers that are lining their pockets and ending up with very fat pensions and benefits. Who said life is FAIR?
 
If it’s illegal to call a ’war’ a ‘war’, well…. Do you really want to stand up on your soapbox in the Kremlin and say that inflation is very high?

Here’s a joke I heard years ago:

An American and a Russian meet at professional conference and eventually get around to comparing freedom in both countries.

Russian: What is so great about your so called Free Speech?

American: I can stand on my soap box outside the White House and yell “President Biden is a jerk!” And nobody will do anything to stop me.

Russian: Comrad, this is no big deal. I also can stand on a soap box in Red Square, yell “President Biden is a Jerk!” and nobody will stop me.
 
The Swiss may pay high taxes and high prices, but they also get a lot for their money. Start with great medical care for a fraction of what we pay in the USA. Add In a very nice old-age pension system.

The French have the Social Contract that works the same way. Pay high taxes and the government will take care of you. That is why so many were upset when the French leaders raised the retirement age a few years. They felt like they had paid for a Mercedes and were given a Renault.
 

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